Crossing the Sea 2016year9month29day

Crossing the Sea 2016year9month29day

Focus this week:
9month29day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A8Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A8Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
美国第二季商业获利修订
Season 2 in the United StatesGDPMonth on month annual rate final value
Season 2 in the United StatesGDP平减指数终值
US Q2 CorePCEFinal value of price index
Season 2 in the United StatesPCEFinal value of price index
U.S.A8Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

9month30day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A8Monthly personal income rate‧支出月率
U.S.A8Monthly CorePCEprice index
U.S.A8monthPCEprice index
U.S.A9Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A9月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值

10month1day(Saturday)
U.S.A8Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean



Important economic data released today:
20：00 Germany9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value-0.1%
20：00 Germany9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.3%
20：00 Germany9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)初值月率‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Front value remains unchanged
20：00 Germany9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)初值年率‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(9month24Day and Week)‧forecast26.0ten thousand people‧Previous value25.2ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(9month24Day and Week)‧Previous value25.850ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(9month17Day and Week)‧forecast213.0ten thousand people‧Previous value211.3ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A8Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 U.S.A8Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance‧Previous value587.8A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 美国第二季商业获利修订‧Previous value-2.4%
20：30 美国第二季国内生产总值(GDP)Month on month annual rate final value‧forecast+1.3%‧Previous value+1.1%
20：30 美国第二季最终销售终值‧forecast+2.5%‧Previous value+2.4%
20：30 美国第二季消费者支出终值‧Previous value+4.4%
20：30 美国第二季国内生产总值(GDP)平减指数终值‧forecast+2.3%‧Previous value+2.3%
20：30 美国第二季核心个人消费支出(PCE)Final value of price index‧forecast+1.8%‧Previous value+1.8%
20：30 Personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter of the United States(PCE)Final value of price index‧forecast+2.0%‧Previous value+2.0%
22：00 U.S.A8Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value+1.3%



News of the Week

达拉斯联储总裁柯普朗称，就算9月升息他也没有意见
明尼亚波利斯联储总裁：联储上周维持利率不变是正确之举
美国国会通过融资法案，避免了政府关门
耶伦在众议院为联储监管角色辩护，提及调整压力测试方法

U.S.A8月新屋销售较前月骤降7.6%to60.910000 households
U.S.A9The monthly consumer confidence index is104.1, for2007year8The highest in the past month
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank9The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is negative8
U.S.A9monthMARKITService industryPMIThe initial value is51.9
U.S.A9monthMARKITcomprehensivePMIThe initial value is52.0
U.S.A8Revised monthly building permit annual rate to115.210000 households
U.S.A8月耐用品订单较前月持平
U.S.A8月扣除国防的耐久财订单下降1.0%
U.S.A8月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单较前月增长0.6%
U.S.A8月扣除运输的耐久财订单较前月下降0.4%



9month28day
LondongoldMorning order price:1324.80
London gold afternoon fixing price:1322.50



Today's Introduction

耶伦在众议院为联储监管角色辩护，提及调整压力测试方法

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)主席耶伦周三在众议院金融服务委员会作证时，为该央行的监管角色出言辩护，在富国银行等被认为大而不倒的银行问题上与议员展开口头交锋，并针对联储存在政治利益冲突的指责作出解释。在证词陈述中，耶伦还详细阐述了美联储考虑如何调整对美国银行业的年度压力测试。她说，美联储将改用更加重视风险、且针对性较强的方式进行测试，这“将导致针对美国前八大银行的总资本要求大幅提升”。她对金融服务委员会称，在曝出富国银行私自为客户开设账户的丑闻后，美联储正在检视美国大银行是否遵守了银行业规定。富国银行被控在未经授权的情况下开立了多达200万个客户账户，并已达成和解。耶伦对于干预富国银行存有异议，但称美联储已经启动所有大型银行的检讨工作，全面关切合规问题。

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)经过数小时磋商，周三在阿尔及尔意外达成减产协议，为2008年以来的首次。受此影响，crude oil价格随后跳涨近6%。该组织14个成员国还需要决定如何分配减产额度，下次会晤定在11月底，届时该组织将成立一个小组，料将制定分配计划，确定如何达成每日减产约70万桶、将所有成员国总产出降至3,25010000 barrels/Day.



