EFS-Law staged House of Cards, US President competes for his first congressional appearance

Recently, there have been numerous events and news from Europe and the United States that have affected the financial market. It can be said that after you have finished singing, I have made an appearance, which is exciting and enjoyable. In the just concluded week, Le Pen was still in a joyful state of rising support at the beginning of the week, with increased uncertainty in the eurozone, suppressing the downward trend of the euro; And news of its acceptance of an investigation appeared in the middle of the week, slightly boosting the euro; Subsequently, French centrist leader Fran ç ois withdrew from the campaign and instead supported independent candidate Macron; Over the weekend, Republican candidate Fillon was caught up in the "empty pay gate" incident and began accepting an investigation. This week's flurry of changes shows that independent candidate Macron is the biggest beneficiary. Not only are his two biggest opponents under investigation, but he has also gained support from the centrist after withdrawing. Currently, polls show that his approval rating has begun to rise, approaching Le Pen. The form is simply a reproduction of "House of Cards", and France began writing sequels. Current Le Pen support rate26%, down0.5%; Macron's support rate has increased1%to23.5%; Feiyong is in20.5%The lowest, and influenced by the survey, the support rate may still further decline. If Le Pen takes office, he is likely to follow the example of the UK and the US, start the Brexit process and implement measures such as trade protection. Macron, on the other hand, will tend to be more conservative and implement more fiscal stimulus plans, with the least impact on the euro. Therefore, from the current situation, the impact on the euro is a reduction in risk and a short-term positive. On the Greek side, market evaluation shows that it basically meets the requirements of the European Union andIMFThe requirements and conditions for its assistance have also begun to cool down.
The United States is not willing to be inferior to Europe, and important events have occurred frequently. Trump has announced his first speech in Congress on Tuesday, which will cover several aspects: multilateral trade agreements, border tax issues; Attempt to lift restrictions on the energy industry; The middle class has significantly reduced taxes; Restricting immigration and protecting domestic security; Increase military spending and budget. From the current situation, tax reduction for enterprises and residents remains the most challenging project, and border tax issues should be the focus of its policy promotion. Last week, Trump signed an executive order to begin a crackdown on financial industry regulation, establishing a regulatory task force to investigate excessive regulation that restricts the development of the financial industry. In addition to the above news, the stubborn Trump also went berserk with the news industry, restricting several major news agencies from attending White House press conferences, causing news agencies to express protests. Last week, it also made a speech on currency manipulation against China, which led to protests from the official media of the Chinese government. At present, the biggest impact on the market is the uncertainty of whether its proposals on border taxes and domestic tax cuts can be passed by Congress. The debate on domestic tax cuts will be relatively long and difficult to achieve in the short term. The most important issue is still the border tax. If passed, it will have a significant economic impact on several major trading countries. Therefore, focus on the content of Trump's speech in Congress on Tuesday.

Apart from Trump, the direction of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, although not a mainstream influencing factor, is close to3At the monthly meeting, the expected impact of interest rate hikes on the market will still exist, and the following week is the last week for Federal Reserve officials to express their views on monetary policy before the meeting begins. Therefore, the speeches of Federal Reserve officials will have a certain impact on the market, and will be transmitted to the financial market through the impact of interest rate hikes.

On the UK side, there have been recent reports that Scotland may be3The announcement of an independent referendum in the month has dealt a blow to the trend of the pound. Previously, the Brexit issue had been digested for a long time and its impact on the market has decreased. However, if Scotland holds an independent referendum, it will once again suppress the trend of the pound. As for whether the Scottish independence referendum will join the eurozone, it will have a direct impact on the trend of the euro, and we will continue to monitor it in the future.

There will be a lot of important data, news, and events that will affect the market in the coming week. The most important thing is the speech of US President Trump in Congress on Tuesday, and then we need to pay attention to the movements of the candidates in the French presidential election. As for the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, they are almost daily and will have a certain impact on the market situation for the day. The time is short, and we need to focus on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen in the early hours of Saturday, which will have a significant impact on the market. Investors should be reminded that the US non-agricultural employment data, which everyone is concerned about, will be available in the following week3month10Announced on Friday of this week3month3There is no non farm data released today. In terms of data, the manufacturing industry of each economy at the beginning of the monthPMIThe data and the United States have data for the fourth quarterGDPThe correction value data has a significant impact on the market. The specific events and data time are summarized as follows:

On Monday, at the beginning of the week, the Asian market digested the news from France, Scotland, and the United States over the weekend; Eurozone consumer confidence data; US durable goods order data.

