Crossing the Sea 2016year9month28day

Crossing the Sea 2016year9month28day

Focus this week:
9month28day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly rate of durable goods orders

9month29day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A8Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A8Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
美国第二季商业获利修订
Season 2 in the United StatesGDPMonth on month annual rate final value
Season 2 in the United StatesGDP平减指数终值
US Q2 CorePCEFinal value of price index
Season 2 in the United StatesPCEFinal value of price index
U.S.A8Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

9month30day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A8Monthly personal income rate‧支出月率
U.S.A8Monthly CorePCEprice index
U.S.A8monthPCEprice index
U.S.A9Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A9月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值

10month1day(Saturday)
U.S.A8Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean



Important economic data released today:        
17：00 Italy8Monthly Salary Index Monthly Rate‧Front value remains unchanged
17：00 Italy8Monthly salary index annual rate‧Previous value+0.6%
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value530.8
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value2,309.6
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index‧Previous value221.1
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate‧Previous value3.70%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly rate of durable goods orders‧forecast-1.4%‧Previous value+4.4%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation‧forecast-0.4%‧Previous value+1.3%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense‧forecast-1.1%‧Previous value+3.7%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft‧forecast-0.2%‧Previous value+1.5%



News of the Week

达拉斯联储总裁柯普朗称，就算9月升息他也没有意见
明尼亚波利斯联储总裁：联储上周维持利率不变是正确之举

U.S.A8月新屋销售较前月骤降7.6%to60.910000 households
U.S.A9The monthly consumer confidence index is104.1, for2007year8The highest in the past month
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank9The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is negative8
U.S.A9monthMARKITService industryPMIThe initial value is51.9
U.S.A9monthMARKITcomprehensivePMIThe initial value is52.0
U.S.A8Revised monthly building permit annual rate to115.210000 households



9month27day
LondongoldMorning order price:1335.85
London gold afternoon fixing price:1327.00



Today's Introduction

伊朗拒绝沙特限产提议，OPEC周三达成协议希望不大

伊朗周二拒绝了沙特阿拉伯提出的建议，即伊朗限制石油产量以换取沙特减产，从而粉碎了市场对这两个主要石油输出国组织(OPEC)产油国本周达成妥协、以缓解全球crude oil供应过剩局面的期望。伊朗石油部长尚甘尼稍早称，“现在还不是作决定的时候”。他补充道，“我们将尝试在11月达成协议。”意指OPECWill be on11month30日在维也纳举行的下次正式会议。

尽管美联储上周的政策声明暗示12月可能升息，但此后利率futures市场反映的12月升息机率不断下降。目前利率期货显示，12月升息的机率不到50%，低于美联储上周政策会议后达到的逾60%。美联储副主席费希尔(Stanley Fischer)周二发表的相对强硬的言论基本未能改变上述预期。他提到了就业市场改善，但也称美联储应避免过度升息。美联储主席耶伦今日稍后将在国会一个委员会发表半年度证词陈述，但她的侧重点可能是金融监管。



XAU London Gold - 金价三角区间争持

受美元走强拖累，金价周三下滑并触及一周低位，前一交易日曾录得近一个月最大单日跌幅。周二金价下跌近1%, creating8month30日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，因为投资者认为，美国民主党总统候选人希拉里克林顿在与共和党竞争对手特朗普的首次电视辩论中胜出，提振了对股票等高风险资产的偏好。金价周三一度触及1321.75USD, for9month21The lowest level in recent days.The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)-- SPDR Gold Trust周二的黄金持仓量下降0.22%to949.14Tons.

技术图表所见，目前较近阻力参考1331，上方的下降趋向线阻力位于1348，若然这一道历时三个多月的下降趋向线破位，则有望金价将见开展新一轮升势，延伸目标预估为1360美元。下方支持见于1319，瞩目则会于100Balance moving average position1309，破位较大支撑则为1298。

London Gold9month28day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1319 – 1331
Resistance level:1346 – 1360
Support bit:1309 – 1298

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton
9month9Day - 939.94ton
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton


10Maturity date of monthly gold futures:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year9month7day)

Global:32924.2ton (120.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1828.6ton (+5.3ton)
Russia(7)：1506.0ton (+7.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 三角争持

伦敦白银方面，在近两个月，整体银价波幅正逐步收窄，并形成一组三角型态，上方顶部目前位于20美元关口，下方底部见于18.83美元；同时，价位亦交迭于多组中短期平均线，意味着银价正处待变局面，倘若任何一方破位，将可望延伸一段单边行情。向上较近阻力可参考19.30and19.50美元，至于下方延伸支撑料为100Balance moving average position18.64as well as18.00USD.

