Crossing the Sea 2016year10month18day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month18day

Focus this week:
10month18day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A9Monthly average real income monthly rate
United States10monthNAHBHousing market index
U.S.A9Cleveland Federal ReserveCPI

10month19day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly overall capital flow
U.S.A8Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index
Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A9Monthly housing construction starts

10month20day(Thursday)
U.S.A10Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A9Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A9Monthly leading indicator monthly rate



Important economic data released today:
20：30 Canada8Monthly manufacturing sales rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A9Seasonally adjusted consumer price index for menstruation(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly unadjusted consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+1.1%
20：30 U.S.A9Core Consumer Price Index for Menstrual Seasonal Adjustment(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30 U.S.A9Core Consumer Price Index without Seasonal Adjustment per Month(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+2.3%‧Previous value+2.3%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week‧Previous value-0.4%
22：00 United States10Monthly Residential Builders Association(NAHB)Housing market index‧forecast63‧Previous value65
23：30 U.S.A9Monthly Cleveland Fed Consumer Price Index(CPI)‧Previous value+0.2%

10month19day (Wednesday)
04：00 U.S.A8Monthly overall capital flow‧Net inflow of previous value1,406Billion
04：00 U.S.A8Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds‧Net sales of previous value131Billion



News of the Week

U.S.A9Monthly industrial production increased compared to the previous month0.1%
New York Fed10The monthly manufacturing index is negative6.80Touching5Lowest since month
China9Monthly broad money supply(M2)Year-on-year growth11.5%
China9Monthly new RMB loans1.22Trillion yuan



10month17day
LondongoldMorning order price:1252.70
London gold afternoon fixing price:1254.80



Today's Introduction

Vice Chairman Fisher: The Federal Reserve is "very close" to its employment and inflation targets

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)Vice Chairman Fisher stated on Monday that the Federal Reserve is "very close" to its employment and inflation targets, and warned against hastily changing the policy framework in efforts to boost economic growth. Fisher pointed out that low global economic growth makes it difficult for central banks to effectively combat recession. He also said that if interest rates continue to remain at their current low levels, the US economy may face a longer and more severe recession in the future. When asked about shifting the Federal Reserve's inflation target from the current2%Up to3%When it comes to the idea, Fisher said he is not enthusiastic about such ideas. He also mentioned in his speech that the Federal Reserve should not impose too much stimulus policies to lower the unemployment rate below the target level.

According to data released by the People's Bank of China on Tuesday,9Monthly new RMB loans1.22Trillion yuan, higher than before1A median of trillions of yuan in the survey; Broad money supply at the end of the month(M2)Year-on-year growth11.5%Slightly lower than the median in a Reuters survey11.6%. Central bank data and display, China9Month end RMB loan balance104.11Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth13%The median in a Reuters survey is12.9%. Central bank data also shows an increase in RMB loans in the first three quarters10.16Trillion yuan, an increase year-on-year2,558RMB100mn



XAU London Gold - Low level consolidation of gold prices

Gold prices rose on Tuesday due toFederal Reserve Board of the United States(FED) The uncertainty of when to raise interest rates has dragged down the weakness of the US dollar, providing support for gold prices. Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)Vice Chairman Fisher stated on Monday that low interest rates may pose a threat to economic stability, but the Fed's rate hike is "not that simple".The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust Gold holdings increased on Monday0.18%to967.21Tons, increasing for the third consecutive trading day.

As shown in the technical chart, the gold price is currently relatively close to the resistance reference1263and1270USD, next level material is1288. However, as the bottom of the triangle has fallen, there is still a risk of a decline in gold prices. The following support can be found in1254and1246USD, with significant support1238, further estimated as250Balance moving average1226USD, gold price from2Monthly rise and fall250The antenna continues to rise, so if the future falls short of this area, or there is a signal that gold prices will usher in another round of decline, the key will be to1200The US dollar barrier.

London Gold10month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1254 – 1263
Resistance level:1270 – 1288
Support bit:1246 – 1238

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Breaking the Triangle and Extending Weakness under Silver Prices

In terms of London silver, in the past two months, the overall fluctuation of silver prices has gradually narrowed and formed a triangular pattern. As the silver price falls below at the beginning of the month, it is expected to maintain a weak development. The estimated lower extension support is200Balance moving average17.20as well as16.60USD, next level material is16The US dollar barrier. Upward resistance can be referenced17.80and18.10USD, reference for significant resistance18.50USD.

