Crossing the Sea 2016year10month3day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month3day

Focus this week:
10month3day(Monday)
U.S.A9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A8Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A9monthISMManufacturing Index

10month4day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9monthISM-纽约商业活动指数

10month5day(Wednesday)
U.S.A9monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A9monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A8Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A8Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A9monthISMNon manufacturingPMI

10month6day(Thursday)
U.S.A9monthChallenger企业计划裁员岗位
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

10month7day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A9Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A9Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A8Monthly wholesale inventory‧销售月率修订

10month8day(Saturday)
U.S.A8Monthly Consumer Credit



Important economic data released today:        
06：30 Australia9monthAIGManufacturing Index‧Previous value46.9
07：50 日本第三季央行短观大型制造业景气判断指数‧Predict positive7‧Front value positive6
07：50 日本第三季央行短观大型非制造业景气判断指数‧Predict positive18‧Front value positive19
07：50 日本第三季央行短观小型制造业景气判断指数‧Predict negative5‧Negative front value5
07：50 日本第三季央行短观小型非制造业景气判断指数‧Predict negative1‧前值零
07：50 日本第三季央行短观大型企业资本支出预估‧forecast+6.8%‧Previous value+6.2%
07：50 日本第三季央行短观小型企业资本支出预估‧forecast-8.4%‧Previous value-14.9%
08：30 Japan9Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value50.3
15：15 Switzerland8Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value-2.2%
15：30 Switzerland9Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value51
15：45 Italy9monthMarkit/ADACIManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value49.8
15：50 France9monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value49.5
15：55 Germany9monthMarkit/BMEManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast54.3‧Previous value54.3
16：00 意大利第二季公共赤字与国内生产总值(GDP)Ratio‧Previous value4.70%
16：00 eurozone9monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast52.6‧Previous value52.6
16：30 britain9monthMarkit/CIPSManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value53.3
21：30 Canada9monthRBC经季节调整的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)‧Previous value51.1
21：45 U.S.A9monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value51.4
22：00 U.S.A8Monthly construction expenditure rate‧forecast-0.2%‧Front value remains unchanged
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Manufacturing Index‧forecast50.5‧Previous value49.4
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧Previous value53.0
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧Previous value48.3
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value49.1



9month30day
LondongoldMorning order price:1327.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1322.50



Today's Introduction

人民币正式加入特别提款权货币篮子

International Monetary Fund(IMF)周五宣布，纳入人民币的特别提款权(SDR)新货币篮子于10month1日正式生效，并确定新的篮子货币相对数量。IMF称，新的SDR货币篮子包含美元、欧元、人民币、日元和英镑五种货币，权重分别为41.73%、30.93%、10.92%、8.33%and8.09%，对应的货币数量分别为0.58252、0.38671、1.0174、11.900、0.085946。货币权重每五年调整一次。



XAU London Gold - 金价三角区间争持

The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust 周五黄金持仓量下降0.13%, to947.95吨，周四为949.14吨。以盎司计算，黄金持仓量从30,515,759.67盎司降至30,477,603.58ounce.

在美联储前一周宣布9月宣布维持利率不变后，金价曾升见至1340上方，但上周明显乏力。先是在美国总统候选人首场辩论后，黄金跌破1330美元支撑，一定程度上显示总统辩论之前的避险情绪有所消退，黄金加深调整力度，周五低见1312.70水平。倘若特朗普胜出，其推行的政治经济政策或不按常理出牌，将增加了美国经济政治前景的不确定性，从而引致避险需求增加。但首轮辩论过程中，市场投资者明显觉得希拉莉更胜一筹，避险情绪暂时消退，黄金走势则告承压。此外，美元回升且产油国达成减产协议后全球股市上扬，亦打压了金价走势。Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) 周三同意小幅减产，为2008年以来的首次；面对越来越沉重的低油价压力，OPEC领袖沙特阿拉伯对劲敌伊朗的立场有所软化。纵然德意志银鸻的风险事件一度掀起风险情绪，但周五亦只作先升后回挫，尾盘报1315.80USD.

