Yituo Finance-Legal Election Risk Overrides Federal Reserve Minutes

From yesterday's market trend, it can be seen that the main factor affecting the market in the near future is the political risk in the Eurozone. The increase in support for French presidential candidate Le Pen has led to an increase in market expectations for the risk of France's Brexit in the future, and the euro has recently suffered consecutive defeats. The minutes of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, which market investors were concerned about, proposed that interest rate hikes would occur soon, but did not further strengthen the US dollar. Instead, it was the US dollar that was boosted by the euro's decline last night. The euro fell to a new low, while the US dollar has not yet broken through the high point ahead101.7Strong technical resistance level. Therefore, the dominant factors affecting the market in the near future are still the political stability of the eurozone and the weak US dollar policy supported by US President Trump.
Yesterday, major non US data showed no signs of further recovery, and the Eurozone'sCPIThe initial value did not continue to rise, the UKGDPThe decline in data and dismal retail data in Canada, along with expectations for the French presidential election in the Eurozone and Greece's debt audit issues, have suppressed the weakness of non US products in the early stages of yesterday's European and US markets. After sufficient adjustments, non American varieties subsequently began to counterattack,USD IndexAlso, it was not able to continue to strengthen under the stimulus of the Federal Reserve minutes. Therefore, after slightly digesting yesterday's Federal Reserve minutes, the Asian session is expected to return to the trend of non US strength.

In terms of specific technical aspects,USD IndexThe daily structure was consistent with our analysis yesterday, and we tested the front again101.7After experiencing resistance, it began to fall back, and the current form continues to test the previous low100.3There is a high probability of a rebound in the vicinity, followed by a double headed rebound before breaking through and falling, or a platform type consolidation followed by another rebound and strengthening. It is important to pay attention to whether100.3The test situation.

The daily structure of the euro against the US dollar has once again fallen to61.8%After gaining support near the support level, it began to rebound quickly and closed a small bullish line with a longer lower shadow. There is a demand for a rebound in the short term. Today, we will focus on testing the lower shadow half percentile1.0520In the case of buying intervention after the first line, it is appropriate to lay out multiple orders at this position and break through yesterday's low stop loss before leaving. Previously, it was suggested to leave the market for bearish euro varieties in the cross trading of the euro. In the short term, there is a possibility of a reversal in the short-term trend due to the impact of the euro's rebound.

　

The daily structure of GBP/USD yesterday1.2510Under the pressure of strong resistance, it was unable to further rise and effectively break through resistance, but instead began to decline, which is consistent with the fundamental aspects announced by the UK yesterdayGDPThe data is related to the decline, and in the future, we will continue to pay attention to the breakthrough of this resistance level, not breaking or chasing long, but it is also not recommended to short now.

Due to the strong rebound of the euro and the short-term weakness of the pound, the euro/pound quickly recovered after hitting bottom yesterday. There is a demand for a rebound in the short term, so early short positions can leave the market and wait for signs of an end to the rebound before rejoining.

The decline of the euro against the yen50%After the support level is quickly recovered, there is a possibility of a significant rebound in the short term due to the impact of the euro rebound. Therefore, all previous short positions have left the market and will wait for the rebound trend to end before re shorting.

The weekly structure of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is relatively clear, and the rebound test was conducted yesterday10After the weekly moving average, it began to fall. When we bearish on this variety in the large structure, we conducted rebound tests10The weekly moving average is an opportunity to enter the market, so it is possible to enter and short, break through the stop loss near the Bollinger Bands and exit, or fix the stop loss control risk. The specific short selling position today is1.3180frontline,1.3240Stop loss.

Yituo Finance Analyst: Chen Yunbo