London Silver10month18day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.30 – 17.80
Resistance level:18.10 – 18.50
Support bit:17.00 – 16.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton



EUR euro - Exploring the Beauty Finger98Pass, non US maintains pressure

USD from9Accumulated increase since the end of the month3%Left and right, due toFederal Reserve Board of the United States(FED) Expectations for interest rate hikes to rise before the end of the year. But when it comes to touching3month10After reaching its highest level in recent days, the US dollar index has fallen back to97.60Horizontal, off the seven month high set on Monday98.17。12Monthly interest rate hikes are still a consensus in the market, according toCME FedWatchThe investigation shows that the probability of interest rate hikes is70%Left and right. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fisher stated on Monday that low interest rates pose a threat to economic stability, but the Fed's push to raise interest rates is "not that simple". Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen hinted last Friday that inflation may be allowed to exceed2%The target level.

The euro rose against the US dollar to1.1020Horizontal, breaking away from the nearly three-month low hit on Monday1.0962Investors are paying attention to the European Central Bank's policy meeting later this week. Insiders have revealed that the European Central Bank may discuss technical adjustments to its asset purchase plan, but it may be postponed until12We will make a decision again this month, and we will also decide on this plan at that time3Will it continue to be implemented after the expiration of the month.

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range and entering the end region of the triangular pattern, it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market will be launched in the short term. The top of the triangle is located at1.1260At the bottom, see1.1140The euro fell against the US dollar last Friday1.10Below the horizontal level, it has initially broken through the triangular pattern; In addition,1.11Also250The balance moving average position is expected to see a wave of decline in the euro, which will further lead to1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal. The upper resistance is estimated to be50Balance moving average1.12Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: Germany9monthPPI‧eurozone8Monthly current account‧direct investment/Net liquidity of securities investment‧Europe10Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate
Friday: Eurozone10Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.1000 – 1.0900 – 1.0700



JPY yen - Policy Differences between the United States and Japan, Weak Development of the Japanese yen

The Bank of Japan, in its quarterly report on Monday, maintained the economic assessments of six out of nine regions unchanged and raised the economic assessments of two regions. But the central bank2013year1The assessment for the East China Sea region has been lowered for the first time since the beginning of this month, stating that the region's economic expansion is weakening. In its7In the monthly report, the central bank stated that the region's economy is showing a moderate expansion trend.

The US dollar index suspended its recent gains and fell on Tuesday, breaking away from a seven month high as investors evaluated their expectations for US monetary policy in the near future. The US dollar fell slightly against the Japanese yen to104Below. Bank of Japan10month31day-11month1A policy meeting will be held on the day and new quarterly growth and inflation estimates will be released. However, as the central bank just readjusted its policy framework last month, it is expected that policies will not be relaxed in the near future. According to a Reuters corporate survey released on Tuesday, Japanese companies have little confidence in the recent policy shift by the Bank of Japan. Many companies believe that this move will not generate the long-awaited inflation, nor will it stimulate companies to increase investment or affect the economy.

In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen for several days, and the significant increase last Tuesday has even broken through the top of the triangular pattern formed in the past three months. After the pattern breaks through, it indicates that the exchange rate still has a tendency to further rise, and the target can be seen first105Gateway. In addition, at the beginning of this year, the high point reached6month24Daily low99.08Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%Rebound level107.70Expand to50%Then it is110.40. as for200Balance moving average108.10It can also serve as another basis for resistance. The closest supporting material is102.30, with significant support estimated at50Balance moving average101.80and100Pass, please pay attention9In the second half of the month, the exchange rate made repeated attempts, but remained stable100Therefore, it will be regarded as a key support level for the mid-term trend.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.70 – 108.40 – 110.40
support 102.30 – 101.60 – 100.00



GBP pound - Domestic and foreign troubles suppress the trend of the pound

Bank of England Governor Carney Last Friday's speech stated that in order to achieve economic strength, the Bank of England is willing to tolerate inflation slightly above the target level, but hopes to eliminate uncertainty about inflation and interest rates. Carney also stated that the Bank of England cannot guarantee long-term economic prosperity and can only assist in adjustments, and the UK is facing issues with wealth distribution. Carney also believes that if the Bank of England8If there are no stimulus measures introduced in the month, there may be more job declines; At the same time, it also pointed out that regardless of what happens in Europe, China, or the UK, the UK banking system will continue to operate.

