Banda Asia: Market holds its breath before Trump's speech Calm market brewing storm

According to the latest public opinion survey, centrist presidential candidate Macron will defeat Le Pen in the second round of elections and become the next president of France. A public opinion survey data released by foreign media shows that Macron will take the lead in the second round of the election58%Defeated Le Pen with a high approval rate; And another itemOdoxaThe survey results released by the polling station and Diantong Consulting Company show that Macron will61%than39%Overcoming Le Pen with overwhelming advantage. Since the announcement of the alliance between presidential candidate Macron and experienced centrist politician Behu, Macron's approval rating has further increased; Behu is an experienced veteran of French politics, which will help young people39At the age of, Macron further gained the trust and confidence of some French voters.


In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)Secretary General Balgin stated during his visit to the Nigerian capital Abuja yesterday that currentlyOPECOil producing countries are not as strong in implementing production reduction agreementsOPECMember countries, but still committed to reducing production. Meanwhile, he remains optimistic that the worst period of this cycle has passed. Balgin stated, "All countries participating in the production reduction agreement are committed to reducing production, and we continuously engage with their oil ministers to encourage them to implement production reduction."OPECOil producing countries face certain challenges in monitoring production limits. Regarding the return of shale oil supply in the United States, he believes that“OPECIt is expected that there will be some recovery in US shale oil production, but it is not possible to rapidly surge to the extent of causing global market oversupply


The data that needs attention today is the fourth quarter of FranceGDPAnnual rate initial value, Eurozone2Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate, US Q4PCEPrice index annual rate correction, US Q4 actualGDPRevised annualized quarterly rate, United States1Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate, US2Month ChicagoPMI, USA2The Consumer Confidence Index of the Monthly Consultation Chamber and the United States2Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, President Trump's speech in Congress tomorrow also needs attention.


gold/dollar

Gold rose yesterday and then fell, with a slight daily decline. The spot exchange price was traded at1254Nearby. The US dollar index in the United States1The unexpected decline in sub item data of monthly housing sales and durable goods orders has led to a decline, which once supported gold to break through the high point1260Pass and refresh3A high of two and a half months. However, under the pressure of profit taking and the rebound of the US dollar index due to Kaplan's hawkish comments, gold quickly fell and ultimately closed lower. In addition, the increase in support for French presidential candidate Macron has also put some pressure on gold due to the cooling of political concerns in the eurozone. Follow Today1265Nearby pressure situation, supported below1245Near.

dollar/Japanese yen

dollar/The Japanese yen fluctuated upwards yesterday, with a slight increase in the daily trend. The current exchange rate is trading at112.50Nearby. except112.00The technical buying formed by the checkpoint provides strong support for the exchange rate, and the rebound and rise of the US dollar index supported by Kaplan's hawkish remarks are also important factors supporting the rise of the exchange rate. In addition, political concerns in the eurozone have eased, and the cooling of market risk aversion has also provided some support for the exchange rate. Follow Today113.50Nearby pressure situation, supported below111.50Near.

dollar/Cad

dollar/The Canadian dollar fluctuated upwards yesterday, with a slight daily increase. The spot exchange rate was traded at1.3170Nearby. The hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve official Kaplan overnight were the main reason supporting the rise in the exchange rate. Kaplan said that interest rate hikes should be done sooner rather than later, and the Federal Reserve needs to try to avoid falling behind the yield curve. In addition, investors are concerned about the upcoming announcement of Canada3The expectation that the monthly resolution minutes may release dovish information also provides some support for the exchange rate. Follow Today1.3250Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.3100Near.