Crossing the Sea 2016year10month25day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month25day

Focus this week:
10month25(Tuesday)
U.S.A8monthCaseShiller 20Monthly rate of seasonally adjusted housing price index in cities
U.S.A8monthCaseShillerMonthly rate of unadjusted housing price index without seasonal adjustment
U.S.A8monthCaseShillerAnnual rate of housing price index
U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A10Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

10month26day(Wednesday)
U.S.A9Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A9Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A10monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A9Monthly sales of new houses

10month27day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit Revision
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft
U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed



Important economic data released today:
16：00 Germany10monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧forecast109.5‧Previous value109.5
16：00 Germany10monthIfoCurrent situation index‧forecast114.9‧Previous value114.7
16：00 Germany10monthIfoExpected index‧forecast104.5‧Previous value104.5
16：00 Italy8月经季节调整工业订单月率‧Previous value-10.8%
16：00 Italy8月未经季节调整工业订单年率‧Previous value-11.8%
16：00 Italy8月经季节调整工业销售月率‧Previous value+2.1%
16：00 Italy8月未经季节调整工业销售年率‧Previous value-0.7%
21：00 U.S.A8Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Monthly rate of housing prices‧Previous value+0.5%
21：00 U.S.A8Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Annual rate of housing prices‧Previous value+5.8%
21：00 U.S.A8monthCaseShiller 20Monthly rate of seasonally adjusted housing price index in cities‧forecast+0.1%‧Front value remains unchanged
21：00 U.S.A8monthCaseShillerMonthly rate of unadjusted housing price index without seasonal adjustment‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.6%
21：00 U.S.A8monthCaseShillerAnnual rate of housing price index‧forecast+5.0%‧Previous value+5.0%
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧forecast1101.0‧Previous value104.1
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index‧Negative front value8
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧forecast101.0‧Previous value104.1



News of the Week

U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe initial value is53.2, for2015year10The highest since the beginning of the month.



10month24day
LondongoldMorning order price:1267.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1265.55



Today's Introduction

联储加息前景构成支撑美元

金融数据公司MarkitAnnounced on Monday, USA10Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)初值升至一年高点53.2。该数据提升了风险偏好。周一公布的一份行业报告显示，美国10Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)初值高于预估和上月终值，为2015year10月以来最高。受该好于预期的消息提振，投资者将美国联邦储备理事会(FED)12月升息概率小幅上调至74%左右。该消息也推动美元指数涨至九个月高位98.85。

芝加哥联储总裁埃文斯预期明年底前加息三次

芝加哥联储总裁埃文斯周一表示，只要通胀预期和就业市场继续改善，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)将在明年年底前升息三次。这种预期完全符合美联储17名决策者在上月会议上所做出的中值预测，即短期利率到明年底时将在1-1.25%。埃文斯表示，最重要的是，美联储应更加明确进一步升息的条件。埃文斯表示，他预计今年下半年经济增幅在2%-2.5%之间，称美国经济表现“相当不错”，劳动力市场也“很强劲”。



XAU London Gold - The strong US dollar restricts gains, while gold prices stabilize and consolidate

金价周二受稳健需求的支撑价格微涨，但美国升息可能性加大以及美元持坚，使金价在区间波动。芝加哥联储总裁埃文斯周一表示，只要通胀预期和就业市场继续改善，Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED) 将在明年年底前升息三次。美国10Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is53.2，高于预估和上月终值，为2015year10月以来最高。而10月欧元区企业活动扩张速度创今年最快。

技术图表所见，在1250Near the level, a good technical bottom has been temporarily established, and the short-term gold price is expected to develop steadily. Currently, it is relatively close to resistance reference1266and1277USD, next level material is1300The US dollar barrier. The following support can be found in1253and1241USD, further estimated as250Balance moving average1231USD.