The pound has depreciated over the past two weeks against the US dollar6%Last week, it was stuck in a low range and wandered, but as of this Monday, it remained at1.22Trading below the US dollar, rising UK government bond yields, and media reports of conflicting positions between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and other cabinet members regarding the UK's exit conditions have dragged down the trend of the pound. The Daily Telegraph of the UK pointed out that Chancellor of the Exchequer Shawnda may resign after being excluded from government meetings due to criticism of Prime Minister Wen Cuishan's hard Brexit stance. As shown in the chart, the pound has fallen below the US dollar since the beginning of this month1.30After the checkpoint, it continues to be in a downward trend, and it is expected to extend the downward target to1.22To the extent that1.20At the entrance, the larger supporting material is1.18Horizontal. The estimated upper resistance is1.2500and1.2620The next level material is1.2830Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: UK9Annual rate of monthly average weekly salary income‧Monthly rate of people claiming unemployment benefits‧UK as of8According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
Thursday: UK9Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy%
Friday: UK9Monthly deduction of net public sector loans from state-owned banks‧Public sector net borrowing(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2620 – 1.2800
support 1.2200 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
10month20day(four)Switzerland9Monthly trade balance(Swiss franc)‧Previous value30.25Yiyi surplus

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The President of the Central Bank expressed satisfaction with the exchange rate level

The Bank of Australia will11At the monthly interest rate meeting, the latest consumer price and employment data were reviewed, opening the door for possible easing of policies. The Bank of Australia earlier this month maintained interest rates at1.5%Unchanged. The central bank emphasized the importance of the third quarter inflation data to be released next week, which is expected to show that inflation remains sluggish. The committee members pointed out that the next meeting will be held in the third quarterCPIBoth the data and the latest central bank economic forecasts are available. This will give the central bank the opportunity to consider the economic outlook, evaluate the effectiveness of past interest rate cuts, and examine the employment and housing market conditions The next meeting of the Bank of Australia will be held at11month1Day. Financial markets believe that following5Month and8After relaxing policies twice a month, the central bank11The possibility of reducing interest rates at the monthly meeting is very low.

The Australian dollar and the US dollar jumped on Tuesday as investors' demand for high-yield currencies increased and the US dollar also rose from a seven month high. The Australian dollar rose to0.7690The level was boosted by comments from Bank of Australia President Lowe. Lowe stated that he is satisfied with the current exchange rate. In addition, recent increases in iron ore and coal prices have also boosted the Australian dollar. The Bank of Australia will11At the monthly interest rate meeting, the latest consumer price and employment data were reviewed, opening the door for possible easing of policies. However, interbank interest rate futures show that the probability of interest rate cuts next month is only16%。

As shown in the technical chart, AUD/USD8month11Daily high0.7760，9month8Daily high0.7732，9month29Daily high0.7711Despite the gradual decline in high levels, it is expected that the Australian dollar will still see room for adjustment in the short term. Calculated from the cumulative increase from the low point in May to the high point in August,50%The callback amplitude is0.7450The low point reached in September also happened to stop in this area. If it expands to61.8%Will reach0.7380Horizontal, this position is also250The location of the balance moving average; If it breaks further, there is a chance to try again5month24Daily low0.7145. The upper resistance is seen in0.77The downward trend line of is estimated to have significant resistance as0.78Horizontal.

Related news
Meeting minutes: The central bank emphasized the impact of the third quarter inflation data on11The importance of determining monthly interest rates

Focus:
Thursday: Australia9Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7700 – 0.7800
support 0.7450 – 0.7380* – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - Inflation data triggers a jump in the New Zealand dollar

The New Zealand dollar rose to a two-week high against the US dollar0.7199The US dollar, previously released by New Zealand, had better than expected inflation data, but0.2%The annual inflation rate is still much lower than the set by the Bank of New Zealand1-3%The goal of.

The New Zealand dollar struggled to hold onto against the US dollar last week0.70At the checkpoint, there was a technical rebound afterwards and remained stable on Monday0.71Horizontally above. As shown in the technical chart, the New Zealand dollar has fallen below the upward trend line formed in the past five months, showing a downward trend; along with10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7150and50Balance moving average0.7260Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7170 – 0.7260 – 0.7320
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month18day(two): Canada8Monthly manufacturing sales rate
10month19day(three)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Resolution
10month21day(five): Canada9monthCPIMonthly rate‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada8Monthly retail sales‧Deduction of retail sales of automobiles

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)