INFINOXInno: The US dollar index shows a fluctuating structure European pound lower neck line crude oil bullish breakthrough

On Thursday, the US dollar saw a slight decline, with new Treasury Secretary Stephen Nuchin on Thursday(2month23day)AcceptedCNBCInterviews with TV stations. In the interview, Nuqin pointed out that this year8We will launch a "very significant" tax reform in the month and hope to pass it before the congressional recess. We also believe that2018end of the yearGDPMaterial growth3%。

Nuqin hinted that the fiscal stimulus plan that the market is concerned about will not be given priority, and at the same time, the argument about the strength of the US dollar has weakened compared to before. However, market investors have doubts about the Federal Reserve's unemployment rate and the subconscious imbalance between fiscal and monetary policies.

At the market level, the news of the French election has changed, and Macron's strategy of aligning with the centrist has led to a decrease in Le Pen's chances of being elected, causing a rise in French bonds, stimulating a rebound in the euro, and weakening the US dollar index.

On the UK side, data released on Wednesday showed a decline in investment by British companies in the fourth quarter of last year. However, market concerns about US economic policies and European politics have intensified, leading to a decline in both the US dollar and the euro, bringing some respite to the pound. The pound rebounded on the momentum and traded on1.25---1.2520frontline.

In terms of commodities, US Treasury Secretary Nuchin has issued some "negative impacts" on the US dollar exchange rate and long-term debt, making it difficult to reconcile the contradiction between interest rates and finance; Earlier this month, Trump promised to provide a tax reform plan within a few weeks, so the market has been anticipating that he may2month28During his first State of the Union speech, he announced the details of his tax reform and infrastructure plans. However, Nuqin's speech cast a shadow over the upcoming tax reform plan, and he even stated that "the new policy..."2017The impact of the year will be limited.goldThanks to the time cycle of fiscal and interest rate contradictions, maintaining a bullish trend, yesterday's closing had a negative impact on1240Breakthrough horizontally.

Variety Analysis
USDUSD】

The short-term daily upward trend of the US dollar index is hindered by101.7Near the horizontal,kThe combination of lines displays the pressure in the area,M10Today has become a daily level support, and the short-term trading area of the US dollar index may revolve around103.8--101.64The trend line of the downward channel has been fluctuating, with a magnitude maintained at101.7----100.8。

Judging from the current structure of the daily chart,101.7--100.4ofNType start99.1The upward trend shows no signs of ending and is bullish in the future, with short-term fluctuations. The upward trend has come to an end, with100.3The level breakdown serves as a simple basis for measuring the US dollar index during this upward cycle.

Europe and AmericaEUR】

The daily downward trend of the euro is due to fluctuations1.0680ArisingNThe type structure has not yet ended. Although the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have triggered fluctuations in the US dollar, the level of volatility belongs to the sub regional level of event volatility. Technically speaking, it conforms to normal fluctuations and has not yet appeared1.0680A sign of the end or exhaustion of a falling wave.

This wave is from1.0680Despite the rebound in yields on French bonds and the intervention of the US Treasury Secretary, the downward trend that started yesterday still puts technical pressure1.06Below, and1h---4hTrading hindered by 1.0575---1.0590Region, no signs of daily depletion, band target1.0680The direction of the rise is still trending towards1.0450--1.0430Horizontal,1.08More inclined towards getting up1.0206Horizontal.

【WITbeautifulcrude oilfutures】

The daily structure of crude oil trend2The trend of annual cycle head and shoulder bottom is like a textbook, on the right side16The right shoulder of the year appears as a convergent triangle or wedge structure, ultimately breaking through the neck area50USD, currently located in54.9---51.05Consolidate the area.

I have gained a better understanding from the perspective of entanglement theory51.5--51.09The first and second buy signals indicate that the rise of crude oil has not yet broken through the center, but the technical side is gradually leaning towards bullish positions. It is necessary to be prepared to break through the center of volatility, and trading can be done through55The US dollar broke through and rose.

On Wednesday, although crude oil experienced a temporary dip in the US market, downward support revolved around53.5--53There is a support signal between the US dollars, pulling up and breaking again54The US dollar, understood through the central nervous system, is expected to rise in volatile regions. Strategically, breakthroughs require waiting for signals, while bulls can wait for signals55The signal above the US dollar confirms entry and goes long.

【EURGBPEuro Pound

The trend of the European pound remains technically stable at0.8846Since the downward trend line, the so-called inward cutting positive line can only consider support and cannot confirm whether a rebound can be launched.

From the perspective of cross market trends, the euro is still relatively weak compared to the pound in the near future. Therefore, the euro pound can be used as an excess return on the euro's decline, as well as a hedge against Europe and America, a hedge against the pound and the US, or to construct a higher-level disc strategy.

Euro Pound YesterdaykThe line appears to cover the negative line and is accompanied by a stronger trend in the pound than othersG7Non US currency, Euro pound lower trial daily neckline0.83Area.

【EURJPYEurope and Japan

The trend of Europe and Japan in this waveNFont trend123.30Starting from the downward direction,119.35--121.26The frequency band is123.3The initial decline rebounded, and yesterday's shadow line remained at121.26Starting from a downward trend, maintain a bearish position, and open the target for a downward trend118.1--116.88Horizontal.

The above analysis is based onINFINOXRen Zhenming, Chief Analyst of Inno Asia Pacific

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