London Silver9month28day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.80 – 19.30
Resistance level:19.50 – 19.90
Support bit:18.50 – 18.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton
9month2Day - 11184.37ton
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton
9month9Day - 11281.84ton
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton
9month21Day - 11305.47ton
9month22Day - 11305.47ton
9month23Day - 11337.95ton
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

意大利周一宣布，将于今年的12month4日举行宪法改革全民公投。此次改革将把意大利国会参议员人数削减近三分之二，降至100人，并且允许许多法案仅获得众议院批准即可。只有选举或宪法改革等部分类型的法案需获得国会两院批准。意大利总理伦齐和他所在的中间偏左政党民主党于2014year4月提出政治改革议案，主要是将参议员数量从315名减少到100名、限制参议院解散政府的权力等。但由于议案未能得到法案立即生效所需的三分之二的议会投票通过，根据宪法，需要举行公投来决定议案是否成为立法。此前的民调显示，对于此次公投通过与否的支持率徘徊于五成左右。

意大利总理伦齐此前曾表示，如果他的提议未能在公投中通过，将辞去总理一职，届时可能重演前总理贝卢斯科尼被迫下台后政治动乱的局面。同时，「疑欧派」的五星运动党可能会是这次公投失利的最大受益者。6月，罗马选出了历史上的首位女市长拉吉(Virginia Raggi)，她正是来自五星运动党，在市长选举中获得了67%的选民支持。今年七月Demos institute进行的一项调查显示，五星运动党已经取代伦齐所在的民主党成为意大利最受民众欢迎的党派，五星运动党主张脱欧。这次公投可能会是继英国脱欧公投之后，欧洲迎来又一起重大风险事件。虽然修宪不等于退欧，但若修宪公投失败，民粹党上台或会触发退欧公投，政治不确定性提升欧洲风险，可能会带来多米诺骨牌效应。目前，民粹主义政党在不少欧盟国家均有不同程度抬头，法国的国民阵线、德国的新选择党、西班牙的社会民主力量党以及奥地利的自由党等都属于类似五星运动的民粹政党；而欧盟内部的法国、瑞典、比利时等国脱欧呼声也较高。倘若意大利也退出欧元区，骨牌效应驱使之下，或会诱发欧元区出现崩溃风险，并对欧元造成沉重打击。

欧元兑美元下跌至1.12水平下方，过去一日因市场对欧洲金融体系健康的担忧而承压。欧元周二下滑，当时德意志银行股价跌至纪录低点，受美国司法部要求该公司缴纳140亿美元罚金事件的拖累。European Central Bank(ECB) 总裁德拉吉周三将发表两次讲话。他上午将在欧洲央行首届年度研究会议上讲话，稍晚将前往柏林，在德国议会发表演说。

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360区间内，并且已走入三角型态的末端区域，估计短期将会开展新一轮单边行情。上方注目于三角顶部1.1280，破位才可望欧元继续自七月来的反扑行情。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考。反之，若向下失守三角底部1.1140To the extent that250Balance moving average position1.11，将见欧元迎来一波下挫，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Italy9Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Consumer confidence index‧Italy8Monthly salary index
Thursday: Germany9Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧eurozone9Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数‧Germany9monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value
Friday: France8Monthly consumer expenditure&#8231PI‧France9monthHICPinitial value‧Italy8Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone8Monthly unemployment rate‧Italy9monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value&#8231PI

Related news
Germany8Monthly import prices have decreased compared to the previous month0.2%, down from the same period last year2.6%
France9The monthly consumer confidence index remains stable at97
Germany10monthGFK消费者信心指数略降至10.0

意大利将在12month4日就宪法改革举行公投
欧洲央行总裁德拉吉称，经济失衡有“动摇”欧元区的风险
德意志银行称将自行解决美国140亿美元罚款，不会求助政府

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1280 – 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1160 – 1.1100 – 1.1000



JPY yen - 探试三角底部

日本首相安倍晋三周三表示，政府将继续与日本央行密切合作，动用所有政策工具以击退通缩并推动经济增长。安倍在参议院表示，日本央行最近调整政策框架旨在迅速达到2%The inflation target.

