Yituo Finance-The US dollar is subject to the Treasury Secretary's speech, and we will welcome the President's speech next week

The recent market fundamentals are consistent with what we have repeatedly emphasized. Despite the slight strengthening of the US dollar, US Treasury Secretary Nuchin delivered a speech to suppress it. Yesterday, he mentioned that US dollar interest rates would remain low for a long time, and the US dollar continued to adjust downwards after falling resistance to the previous day's impact. French centrist presidential candidate Macron proposed300The campaign chips for the billion euro infrastructure stimulus plan, coupled with Le Pen being caught up in an assistant salary scandal, have led to a decrease in market expectations for his eventual election, easing European risk sentiment and a rebound in the euro.
The general market concern is currently President Trump's tax bill. Yesterday, it was announced that he will hold a press conference next Tuesday to announce his tax reform policy. The focus is on two aspects: tax cuts for the middle class and border tax adjustments, which continue to create a positive trend for the US stock market and drive it out of a ten consecutive positive trend yesterday; However, the US dollar continues to be bearish, with market expectations for liquidity to remain high and trade protection leading to some overseas capital outflows.

In terms of data yesterday, the weekly unemployment benefits data released by the United States also showed a downward trend, which also suppressed the trend of the US dollar. Therefore, yesterdayUSD IndexThere has been a significant adjustment.

In terms of specific technical aspects,USD IndexAfter the deep adjustment of the daily structure yesterday, the short-term adjustment pattern is evident, which is consistent with the short-term dual headed structure trend we provided yesterday. Subsequently, we will continue to adjust and test the Bollinger Bands, and the probability of the mid track is high. Whether the market will start to decline after the dual headed structure or rise after the platform type consolidation structure in the future will be given direction before and after Trump's speech. Under the premise of Nuqin's suppression of the US dollar speech yesterday, we predict a high probability of a downward break.

The daily structure of the euro against the US dollar has rebounded under the adjustment of the US dollar, but the strength is limited, which is related to the suppression of unstable factors in the Eurozone. It is also difficult to emerge from a strong market in the future, and the probability of a weak rebound is relatively high. The biggest influencing factor currently is the expectation of the French presidential election, which will repeatedly affect the market, such as Le Pen's dominance suppressing the euro; On the contrary, if Fion or Macron have an advantage, it will boost the euro. Negotiations on Greek debt relief will resume next week,IMFWhether the EU and Greece can reach a consensus without affecting the upcoming debt aid will affect the further trend of the euro. If market sentiment in both areas begins to ease, the euro is also expected to experience a strong rebound.

The daily structure of GBP/USD has already broken through yesterday. Today, it is very comfortable to test the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and take a long position. We can fully grasp the specific position1.2510First line, optional1.2520Going long nearby,1.2480Stop loss.

As the pound broke through and strengthened, the euro rebounded weakly, and the bearish trend of the euro against the pound reappeared. Yesterday, a deep decline disrupted the previous day's bullish rebound pattern, and today's performance is being tested5Continuing to short the daily moving average is also very safe, specifically in the0.8440Short selling,0.8480Stop loss, radical can offer current price0.8426Short selling operations nearby.

The trend of EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP is consistent, and yesterday's decline will disrupt the downward shadow pattern of the previous day. The future market will continue to be bearish and can continue to be retested5Short selling on the daily moving average, but the chart of this variety is not as clear as the European pound, so cautious light positions can participate as the yen has not yet begun to perform strongly in the near future.

But looking at the USD/JPY ratio, the strengthening trend of the JPY relative to the USD is relatively clear, so the US and Japan can short sell, and the specific operation will be tested in the backtesting10Daily moving average resistance level113Short selling,113.5Stop loss.

The current dynamics of the weekly structure of the US dollar against the Canadian dollarkThe bearish trend of the line is very perfect. If the closing line can be at this position or lower today, there is a high probability of a downward break in the next week. We can wait for the closing line this week and pay close attention to it at the beginning of next week, still maintaining the previous low1.3The strategy of chasing short positions, once broken, will lead to an accelerated downward trend.

Yituo Finance Analyst: Chen Yunbo