As shown in the technical chart, the gold price is currently relatively close to the resistance reference1331，上方的下降趋向线阻力位于1346水平，若然这一道历时三个多月的下降趋向线破位，则有望金价将见开展新一轮升势，延伸目标预估为1352and1378美元。下方支持见于三角底部1315美元，上周五已见曾一度失守，若本周价位居于此区下方，则提高了金价进一步回挫的风险；另一瞩目支撑则为100Balance moving average position1310，破位较大支撑预料为1298and1271USD.

美国将在本周公布大量数据，这也增添了市场的不安。目前认为美联储在12月升息的可能性仍为50-50左右。需关注的数据包括周一公布的9Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)、8月建筑业支出，周三的9Monthly non manufacturing industryPMIand8月工厂订单，以及周五压轴登场9Monthly non farm employment report.

London Gold10Monthly predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1323 – 1342 – 1373 – 1398
Support bit:1289 – 1270 – 1245 – 1219

London Gold10month3 – 7Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1322 – 1331 – 1351 – 1373
Support bit:1300 – 1291 – 1277 – 1262

London Gold10month3day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1310 – 1322
Resistance level:1334 – 1350
Support bit:1302 – 1286

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton
9month9Day - 939.94ton
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year9month7day)

Global:32924.2ton (120.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1828.6ton (+5.3ton)
Russia(7)：1506.0ton (+7.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价续处争持，酝酿三角破位

伦敦白银方面，在近两个月，整体银价波幅正逐步收窄，并形成一组三角型态，上方顶部目前位于19.95美元，下方底部见于18.91美元；同时，价位亦交迭于多组中短期平均线，意味着银价正处待变局面，倘若任何一方破位，将可望延伸一段单边行情。向上较近阻力可参考20.10and21.00美元，至于下方延伸支撑料为100Balance moving average position18.68as well as18.20USD, next level material is17.80。

London Silver10Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:20.00 – 20.90 – 21.70 – 22.50
Support bit:18.30 – 17.60 – 16.80 – 16.00

London Silver10month3 – 7Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:19.70 – 20.20 – 21.00 – 21.60
Support bit:18.60 – 18.30 – 17.90 – 17.40

London Silver10month3day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.50 – 20.00
Resistance level:20.60 – 21.00
Support bit:17.80 – 17.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton
9month9Day - 11281.84ton
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton
9month21Day - 11305.47ton
9month22Day - 11305.47ton
9month23Day - 11337.95ton
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

欧元兑美元周五从九日低位反弹，因对德意志银行体质的担忧缓解，但避险货币日圆和瑞郎因此承压。德银美国上市股票最新上扬近15%，周四触及纪录低位。德银遭遇危机的最直接原因是，美国司法部要求该行以140亿美元罚款来和解一项抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)相关调查。德银正就和解金额与司法部进行磋商。法新社报导，德银接近与司法部达成54亿美元的和解协议。消息扶助欧元反弹，欧元升回至1.12section.

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360区间内，并且已走入三角型态的末端区域，估计短期将会开展新一轮单边行情。上方注目于三角顶部1.1280，破位才可望欧元继续自七月来的反扑行情。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考。反之，若向下失守三角底部1.1140To the extent that250Balance moving average position1.11，将见欧元迎来一波下挫，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal.

Focus:
10month3day(one): Italy9monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany9monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧意大利第二季公共赤字与GDPRatio‧eurozone9monthMarkit制造业采PMIFinal value
10month4day(two)：17：00 eurozone8monthPPI
10month5day(three): Italy9monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France9monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany9monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧eurozone9monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly retail sales
10month6day(four): Germany8Monthly industrial order rate
10month7day(five): Germany8Monthly industrial production rate‧France8Monthly budget balance‧流动帐‧industrial production ‧trade balance

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1280 – 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1160 – 1.1100 – 1.1000



JPY yen - 维持三角争持待变

美联储主席耶伦上周称，如果就业市场继续改善，且不出现新的严重风险，她预计今年会升息一次。因此，经济分析师和金融市场相信，12月会升息。美联储今年最后一次政策会议在12month13-14日召开前，还有三次非农就业报告要公布，9月这份报告或许可以减小有关劳动力市场闲置情况的争议。上周五的数据显示通胀加速迹象，但消费者支出却意外下滑，因此本周的Supply Management Association(ISM) 9月制造业与非制造业活动指数也将受到密切关注。市场即将迎来又一个美联储官员讲话的密集周，周五在就业报告公布后，将有四位官员发表讲话。