XAU London Gold - 金价三角区间争持

金价周四回吐稍早涨幅，因美元回升且产油国达成减产协议后全球股市上扬。Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) 周三同意小幅减产，为2008年以来的首次；面对越来越沉重的低油价压力，OPEC领袖沙特阿拉伯对劲敌伊朗的立场有所软化。

技术图表所见，目前较近阻力参考1333，上方的下降趋向线阻力位于1348，若然这一道历时三个多月的下降趋向线破位，则有望金价将见开展新一轮升势，延伸目标预估为1356美元。下方支持见于1321，瞩目则会于100Balance moving average position1309，破位较大支撑则为1301。

London Gold9month29day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1321 – 1333
Resistance level:1342 – 1356
Support bit:1311 – 1301

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton
9month9Day - 939.94ton
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year9month7day)

Global:32924.2ton (120.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1828.6ton (+5.3ton)
Russia(7)：1506.0ton (+7.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 三角争持

伦敦白银方面，在近两个月，整体银价波幅正逐步收窄，并形成一组三角型态，上方顶部目前位于20美元关口，下方底部见于18.83美元；同时，价位亦交迭于多组中短期平均线，意味着银价正处待变局面，倘若任何一方破位，将可望延伸一段单边行情。向上较近阻力可参考19.50and19.80美元，至于下方延伸支撑料为100Balance moving average position18.64as well as18.40USD.

London Silver9month29day
Predicting early wave amplitude:19.00 – 19.50
Resistance level:19.80 – 20.40
Support bit:18.70 – 18.40

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton
9month2Day - 11184.37ton
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton
9month9Day - 11281.84ton
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton
9month21Day - 11305.47ton
9month22Day - 11305.47ton
9month23Day - 11337.95ton
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

欧洲央行总裁德拉吉 周三驳斥了德国对负利率的批评，称其货币政策是欧元区回归成长之路并刺激通胀所必须的。德拉吉表示，德国是欧洲央行宽松政策的受益者，其银行业者的困境实际上是由于效率低下造成的。他表示，现在所要做的就是等待他们推出的举措充分发挥作用，并敦促柏林增加支出。

德国周三以纪录低位的收益率标售两年期公债，投资者担心欧洲金融业体质，带动避险公债需求强劲。德国以纪录低位负0.7%标售31.91亿欧元公债。本周德债收益率大幅下跌，因担心德意志银行面临美国当局罚款140亿美元，将可能需要向德国政府求助。据德国时代周报周三报导，德国政府和财政部门正在准备针对德意志银行的援救计划，以防该行无力筹资来支付高昂的诉讼。不过，德国财政部周三否认了这则媒体报导。

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360区间内，并且已走入三角型态的末端区域，估计短期将会开展新一轮单边行情。上方注目于三角顶部1.1280，破位才可望欧元继续自七月来的反扑行情。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考。反之，若向下失守三角底部1.1140To the extent that250Balance moving average position1.11，将见欧元迎来一波下挫，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Eurozone9Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数‧Germany9monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value
Friday: France8Monthly consumer expenditure&#8231PI‧France9monthHICPinitial value‧Italy8Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone8Monthly unemployment rate‧Italy9monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value&#8231PI

Related news
Germany8Monthly import prices have decreased compared to the previous month0.2%, down from the same period last year2.6%
France9The monthly consumer confidence index remains stable at97
Germany10monthGFK消费者信心指数略降至10.0
Germany8Monthly basisILO标准计算的经季节调整就业人口增加1.4ten thousand people
Germany9An increase in unemployment due to seasonal adjustments during menstruation1,000Person to268ten thousand people
Germany9月经季节调整的失业率持平于6.1%
Germany9月未经季节调整的总失业人口降至260.8ten thousand people

意大利将在12month4日就宪法改革举行公投
欧洲央行总裁德拉吉称，经济失衡有“动摇”欧元区的风险
德意志银行称将自行解决美国140亿美元罚款，不会求助政府
欧洲央行总裁为负利率辩护，并敦促德国政府增加支出

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1280 – 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1160 – 1.1100 – 1.1000



JPY yen - 探试三角底部

日本央行总裁黑田东彦周四表示，央行将寻求最适当的收益率曲线，以实现2%的通胀目标。他还表示，央行准备通过下调短期和长期利率目标，或扩大高风险资产购买规模，来进一步放松政策。黑田东彦称，若有必要，日本央行还可以选择更快扩大货币基础。在上周的议息会议上，日本央行将政策目标从基础货币转向利率。已持续数年的大规模资产购买未能让日本经济摆脱长达十数年的停滞局面。在新的“收益率曲线控制”框架下，日本央行承诺将10年期公债收益率维持在零附近。央行还维持对金融机构的部分超额准备金实施负0.1%The interest rate.

