Crossing the Sea 2016year10month24day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month24day

Focus this week:
10month24day(Monday)
U.S.A9Monthly National Activity Index
U.S.A10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value

10month25(Tuesday)
U.S.A8monthCaseShiller 20Monthly rate of seasonally adjusted housing price index in cities
U.S.A8monthCaseShillerMonthly rate of unadjusted housing price index without seasonal adjustment
U.S.A8monthCaseShillerAnnual rate of housing price index
U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A10Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

10month26day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index
Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate
U.S.A9Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
country9Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A10monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A9Monthly sales of new houses

10month27day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit Revision
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A9Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft
U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed



Important economic data released today:
07：50 Japan9Monthly trade balance(yen)‧Previous value187A deficit of one billion yuan
07：50 Japan9Monthly export annual rate‧Previous value-9.6%
07：50 Japan9Monthly import annual rate‧Previous value-17.3%
08：30 Japan10Monthly Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value50.4
15：00 France10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value49.7
15：00 France10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧Previous value53.3
15：00 France10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value52.7
15：30 Germany10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value54.3
15：30 Germany10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧Previous value50.9
15：30 Germany10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value52.8
16：00 eurozone10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value52.6
16：00 eurozone10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧Previous value52.2
16：00 eurozone10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value52.6
16：00 Italy9Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance(euro)‧Previous value21.3Yiyi surplus
20：30 Canada8Monthly wholesale trade rate‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly National Activity Index‧Negative front value0.55
21：45 U.S.A10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value51.5



10month21day
LondongoldMorning order price:1263.95
London gold afternoon fixing price:1266.05



XAU London Gold - The strong US dollar restricts gains, while gold prices stabilize and consolidate

The trend of the US dollar showed consolidation at the beginning of last week and then resumed its upward trajectory on Thursday. A survey after the third debate of the US presidential election showed that Hillary Clinton had the upper hand, and two Federal Reserve officials expressed support for interest rate hikes, which supported the US dollar. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fisher has warned that if interest rates continue to remain at their current low levels, the US economy may face a longer-term and more severe recession in the future. New York Fed President Dudley said that if the economy maintains its current trajectory, the Fed may raise interest rates later this year. Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank reserved12The possibility of expanding stimulus policies on a monthly basis will further boost the US dollar to a seven month high. Faced with the strong US dollar, the Chinese yuan also hit a new low in over six years against the US dollar on Friday. The US dollar index rose to its highest point on Friday, reaching98.81, for2The highest level since the beginning of the month. according toCME GroupofFedWatchTools, traders have now digested the Federal Reserve's12The probability of a monthly meeting raising interest rates is70%, higher than two weeks ago64%. This week will bring some important data, including those from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Francegross domestic product(GDP), as well as multiple countriesPMIdata In addition, three Federal Reserve officials delivered speeches on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and after that, Federal Reserve officials will remain silent until11month1-2The interest rate meeting on the day.

London gold showed a stable rebound last week, with1250There is good support near the level, which is influenced by China andExchange listed funds(ETF) Stable physical buying boosted the market. However, in the context of the weakening of the euro and pound, the strength of the US dollar may limit the rebound in gold prices. As seen in the technical chart1250Near the level, a good technical bottom has been temporarily established, and the short-term gold price is expected to develop steadily. Currently, it is relatively close to resistance reference1276and1285USD, next level material is1300The US dollar barrier. The following support can be found in1256and1246USD, further estimated as250Balance moving average1230USD.

London Gold10month24 – 28Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1279 – 1289 – 1313 – 1323
Support bit:1263 – 1253 – 1239 – 1215

London Gold10month24day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1256 – 1276
Resistance level:1285 – 1300 – 1313
Support bit:1246 – 1232 – 1219

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Breaking the Triangle and Extending Weakness under Silver Prices

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.82, amplitude only50Remaining points. And below, there is a more obvious technical support200Balance moving average, currently located at17.30Horizontal. In the current situation of sideways trading, it is believed that once the level is broken, the silver trend will also usher in a unilateral trend. If it falls below the above technical support level, the extended lower trial level will be seen17.00and16.50Horizontal; On the contrary, if there is a definite breakthrough upwards17.80US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.10To the extent that25Balance moving average18.50The US dollar is facing significant resistance18.80Horizontal.

London Silver10month24 – 28Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.80 – 18.10 – 18.50 – 19.10
Support bit:17.20 – 17.00 – 16.50 – 16.00

London Silver10month24day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.20 – 17.70
Resistance level:18.00 – 18.40 – 18.80
Support bit:17.00 – 16.80 – 16.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton



EUR euro - The central bank maintains a loose stance, while the euro continues its weakness

The euro fell to the US dollar on Friday1.09The seven month low below has dashed expectations from various sectors that the European Central Bank will reduce its stimulus measures in the short term. The European Central Bank maintained its ultra loose monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, but retained it12The possibility of more stimulating measures during the lunar festival. Central Bank President Draghi reserves the possibility of considering multiple policy options, while emphasizing that monetary easing is "very large" ”In this case, it is expected that there will be a long-awaited rebound in inflation. This makes the market have no reason to believe that the central bank is preparing to discuss a reduction1.7The statement about the trillion euro asset purchase plan.

In September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range, it has already fallen below the bottom at the beginning of the month, and it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market trends will be launched in the short term. In addition,1.11Also250The position of the balance moving average will be considered as short-term resistance, and larger resistance will be estimated at50Balance moving average1.1180Horizontal. Down to1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the euro has initially fallen below this support on Friday. If the exchange rate continues to remain below this level next week, the weakness of the euro is expected to continue, and a significant decline is expected to be extended1.07To the extent that1.05Horizontal.