Tuesday, (!!!!) Eurozone2monthCPIAnnual rate; US Q4PCEPrice index annual rate; US Q4GDPAnnual quarterly rate correction value; US President Trump's speech in Congress.

On Wednesday, (!!!!) China's official and Caixin Manufacturing IndustryPMIdata Manufacturing in the UK and EurozonePMIdata U.S.A2monthISMmanufacturingPMIdata1monthPCEPrice index annual rate data. Canada's latest interest rate resolution; Weeklycrude oilAPI、EIAInventory data; The next morning, the Federal Reserve released its economic brown book.

Thursday, (!) Eurozone1Monthly unemployment rate; After Canadian seasonal adjustmentGDPMonthly rate.

Friday, (!!!) Japan1Monthly unemployment rateCPIAnnual rate data; Eurozone1Monthly retail sales data; The next morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen delivered a speech; According to the data from the drilling platform of Oil Service Company, the previous value showed a slowdown in growth rate, with only a slight increase, reflecting insufficient confidence in future price increases in the context of increased market supply. The resumption of work platform has begun to be cautious.

Specific technical trend analysis,USD IndexThe daily structure has been retested as we analyzed to the middle track of the Bollinger Belt100.4Nearby, there are two possibilities for the subsequent trend: after the platform type consolidation is completed, another upward rebound test will begin103Resistance; Or fall below100.35With the support of the rebound, a dual headed structure has been established, and a downward trend has begun. From a morphological perspective, the first possibility is currently greater, but specific attention needs to be paid to Monday's trend.

The weekly structure of the euro against the US dollar has not closed well, and the short-term trend is still biased towards adjustment, with an upward position5Before the weekly moving average, it is not optimistic. And even if it breaks through5The weekly moving average, the middle track of the Bollinger Bands above it1.0780Strong resistance is also difficult to pass through. Focus on the situation of the US dollar, such asUSD IndexIt is ideal to continue shorting the euro if support is obtained and the trend starts to rise.

The daily structure of the GBP/USD ratio is relatively clear, and Friday's decline will disrupt the previously bullish pattern, mainly influenced by expectations for a Scottish referendum. At present, Monday morning trading has fallen below the support of the trend line below, and it is bearish in the short term. We can wait for a retest of resistance levels1.2440Short selling operations nearby,1.2480Stop loss1.2230。

The weekly structure of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is clear, and last week's closing saw a bearish pattern with rebound testing10After resistance from the weekly moving average, it fell and closed with a longer cross shaped star line. The market was bearish and began to see a large structure in the futureCThe probability of the wave accelerating downward phase is high, and the upper half percentile of the shadow line can be tested at the beginning of the week1.3140Short selling operations nearby,1.3200Stop loss. Beware of the risk of a strong rebound in the US dollar, positions can be laid out in light positions first.

The daily structure of the USD/JPY has shown a bearish trend with a bullish candlestick. Although it has been tested near the previous low, there is a high probability of inertial decline after closing at a low level. Therefore, it is possible to choose to test the short-term resistance level of the moving average for short selling operations and control the risk of the USD rebound with a good stop loss. Specifically112.5Short selling,113.4Stop loss.

The EUR/JPY can avoid the risk of a possible rebound in the US dollar. The current trend of the EUR is weak, while the trend of the JPY is strong, so short selling the EUR/JPY is relatively reasonable. The technical form has already begun to accelerate the decline stage. Previously, we repeatedly emphasized that we have provided a good short selling opportunity for this variety, which is currently in the stage of amplifying profits. We can continue to test the resistance level short selling operation, specifically:118.9Short selling,119.7Stop loss.

The daily structure of the euro against the Canadian dollar closed with a bearish candlestick after testing the effectiveness of resistance above, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend. Short selling operations can continue, and short-term moving averages can be chosen1.3870Short selling nearby,1.3920Stop loss.

The current situation of the euro against the pound is poor, and the pound is short in the short term. Therefore, it is not suitable to operate and can avoid the risks of this variety. It is advisable to wait and see.
         

EFS   Chen Yunbo