日圆兑美元连涨第三季。投资者怀疑日本央行的刺激举措实际上已经达到极限，已丧失压低日圆的能力，这扶助在过去一季提振日圆。在德意志银行的疑虑导致全球股市下跌之际，通常被视为避险货币的日圆一度反弹，但仍止步于100关口；至周五围绕德银的忧虑缓解，扶助美元兑日圆回升，尾盘报101.33。目前美元仍一直支撑于100日圆上方，许多人视此一水平为重要心理关卡。外界揣测日本投资者可能在10month1日起新财年下半年敲进更多外国资产，短期内或将抑制日圆涨势。市场人士也提防日本当局可能企图放话压低日圆，即便他们认为当局在这个阶段不太可能进行干预。

技术走势而言，汇价正陷入一组大型三角的末端区域，上方顶部见于102.75，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average104.10To the extent that107.50水平。三角底部99.75则为关键支持参考，需慎防破位将驱使汇价进入新一轮下跌行情，下一级关注6月份守住的99To the extent that100Monthly average line96.80Horizontal.

Focus:
10month3day(one)：日本第三季央行制造业景气判断指数‧Non manufacturing business sentiment assessment index‧企业资本支出预估‧Japan9Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
10month4day(two): Japan9Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
10month6day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks
10month7day(five): Japan9monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan8Monthly overtime pay‧同时指标月率‧Leading indicator monthly rate

Related news
安倍晋三称，日本央行新政策架构将强化货币政策
黑田东彦称将寻求适当收益率曲线来达成物价目标
黑田东彦：购债规模可能会有起伏

Japan8Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year2.1%
Japan8月零售销售较前月萎缩1.1%，为三个月来首度下滑
Bank of Japan8月消费者物价较上年同期上涨0.4%
Japan8Monthly CoreCPI较上年同期减少0.5%
Japan8Monthly household expenses decreased compared to the same period last year4.6%
Japan8月工业生产较前月增加1.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 102.75* – 104.10 – 107.50
support 99.75* – 99.00 – 96.80



GBP pound - 美元维持走稳

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元在八月份处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，将视为目前重要支撑依据，在目前已见破位下，本周料英镑仍会继续探低，较大支持则会参考1.29To the extent that8Monthly low1.2863. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average1.3165and1.3250水平，下一级料为1.33。

Focus:
10month3day(one): UK9monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
10month4day(two): UK9monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
10month5day(three): UK9monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI
10month7day(five): UK9monthHalifaxHouse Price Index‧britain8Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3165 – 1.3250 – 1.3300
support 1.2900 – 1.2863



CHF Swiss franc - 德银忧虑损及投资者风险胃纳

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
10month3day(one)Switzerland8Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland9Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
10month6day(four)Switzerland9monthCPI        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 德银境况打击风险偏好，澳元走势承压

图表走势分析，澳元兑美元上周企稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7490水平，倘若跌破，预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。较近阻力则会先见于下降趋向线0.7710and0.7760水平；至于向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可回破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面；初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。

Focus:
10month3day(one): Australia9monthAIGManufacturing Index
10month4day(two): Australia8Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit‧Australia9monthANZNewspaper job advertisement‧ANZOnline recruitment advertisement‧Australia10Monthly central bank interest rate decision
10month5day(three): Australia9monthAIGService Industry Index‧Australia8Monthly retail sales
10month6day(four): Australia8月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
10month7day(five): Australia9monthAIG建筑业指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7710 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7490* – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 减息预期打压纽元

技术走势而言，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.7740，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，至于较近阻力则会见于0.74及本月初未能突破的0.75水平。下方支撑预估50Balance moving average0.7230，过去两个月来汇价亦是稳守着50天线，故此，若果此趟失守，下试支撑料为0.7160and0.70Gateway.

Focus:
10month4day(two)New Zealand Season 3NZIERBusiness confidence index‧NZIERCapacity utilization rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7700 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7210 – 0.7160 – 0.7000



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month3day(one): Canada9monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
10month5day(three): Canada8Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import
10month6day(four): Canada8Monthly building permit rate
10month7day(five): Canada9Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500








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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

我一直以为山是水的故事，云是风的故事，你是我的故事，可是却不知道，我是不是你的故事