Focus:
10month24day(one): France10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Germany10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
eurozone10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Italy9Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance
10month25(two): France10Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Germany10monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧Italy8Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales
10month26day(three): Germany11monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧France10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy8Monthly retail sales
10month27day(four): Eurozone9monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧For household loans‧Italy10Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly salary index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1100 – 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.0900* – 1.0700



JPY yen - Policy Differences between the United States and Japan, Weak Development of the Japanese yen

In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen for several days, and the significant increase last Tuesday has even broken through the top of the triangular pattern formed in the past three months. After the pattern breaks through, it indicates that the exchange rate still has a tendency to further rise, and the target can be seen first105Gateway. In addition, at the beginning of this year, the high point reached6month24Daily low99.08Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%Rebound level107.70Expand to50%Then it is110.40. as for200Balance moving average108.10It can also serve as another basis for resistance. The closest supporting material is102.30, with significant support estimated at50Balance moving average101.80and100Pass, please pay attention9In the second half of the month, the exchange rate made repeated attempts, but remained stable100Therefore, it will be regarded as a key support level for the mid-term trend.

Focus:
10month24day(one): Japan9Monthly trade balance‧Annual export rate‧Annual import rate‧Japan10Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
10month27day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
10month28day(five): Japan9All monthly household expenses‧National CoreCPI‧Nationwide as a wholeCPI‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.70 – 108.40 – 110.40
support 102.30 – 101.60 – 100.00



GBP pound - Domestic and foreign troubles suppress the trend of the pound

As can be seen from the chart, the GBP/USD has fallen below the starting point of this month1.30After the checkpoint, it continues to be in a downward trend, and it is expected to extend the downward target to1.22To the extent that1.20At the entrance, the larger supporting material is1.18Horizontal. The estimated upper resistance is1.2500and1.2620The next level material is1.2830Horizontal.

Focus:
10month26day(three): UK9monthBBANumber of approved mortgage loans
10month27day(four): UK Season 3GDPinitial value‧britain10monthCBIRetail sales difference
10month28day(five): UK10monthGfKConsumer confidence index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2620 – 1.2800
support 1.2200 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
Switzerland9The monthly trade surplus has expanded to43.74Billion Swiss francs

Focus:
10month27day(four)Switzerland9UBS Group(UBS)Consumer index        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The strong US dollar continues, putting pressure on the trend of the Australian dollar

The US dollar index climbed to2The highest since the beginning of the month, benefiting from the Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)The expectation of interest rate hikes within the year has increased, and the euro has fallen to a seven month low. The hawkish speeches of Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President Dudley, and the rising expectations of Hillary's election as President of the United States have led to increased bets on the Fed's interest rate hike this year. Dudley said on Wednesday that if the US economy continues to develop on its established trajectory, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year. The US dollar index touched2month3The highest in recent days98.81。

The Australian dollar rose significantly against the US dollar in the early part of last week, mainly driven by investor demand for high-yield currencies; However, employment data released by Australia as of Thursday showed a significant decrease in full-time employment, dragging the Australian dollar out of its six week high0.7735, falling back to0.76Interval. According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics,9Monthly full-time employment positions decreased by53,000Number. However, the unemployment rate remains stable at a three-year low5.6%. Market participants have previously postponed the expected time for the central bank's interest rate cut to2017In the middle of the year, however, the Bank of Australia10After emphasizing the importance of the inflation data released next week in the monthly meeting minutes, the performance of the data will be noticed by the market. According to data forecasts, the quarterly rate of basic inflation in the third quarter is approximately0.4%The annual rate is expected to remain stable at1.5%. Current market expectations, Bank of Australia11The only possibility of another monthly interest rate cut is18%。

As shown in the technical chart, AUD/USD8month11Daily high0.7760，9month8Daily high0.7732，9month29Daily high0.7711Despite the gradual decline in high levels, it is expected that the Australian dollar will still see room for adjustment in the short term. Calculated from the cumulative increase from the low point in May to the high point in August,50%The callback amplitude is0.7450The low point reached in September also happened to stop in this area. If it expands to61.8%Will reach0.7380Horizontal, this position is also250The location of the balance moving average; If it breaks further, there is a chance to try again5month24Daily low0.7145. The upper resistance is seen in0.77The downward trend line of is estimated to have significant resistance as0.78Horizontal.

Related news
Meeting minutes: The central bank emphasized the impact of the third quarter inflation data on11The importance of determining monthly interest rates
Australia9Monthly employment decrease0.9810000 people, reduced full-time employment5.3Ten thousand, the decrease is exceptionally significant
Australia9The monthly unemployment rate remains at a three-year low5.6%

Focus:
10month26day(three): Australia Season 3CPI‧Central BankCPIweighted median ‧CPItrimmed mean
10month27day(four)Q3 export price quarterly rate in Australia‧Seasonal import price rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7700 – 0.7800
support 0.7450 – 0.7380* – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - Inflation data triggers a jump in the New Zealand dollar

In terms of technical trends, the New Zealand dollar struggled to hold onto against the US dollar last week0.70At the checkpoint, there was a technical rebound afterwards and remained stable on Monday0.71Horizontally above. As shown in the technical chart, the New Zealand dollar has fallen below the upward trend line formed in the past five months, showing a downward trend; along with10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7150and50Balance moving average0.7260Horizontal.

Focus:
10month27day(four): New Zealand9Monthly trade balance‧by9Annual trade balance of the month‧New Zealand8Monthly imports‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7170 – 0.7260 – 0.7320
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged, and the policy stance unexpectedly shifts towards a dovish tone

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month24day(one): Canada8Monthly wholesale trade rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)