Japan8月零售销售连续第六个月较上年同期下降，且降幅大于预期，因服饰及家电用品销售下滑，令决策制定者持续承受需想方设法提振家庭支出的压力。经济产业省周四公布的数据显示，8Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year2.1%，降幅大于市场调查预估中值的下降1.8%。数据疲弱突显了日本经济相对脆弱，因薪资增长缓慢及复苏前景低迷给家庭支出带来沉重压力。数据显示，8月零售销售较前月萎缩1.1%，为三个月来首度下滑。

美元兑避险日圆周四上涨，触及八日高位，因为在石油输出国组织(OPEC)达成减产协议后，投资者转而青睐高风险资产。OPEC将把每日原油产量缩减至3,250-3,300万桶之间。OPEC估计目前的产量水平在每日3,324万桶，减产幅度为0.7-2.2%。

技术走势而言，汇价正陷入一组大型三角的末端区域，上方顶部见于102.75，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average104.10To the extent that107.50水平。三角底部99.75则为关键支持参考，需慎防破位将驱使汇价进入新一轮下跌行情，下一级关注6月份守住的99To the extent that100Monthly average line96.80Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Japan8All monthly household expenses‧CPI‧Japan9monthCPI‧Japan8Monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率

Related news
安倍晋三称，日本央行新政策架构将强化货币政策
黑田东彦称将寻求适当收益率曲线来达成物价目标

Japan8Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year2.1%
Japan8月零售销售较前月萎缩1.1%，为三个月来首度下滑        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 102.75* – 104.10 – 107.50
support 99.75* – 99.00 – 96.80



GBP pound - 美元维持走稳，关注联储决议

英镑兑美元周三下跌，此前英国央行副总裁夏菲克称，她预期央行将需要“在某个时候”推出更多刺激措施，帮助经济应对退欧带来的冲击。夏菲克称，年内是否降息将取决于经济数据表现，但表示她宁愿采取先发制人行动，而不是“滞后反应，行动太少又太迟”。她的讲话与英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)委员福布斯的说法形成对比。福布斯上周称，没有进一步降息的理由。他们的言论都不及英国央行总裁卡尼的言论那么积极，卡尼周三在报纸采访中称，英国经济的长期前景是正面的，此番言论助推英镑在欧洲早盘交易中升至1.3032USD.

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元在八月份处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，将视为目前重要支撑依据，在目前已见破位下，本周料英镑仍会继续探低，较大支持则会参考1.29To the extent that8Monthly low1.2863. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average1.3165and1.3250水平，下一级料为1.33。

Focus:
Thursday: UK8Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
9month30day(five)：英国第二季GDP‧商业投资‧流动帐平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3165 – 1.3250 – 1.3300
support 1.2900 – 1.2863



CHF Swiss franc - 守稳0.95brace

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
9month28day(three)Switzerland8UBS Group(UBS)Consumer index        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 风险情绪改善，澳元持续走稳

澳元周四升至三周高位，为连续第四日上涨，受惠于石油输出国组织(OPEC)同意减产后油价应声上涨。澳元兑美元受到提振，因澳洲是主要的自然资源出口国，尽管它是石油净进口国。

图表走势分析，澳元兑美元上周企稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7490水平，倘若跌破，预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。较近阻力则会先见于下降趋向线0.7710and0.7760水平；至于向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可回破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面；初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。

Focus:
Friday: Australia9monthHIA新屋销售月率‧Australia8月民间部门信贷‧Housing credit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7710 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7490* – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 减息预期打压纽元

纽西兰央行周四称，纽元保持强势以及楼市失衡，对金融稳定构成风险。央行指出，银行对楼市曝险太多，抵押贷款已经占到银行总资产的55%左右。央行还称，家庭债务达到创纪录水平，相当于家庭可支配收入的163%。纽西兰央行周四指出，尽管已经六次调降官方隔夜拆款利率，但基于贸易加权指数，纽元汇率仍较去年6Monthly elevation2.5%。此外，“短期通胀率预期有些减弱”。惠勒周四重申，调降官方隔夜拆款利率的一大关键依据是，降低通胀率预期进一步下滑的风险。

技术走势而言，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.7740，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，至于较近阻力则会见于0.74及本月初未能突破的0.75水平。下方支撑预估50Balance moving average0.7230，过去两个月来汇价亦是稳守着50天线，故此，若果此趟失守，下试支撑料为0.7160and0.70Gateway.

Related news
央行称纽元升值及楼市失衡给金融稳定带来重大风险

Focus:
Friday: New Zealand8Monthly Building Permit‧New Zealand9月国民银行(NBNZ)商业展望指数‧National Bank(NBNZ)Business Activity Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7700 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7210 – 0.7160 – 0.7000



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

商品货币周四持坚，此前石油输出国组织(OPEC)to2008年以来首次同意小幅减产，提振油价大涨。OPEC将把每日原油产量缩减至3,250-3,300万桶之间。OPEC估计目前的产量水平在每日3,324万桶，减产幅度为0.7-2.2%。该消息推升油价，布兰特原油创下两个半月最大涨幅，并触及每桶48.96美元的三周高点。加元上涨，因石油是加拿大的主要出口品。美元兑加元跌见至1.3050Horizontal.

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Canada7monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada8月工业产品价格‧原材料价格

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

曾经拥有的不要忘记；不能得到的更要珍惜；属于自己的不要放弃；已经失去的留作回忆。我刚来~~~嘿嘿~~