Eurobank10The monthly forecast is extremely stable, and it is advisable to lower the EUR/JPY ratio

Huitong Network10month18Daily News - Thursday Beijing Time(10month20day)19:45The European Central Bank will announce10Monthly benchmark interest rate, Tuesday(10month18day)Bank of America Merrill Lynch(BofA Merrill)I have expressed my perspective on this, and the specific views are as follows.

Bank of America: Eurobank10The monthly forecast is extremely stable, and it is advisable to lower the EUR/JPY ratio

The basic expectation is that the European Central Bank will confirm that there is no discussion of reducing bond purchases. President Draghi emphasized that the European Central Bank intends to retain "necessary" and "substantial" monetary policy support. In addition, he is expected to emphasize that inflation will return to the target level without delay.

Since the market began to rumor that the European Central Bank would cut its bond purchases, the tightening of monetary conditions will deepen the market's understanding. If the European Central Bank decides to2017year3Where will the market go after reducing bond purchases on a monthly basis. This is also the reason why Della's basic weekly stance is expected to be extremely dovish, although any easing measures are expected to have to wait until12month8It will only be announced today.

Draghi will not elaborate on monetary policy tools as the European Central Bank's regulatory committee has not yet reviewed multiple policy options. It is still expected that the European Central Bank will12Announcement of extending quantitative easing in June(QE)to2017year9Maintain the pace of bond purchases on the current monthly basis800Billion euros, this move is expected to require capital adjustments.

Looking ahead, the European Central Bank is clearly facing the dilemma of "stimulus fatigue". The lack of financial and regulatory support in the UK has greatly disappointed the market, and what is even more worrying is that ultra-low interest rates have been a long-term drag on financial stability. It is highly likely that if the UK economic data allows, the Bank of England will begin to remove its stimulus measures with full firepower. Therefore, the main concern of Bank of America is that the European Central Bank is starting to2017Discuss measures to reduce bond purchases in the summer of this year.

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