美元兑日圆周三上涨，市场焦点转向美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席耶伦今日稍晚的证词陈述。美联储主席耶伦今日稍后将在国会一个委员会发表半年度证词陈述，尽管她的侧重点可能是金融监管，但亦有指她有可能会被问到关于美联储对利率及经济前景预期的问题。克利夫兰联储总裁梅斯特和堪萨斯城联储总裁乔治也将分别就经济和货币政策发表讲话。两者都被市场视为强硬派，上次会议两人都投票加息。美元兑日圆上涨至100.80水平，周二曾创下一个月低点100.07。

技术走势而言，较近阻力预估在10Balance moving average101.15。图表上可见到汇价正陷入一组大型三角的末端区域，上方顶部见于102.75，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average104.10To the extent that107.50水平。三角底部99.75则为关键支持参考，需慎防破位将驱使汇价进入新一轮下跌行情，下一级关注6月份守住的99To the extent that100Monthly average line96.80Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week
Friday: Japan8All monthly household expenses‧CPI‧Japan9monthCPI‧Japan8Monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率

Related news
安倍晋三称，日本央行新政策架构将强化货币政策

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 101.15 – 102.75* – 104.10 – 107.50
support 99.75* – 99.00 – 96.80



GBP pound - 美元维持走稳，关注联储决议

英国公投退欧后三个月，汇市投资人担心英国“硬性”退欧将令银行纷纷撤离伦敦，这打压英镑逼近数十年最低水准。担心或揣摩英镑汇率的投资人及企业经历了过山车般的走势。在6month23日令人震惊的退欧公投结果公布后，英镑数日内暴跌逾二千点，但之后至本月初，英镑又收复了约三分之一的失地。这大致上反映出市场对英国经济会如何应对退欧谈判结果预期的转变。退欧谈判可能使英国失去进入欧洲这一单一市场的通道，但从而能对移民实施控制。过去十天，负责退欧事务的几位部长的讲话令投资人愈发担心会出现上述情况，拖累英镑周一跌穿1.30美元，兑欧元触及六周低点0.87GBP.

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元在八月份处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，将视为目前重要支撑依据，在目前已见破位下，本周料英镑仍会继续探低，较大支持则会参考1.29To the extent that8Monthly low1.2863. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average1.3165and1.3250水平，下一级料为1.33。

Focus:
Thursday: UK8Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
9month30day(five)：英国第二季GDP‧商业投资‧流动帐平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3165 – 1.3250 – 1.3300
support 1.2900 – 1.2863



CHF Swiss franc - 守稳0.95brace

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
9month28day(three)Switzerland8UBS Group(UBS)Consumer index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 风险情绪改善，澳元持续走稳

澳元兑美元周三持稳于三周高位附近，全球风险偏好升温推动澳元第三日上涨，市场认为美国民主党总统候选人希拉里在与共和党候选人特朗普的首场辩论中更胜一筹。

图表走势分析，澳元兑美元上周持稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7490水平，倘若跌破，预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。较近阻力则会先见于下降趋向线0.7710and0.7760Horizontal; as for0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可回破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面；初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。

Focus:
Friday: Australia9monthHIA新屋销售月率‧Australia8月民间部门信贷‧Housing credit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7710 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7490* – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 减息预期打压纽元

自纽西兰央行上周维持利率在2.0%不变以来，纽元累计下跌约1.4%，最低见于周一的0.7221。纽西兰央行总裁惠勒保留了今年稍晚降息的可能性。技术走势而言，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.77，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，进一步可参考250Weekly moving average0.7750To the extent that0.78关口；较近阻力可参考月初未能突破的0.75水平。下方支撑预估在通道底部0.7210，较大支撑料为0.7160and0.70Gateway.

Focus:
Friday: New Zealand8Monthly Building Permit‧New Zealand9月国民银行(NBNZ)商业展望指数‧National Bank(NBNZ)Business Activity Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7700 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7210 – 0.7160 – 0.7000



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Canada7monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada8月工业产品价格‧原材料价格

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

我以为小鸟飞不过沧海，是以为小鸟没有飞过沧海的勇气，十年以后我才发现，不是小鸟飞不过去，而是沧海的那一头，早已没有了等待……