Yituo Finance-Hawkish views of Federal Reserve officials boost expectations of interest rate hikes

This week, Federal Reserve officials focused on delivering speeches, expressing their views on recent monetary policy. Yesterday, the hawkish views of vote holders such as Dudley boosted the momentum3The expectation of a monthly interest rate hike,USD IndexStrongly organize before Trump's speech. Yesterday, Trump provided a corresponding explanation for increasing military spending, stating that funding will come from reduced overseas aid and other sources, and there will be no increase in fiscal spending. Today Beijing Time10Trump will deliver a speech in Congress, focusing on his attitude towards issues such as border taxes.
Today is the first trading day of the month, and major economies announce their manufacturing industriesPMIData, early Chinese data will affect the demand in the commodity market, thereby affecting the trend of commodity currencies. Follow the United States in the eveningISMManufacturing industryPMIData will further impact3The expected interest rate hike for the month is already relatively clear, but if the data is positive, it will have an impact onUSD IndexThe impact is limited, on the contrary, if the data deviates, it will affect the expectation of interest rate hikes.

The recent general election in the Netherlands is approaching, and the market focus is also shifting towards it. Currently, the candidates are in a dominant position. If elected, the ruling party tends to be anti EU, but the specific implementation of Brexit depends on the effectiveness of its government formation. The market currently expects a small probability of forming a threat to Brexit, but the market will use this news for speculation in the short term.

In terms of specific technical aspects,USD IndexThe daily structure continued to test the middle track of the Bollinger Bands yesterday and rebounded, closing with a small bearish candlestick with a longer downward shadow. Today, the focus is on the impact of Trump's speech on the US dollar. Currently, there is a possibility of continuous volatility without rising, and there is a possibility of waiting for risk events, which also reflects the uncertainty of expected event results. Therefore, both directions are currently possible, and specific attention should be paid to the progress of the events.

The daily structure of the euro against the US dollar is currently in a relatively stable stateUSD IndexSlightly optimistic, with a downward adjustment in early trading today, there is a high probability of further downward movement, but cautious operation, waiting for the event to become clear before choosing an opportunity to participate.

The daily structure of the pound against the US dollar is relatively clear. Yesterday's deep decline swallowed up the previous day's downward shadow and closed at a low level. The probability of inertia decline today is high, which can be reversed1.2390Or current price1.2370Short selling nearby,1.2430Stop loss.

The weekly structure of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar has now broken through10The weekly moving average, with a strong upward attack near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, is still a key focus as the weekly average has not yet closedUSD IndexIf the situation is upward today, then the US and Canada still have upward momentum, and the recent trend judgment needs to be adjusted. The variety is currently waiting for the US dollar index to move in the right direction before conducting further analysis.

The short selling advice given by the New York dollar against the US dollar in the past two days has already achieved good returns in early trading today, with an accelerated decline in the morning. The previous judgment was thatcThe wave of decline has already appeared, continue to short. The entry location can be selected from yesterday's low point0.7170Nearby,0.7210Stop loss.

EFS  Analyst: Chen Yunbo