London Gold10month25day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1253 – 1266
Resistance level:1277 – 1289
Support bit:1241 – 1220

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88, amplitude only60Remaining points. And below, there is a more obvious technical support200Balance moving average, currently located at17.34Horizontal. In the current situation of sideways trading, it is believed that once the level is broken, the silver trend will also usher in a unilateral trend. If it falls below the above technical support level, the extended lower trial level will be seen17.10and16.60Horizontal; On the contrary, if there is a definite breakthrough upwards17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.10To the extent that18.60The US dollar is facing significant resistance19.10Horizontal.

London Silver10month25day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.10 – 18.10
Resistance level:18.60 – 19.10
Support bit:16.60 – 16.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton



EUR euro - The central bank maintains a loose stance, while the euro continues its weakness

美元指数周二守在九个月高点附近，因稳健的美国制造业数据，以及美国联邦储备理事会(FED)官员的讲话强化了有关美国年底前升息的预期。美元指数周一曾触及98.85的高位，本月迄今累计上涨了3.6%。周一公布的一份行业报告显示，美国10Monthly manufacturing industryPurchasing Manager Index(PMI) 初值高于预估和上月终值，为2015year10月以来最高。此外，芝加哥联储总裁埃文斯周一的讲话进一步增添了美元的乐观氛围。他表示，只要通胀预期和就业市场继续改善，美联储将在明年年底前升息三次。埃文斯讲话之前，旧金山联邦储备银行总裁威廉姆斯上周五和纽约联邦储备银行总裁杜德利10month19日的讲话均暗示美联储即将升息。由于美元走强，欧元继续居于1.09水平下方。欧洲央行上周维持超宽松货币政策不变，但保留了12月祭出更多刺激举措的可能性，之后欧元一直承压。

In September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range, it has already fallen below the bottom at the beginning of the month, and it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market trends will be launched in the short term. In addition,1.11Also250The position of the balance moving average will be considered as short-term resistance, and larger resistance will be estimated at50Balance moving average1.1180Horizontal. Down to1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the euro has initially fallen below this support on Friday. If the exchange rate continues to remain below this level next week, the weakness of the euro is expected to continue, and a significant decline is expected to be extended1.07To the extent that1.05Horizontal.

Focus:
10month25(two): France10Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Germany10monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧Italy8Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales
10month26day(three): Germany11monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧France10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy8Monthly retail sales
10month27day(four): Eurozone9monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧For household loans‧Italy10Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly salary index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1100 – 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.0900* – 1.0700



JPY yen - Policy Differences between the United States and Japan, Weak Development of the Japanese yen  

As seen in the technical chart5月底起始之下降趋向线，至今形成阻力于104.30，美元兑日圆经过近期的一段整固行情后，若突破此趋向线阻力，则可望开展新一轮上升。由于相对强弱指标及随机指数维持着向上，似乎汇价继续走高之机会较大。较近阻力先看105关口，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.50，留意美元兑日圆7month21日触及的高位在107.47，这更显得此区的重要性。支持位方面，则会以100Balance moving average103水平为较近参考，较大支撑预估在102.20and101.50Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
Friday: Japan9All monthly household expenses‧National CoreCPI‧Nationwide as a wholeCPI‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 104.30 – 105.00 – 107.50
support 103.00 – 102.20 – 101.50



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

英镑兑美元周一守在1.22美元上方，受到全球各地市场的冒险意愿改善支撑，不过对于英国经济将会受到退欧决定打击的预期，使英镑涨势受限。过去数周，英国硬退欧的立场以及欧盟在可能于明年展开的协商中的强硬态度，导致英镑贸易加权指数跌至历史新低。本周焦点将会放在英国经济第三季成长数据上，该数据将于周四出炉。经历第二季强劲表现后，英国经济料将在第三季放缓，或增长0.3%。

图表走势所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，同时，5Tianhe10天平均线正呈黄金交叉，估计若汇价仍然未有进一步破底的情况下，将面临大举反扑的风险。阻力先探上周高位1.2329，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.25and1.2630水平。支持位预估在1.2180and1.20Gateway.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK9monthBBANumber of approved mortgage loans
Thursday: UK Season 3GDPinitial value‧britain10monthCBIRetail sales difference
Friday: UK10monthGfKConsumer confidence index

