Wang Shuqi: The US dollar index is falling and weakening goldT+DLatest quotation analysis at the beginning of afternoon trading

Wang Shuqi: The US dollar index is falling and weakening goldT+DLatest quotation analysis at the beginning of afternoon trading
　　
Friday(2month24day)The two biggest events currently affecting the market are the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the US tax reform plan. After the release of the minutes of this week's Federal Reserve meeting, the market's speculation on Federal Reserve policy has temporarily eased, with the focus entirely on the US tax reform plan.
　　
As early as two weeks ago, Trump vowed to launch a major tax reform plan in the coming weeks, but on Thursday, the new US Treasury Secretary, Nuchin, stated in an interview that,2017year8The monthly tax reform proposal may only be passed, which has disappointed the market very much. Under the pressure of disappointment, the US dollar index fell and weakened.
　　
At present, the focus is shifting to next week2month28The speech delivered by US President Trump in Congress today. The currency market, bond market, and gold price will all seek guidance from Trump's speech next Tuesday
　　
The US dollar index fell and touched101At the checkpoint, the market believes that there has been no progress in US tax reform. Investors are concerned about the lack of details in the Trump administration's policies and doubt whether the proposed reforms will have as much impact on the economy as expected.
　　
The market believes that the lack of progress in US tax reform is the main factor putting pressure on the US dollar. New US Treasury Secretary Nuchin is acceptingCNBCDuring the interview, it was stated that any policy measures taken by the Trump administration may have limited impact this year. Hope Congress8Before the monthly recess, the tax reform proposal can be passed.
　　                                         
At present, the market still holds a bullish attitude towards the future trend of gold. In the early stages of Trump's tax reform policy, although the US dollar index was supported by hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials, the US economic data continued to undermine the market. For example, the unexpected increase in US initial unemployment claims data released last night hindered the rebound of the US dollar index. From Trump's previous "deep hatred" towards the US dollar, it can be seen that the future rise of the US dollar will continue to be under pressure from Trump. This will be a major positive for gold.
　　
So where will gold break through the volatile pattern this time and rise to?According to analysis, currently gold is basically replicating2016The trend of the year, with the release of the minutes of this week's Federal Reserve meeting3Month and6The probability of monthly interest rate hikes has decreased, but Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Yellen, have a positive attitude towards future Fed rate hikes. Therefore, the trend of gold has to be vigilant. Therefore, it is expected that3Before the monthly interest rate hike, gold prices may maintain an upward trend. If3The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may continue to raise hawks, and the trend of gold prices may adjust. On the contrary, the price of gold may continue to rise to6Month.
　　
GoldTDTechnically speaking, goldTDLast trading day, the white market remained volatile between small areas. Prior to the US market, due to a speech by the US Treasury Secretary, who believed that the US would maintain long-term low interest rates in the coming period, gold took advantage of the trend to break through its previous high point278.6Frontline suppression, rapid upward movement. Under the influence of the upcoming initial unemployment benefits data, prices experienced a inertia increase, with a daily closing of a medium positive column and a short-term moving average with a gold cross supporting upward movementKLine, currently supported onMA5average277Nearby, attached imageMACDThe indicators continue to stick and flatten, whileSTOThe agile indicators are all forming a golden cross near the overbought area, and for the day, gold is still in a strong and volatile trend.
　　
　　4On an hourly cycle, a large bullish pillar establishes a short-term bullish dominance pattern, while withKThe downward trend of the gold price within the Bollinger Bands, but it did not fall too much and remained at a high level, indicates strong short-term bullish forces. Economic indicatorMACDJincha high-volume operation combined with agility indicatorsSTOThe golden cross runs upwards to the internal bonding of the overbought area, short-term4In terms of hours, gold is bullish. In terms of operation, it is recommended to fall back and take a long position.
　　
GoldTDOperational strategy recommendations:
　　
　　1GoldTDStep back277.5Multiple operations, stop loss277, look at the goal279-280
　　
　　2Gold breaking through levels280Falling back279Multiple operations, stop loss278, look at the goal282
　　
Author: Wang Shuqi