EFS-Follow how Trump's congressional debut is capricious

Today we will focus on whether President Trump's first speech in Congress will put forward clear policy proposals, which will directly affect the trend of risky assets. The recent strength of US stocks and commodities has been greatly influenced by the direction of the Trump administration, but it has already been digested too much. Therefore, today's prevention measures may lead to the withdrawal of funds from risky assets due to lack of clear direction or details, resulting in significant market fluctuations.
The current policies that Trump urgently needs to introduce include border tax issues, corporate and middle-class tax cuts, and infrastructure stimulus plans. Yesterday, Trump specifically proposed in his speech to increase military spending, reflecting his policy direction of relying on investment and reducing corporate costs to drive the economy. By analyzing the impact of subsequent policies on the trend of the US dollar at this level, it can be concluded that it needs to maintain a relatively low interest rate environment and exchange rate conditions. A large amount of investment in infrastructure and other areas will increase market liquidity, thereby suppressing the trend of the US dollar. The trade protection policy of border taxes requires a weak US dollar to maintain. Therefore, overall, the medium to long term trend of the US dollar should be dominated by weakness. Due to the expected impact of tax cuts on the economy in the near future, future economic growth and employment issues will be relatively optimistic, which increases the expectation of a recent interest rate hike. Therefore, there is a possibility of a slight strengthening of the US dollar in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risks.

Today's data needs to focus on the evening EurozoneCPIAnd the fourth quarter in the United StatesGDPThe correction value data will have a certain impact on the market, but in the context of Trump's speech, the influence of the data will diminish.

In terms of specific technical aspects,USD IndexThe daily structure tested again yesterday, and after gaining support from the Bollinger Bands, it closed with a rebounding lower shadow and a longer small bearish line. The future structure is more inclined to end the platform type consolidation analyzed earlier and begin to rebound upwards. Target location102.5On the front line, if today falls below yesterday's low due to Trump's speech, it will turn into a bearish trend.

The daily structure of the euro against the US dollar rebounded yesterday, testing the resistance level in the middle track of the Bollinger Bands1.0630After the interval, it fell back and collected a longer upper shadow linekLine, with a bearish pattern, will fall again in the future. There is a high probability of a low before testing, but it can rebound today. Testing yesterday's upper shadow line half percentile1.0610Short selling in nearby light positions,1.0660Stop loss.

The daily structure of GBP/USD experienced a brief break yesterday due to the possible independent referendum in Scotland, but closed above the trend line. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of the break today. If it cannot fall back below the trend line, there is a possibility of a false break and then rising again. On the operational side, it is safest to wait for the short selling operation to fall below yesterday's low. If it hits the short-term moving average today, the trend is expected to reverse and return to an upward trend. The operation of breaking through positions and chasing empty spaces yesterday, set today5The daily moving average stop loss level, if it breaks through, the short order needs to stop loss and leave the market.

The weekly structure of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar was once again impacted upwards by the strengthening of the US dollar yesterday10The weekly moving average maintains its previous downward trend judgment before breaking through, but if it breaks through, short-term strategies need to be adjusted, and the rebound enters a relatively strong cycle, which may still fluctuate within the high range before testing.

Although the USD/JPY closed at a low bullish line yesterday, it has not yet reached the short-term moving average, so the operational strategy remains bearish, which can be seen in the middle of the Bollinger Bands113.1Short selling nearby.113.8Stop loss. Due to the possibility of an upward trend in the US dollar, the risk of short positions in the US and Japan is relatively high, and a strict stop loss strategy is required for light positions during operations.

Although the euro/yen closed a strong rebound against the long bullish line yesterday, it is not a standard bottom swallowing pattern and has not stood above it10Before the daily moving average, there may still be a rebound consolidation. In terms of operation, we can wait and see for testing10We will make specific operations based on the strength after the daily moving average.

The short-term trend is still relatively clear for the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. Currently, after the first round of decline in the daily structure, there has been a volatile platform like consolidation structure. After testing the resistance level of the Bollinger Bands in the middle track, it has begun to return to the downward trend. In the short term, it has started a second round of decline, which can be found in10Continuing to short near the daily moving average, breaking through yesterday's high stop loss and leaving the market. The specific operation is as follows:0.7190Short selling,0.7230Stop loss,0.7020Stop surplus.

EFS  Analyst: Chen Yunbo