兴业投资：下周税改计划或难产 美元遭遇重创

兴业投资：下周税改计划或难产 美元遭遇重创
2017year2month24day
euro/dollar
欧元对美联储会议纪要后涨势小幅修正，在1.0540一线企稳后震荡走高，当天最高上探1.0594，尾盘削减涨幅但仍收于1.0570上方。美国财长努钦表示，特朗普政府致力于在8月份国会休会前通过“规模非常大”的税改计划，现在提税改的细节还为时尚早。同时，努钦认为，税改计划能将美国经济增速提高至3%，甚至更高，但影响可能要明年才能显现。努钦的讲话给下周特朗普在首次国情咨文时透露税改细节的市场泼了冷水，美元全线下挫。不过，欧元买兴并不强，周末前缺乏消息，可能促使短线多头回补平仓，入袋为安。
日图反弹测试下行的10日均线，可能受阻，4小时图震荡走高，但在1.0600下方受阻且缺乏跟进，且上方面临2month2日高点以来的下降趋势线，可能限制汇价涨幅，小时图短线反弹但缺乏力度。日内建议1.0600一线轻仓做空，下破1.0570follow-up.
Support position:1.0520 1.0470 1.0440
Resistance level:1.0590 1.0635 1.0660
pound/dollar
英镑在疲弱美元的推动下，终于上破近期整理区间1.2500But1.2550-1.2580阻力依旧重重。英镑昨日向上突破，更多是受到美国因素推动，并非英镑本身的主动行为。从近期英镑特立独行的走势来看，汇价能够进一步上行存在很大的不确定性。建议周末前对英镑多头仓位进行调整。
日图上破1.2370-1.2500区间，但依旧面临1.2550-1.2580区域重重阻力，进一步上行空间可能受限。4小时图强势拉升后维持在高位窄幅整理，随机指标倾向从超买区域修正。小时图飙涨，短线有修正需求，关注1.2530支持。日内建议轻仓逢高遇阻做空，下破1.2530follow-up.
Support position:1.2530 1.2500 1.2430
Resistance level:1.2560 1.2580 1.2600
dollar/Japanese yen
汇价亚欧盘反复在113上方整理，纽约早盘快速向下突破，最低下探112.54Last year10月上破100日均线以来首次跌破该线。当前汇价主要受到美国因素推动，而市场也在关注3monthG20财长会议上有关汇率问题的讨论。
Daily chart falls below mid-term support100日均线，技术上看空，短期阻力位于113-113.20。4小时图下行跌破113后小幅反弹，缺乏动能，可能提供逢高做空机会，小时图短线略有反弹但力度有限，走势偏空。日内建议113-113.20区域遇阻做空，关注112.50Frontline performance determines further direction.
Support position:112.50 112.10 111.60
Resistance level:113.00 113.20 113.50
AUD/dollar
澳元依旧剧烈震荡，自0.7710Stable after falling back due to obstruction above0.7660On the first line, it then fluctuated higher and surged in the New York market, breaking through0.7710Resistance, highest probing0.7740However, it was almost vomited back in the late trading session1/3Increase in price. Overall, the Australian dollar continues to maintain an upward trend, but the long short tug of war is more intense, and both long and short positions have profit opportunities. It is important to pay attention to controlling positions.
Daily chart on20The daily moving average support has been found to be higher, but the inclusion is longer. The upper shadow line shows greater resistance above, which may limit the increase.4The overall upward trend of the hourly chart remains intact, with a demand for a pullback in the short term. The hourly chart is fiercely contested for long and short positions, resulting in an overall oversupply. Suggestions for the day0.7680Going long on the front line, 0.7730Seeking backhand short selling opportunities on the front line.
Support position:0.7680 0.7660 0.7645
Resistance level:0.7735 0.7755 0.7775