Related news
britain10月工业订单差值从9The negative of the month5Reduce to negative17, creating2New low since September

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2180 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
瑞士央行总裁乔丹称必要时可能进一步下调负利率，直升机撒钱非瑞士央行的政策工具

Focus:
Thursday: Switzerland9UBS Group(UBS)Consumer index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The strong US dollar continues, putting pressure on the trend of the Australian dollar

铁矿石价格上涨，中国铁矿石期货价格触及2014year8月以来最高。煤炭价格经过几周上涨也来到新的高峰，这给澳元提供支撑，因这两种大宗商品对澳洲出口收入贡献最大。如果周三的数据显示澳洲第三季基础通胀率持稳在1.5%左右，市场会认为澳洲央行的宽松周期或将结束。这种观点也对澳元构成扶助。

As shown in the technical chart, AUD/USD8month11Daily high0.7760，9month8Daily high0.7732，9month29Daily high0.7711Despite the gradual decline in high levels, it is expected that the Australian dollar will still see room for adjustment in the short term. Calculated from the cumulative increase from the low point in May to the high point in August,50%The callback amplitude is0.7450The low point reached in September also happened to stop in this area. If it expands to61.8%Will reach0.7380Horizontal, this position is also250The location of the balance moving average; If it breaks further, there is a chance to try again5month24Daily low0.7145. The upper resistance is seen in0.77The downward trend line of is estimated to have significant resistance as0.78Horizontal.

Focus:
10month26day(three): Australia Season 3CPI‧Central BankCPIweighted median ‧CPItrimmed mean
10month27day(four)Q3 export price quarterly rate in Australia‧Seasonal import price rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7700 – 0.7800
support 0.7450 – 0.7380* – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - 维持弱势下行

纽西兰央行周二表示，现在货币政策声明将要包括对官方隔夜拆款利率的预期，而不是90天期银行票据利率。分析师称这种政策指引将有助于使政策前景更加明朗化。纽西兰央行在声明中称，该行目前认为，提供对官方隔夜拆款利率的预期，是“用更为透明的方式，表述预期中为实现通胀目标而有必要采取的政策行动”。直到现在，90天期银行票据利率一直被认为是官方隔夜拆款利率的代表，因其“一般而言与官方隔夜拆款利率的动向一致，”该行表示。货币政策声明包含对90天期银行票据利率的季度预估，预估期为四年。但90天期银行票据不仅包括银行融资成本，而且包括部位，另外该利率也会受到信贷和流动性问题的干扰。

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7190and50Balance moving average0.7250Horizontal.

Focus:
10month27day(four): New Zealand9Monthly trade balance‧by9Annual trade balance of the month‧New Zealand8Monthly imports‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

加拿大央行总裁波洛兹表示，央行若进一步放宽政策，将离采取非常规货币政策更近一步，而且是否降息不是一个能轻易做出的决定。

加拿大央行周一决议将下个五年通胀目标持续订为2%，并称为了能更好地评估长期趋势，央行将改变衡量通胀的方式。央行决定把上述目标定在1-3%区间的中点，多符合市场预期，因央行之前已一再重申要改变通胀目标的门坎很高。央行在宣布通胀衡量方法将如何调整时说，央行将舍弃以往只用一个“核心”通胀指标的方法，改为以三个指标来衡量消费者物价的变化。核心通胀指标系扣除掉一些波动性较大的项目，可为物价变化提供较清晰的全貌。加拿大统计局12月发布11月通胀报告时，将开始公布这三个新CPI衡量指标。加拿大央行称，三个用来衡量通胀的新指标包括：CPI一般值(CPI-common)、CPI截尾值(CPI-trim)、CPImedian(CPI-median) 。CPI一般值衡量CPI篮子中所有项目的一般价格变化；CPI截尾值为扣除上下波动最大的离群值；CPI中值为CPI所有组成的通胀率中值。

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Related news
央行总裁称，降息将使央行更接近使用非常规工具

Canada8Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)