Crossing the Sea 2016year9month23day

View All · Published on 2016-9-23 18:02:06

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Crossing the Sea 2016year9month23day

Focus this week:
9month26day(Monday)
U.S.A8Monthly sales of new houses
U.S.A9月达拉斯联储德州制造业活动指数

9month27day(Tuesday)
U.S.A8Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A7monthCaseShiller 20个城市经季调房价指数
U.S.A9monthMarkitcomprehensive‧Service industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A9Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A9Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

9month28day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly rate of durable goods orders

9month29day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A8Initial value of monthly wholesale inventory
U.S.A8Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
美国第二季商业获利修订
Season 2 in the United StatesGDPMonth on month annual rate final value
Season 2 in the United StatesGDP平减指数终值
US Q2 CorePCEFinal value of price index
Season 2 in the United StatesPCEFinal value of price index
U.S.A8Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

9month30day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A8Monthly personal income rate‧支出月率
U.S.A8Monthly CorePCEprice index
U.S.A8monthPCEprice index
U.S.A9Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A9月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值

10month1day(Saturday)
U.S.A8Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean

Important economic data released today:
20：30 Canada8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value-0.2%
20：30 Canada8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.4%‧Previous value+1.3%
20：30 Canada8Monthly Central Bank Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 Canada8Monthly Central Bank Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+2.1%‧Previous value+2.1%
20：30 Canada7Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value-0.1%
20：30 Canada7Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value-0.8%
21：45 U.S.A9monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast51.9‧Previous value52.0

News of the Week

U.S.A9monthNAHBThe housing market index is65

美联储维持利率不变，暗示年底前会升息一次

9month22day
LondongoldMorning order price:1332.45
London gold afternoon fixing price:1339.10

Today's Introduction

本周日本央行决定调整货币政策框架，放弃基础货币目标，但在QQE基础上加入收益率曲线控制；然后美联储维持利率不变，但暗示年内或升息一次，同时调降长期加息路径预期；周四纽西兰央行决定按兵不动，但宽松大门仍敞开。日本央行的政策新框架可以说是创新之举，日圆的反应是先跌后涨，因为投资人愈发质疑此番政策调整的效果，甚至怀疑此举是否意味着“从前线撤军”。而美联储的投票结果显示出联储内部立场分歧加重，而且虽然12月有可能升息利好美元，但长期升息路径预期下调，远远抵消了这种利好，美元因此全线承压。

展望下周，日本央行将公布7月政策会议记录，欧美央行还有多位官员讲话，可望从中一瞥央行官员的政策立场。此外，多国公布GDP、CPI、失业率、消费者信心等数据，可一览全球经济形势进展。

XAU London Gold - 金价守稳100MA，上探趋向线阻力

在九月份，欧洲央行、英国央行选择按兵不动，日本央行和美联储均维持利率不变，各大央行的表现基本都符合预期。Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED) to9month21日的议息会后宣布维持利率不变，但强烈暗示仍可能在年底前收紧货币政策，因就业市场进一步改善。黄金在美联储宣布维持利率不变之后大涨，日内涨幅逾20美元。最活跃COMEX12月期金合约在决定宣布的一分钟内成交量达6056手，价值逾8亿美金买盘推升现货黄金短线暴涨。

在低利率或负利率的环境下，金价年初以来已上涨24%。七月起始，金价出现一段向下修正走势，至9month1Day low see1301.91USD, for6month24日以来最低水平；9月中旬金价再次逼近1300美元关口，在连日探试下仍见守稳，结果在美联储议息结果公布后，金价大幅走升，成功脱离千三关口，美联储推迟加息的市场预期为黄金价格提供支撑。与此同时，因日本央行利率决议未能让日圆贬值，从而致使美元承压，最终也助推了黄金价格的上涨。由于美联储12月升息的预期已在近月反映在金价弱势当中，故此随着美联储的加息步伐放慢，迎来第四季走势，金价料可摆脱第三季的弱势，重新再踏上升途。

黄金，作为一种保值工具和替代投资，全球主要央行还在印钞票，而主要经济体低利率或者负利率横行，创纪录低点的全球利率水准，围绕全球货币和主权债稳定性的不确定性增加，均可望支撑金价中期走势继续走高。对黄金而言，「秋天的童话」有望再度重演。传统意义上，九月份以后，将踏入黄金的需求旺季，尤其印度亦即将迎来排灯节，被印度人视为一年中最重要的节庆，故亦可望会带动黄金买兴，从而带动金价可在今年秋天再现强势。

技术图表所见，金价在过去三个月以来屡次守住100天平均线，在未有破位下，目前有机会探试上方的下降趋向线阻力位于1349，若然这一道历时三个多月的下降趋向线破位，则有望金价将见开展新一轮升势，延伸目标预估为1373and1387美元。以黄金比率计算，中期目标可看至1420水准，为50%的反弹水平。下方支持仍会瞩目于100Balance moving average position1306as well as1300美元关口，较大支持参考估计在1287USD.

London Gold9month23day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1323 – 1338
Resistance level:1351– 1363 – 1386
Support bit:1311 – 1295 – 1276

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton
9month9Day - 939.94ton
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton

10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year9month7day)

Global:32924.2ton (120.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1828.6ton (+5.3ton)
Russia(7)：1506.0ton (+7.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton

XAG London Silver - 呈双底上行

伦敦白银方面，在八月下旬及上周，银价亦出现两趟盘底走势，随后则见大幅反弹，现时图表上已呈现一组双底型态，颈线将参考9month7Monthly high20.13美元，可视为一线关键阻力，破位将料会延伸涨势，目标则会看至20.70and21.00美元。支持位则回看19.40and19.00Further, we will see that18.60USD100天平均线位置。

London Silver9month23day
Predicting early wave amplitude:19.40 – 20.30
Resistance level:20.70 – 21.00
Support bit:19.00 – 18.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton
9month2Day - 11184.37ton
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton
9month9Day - 11281.84ton
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton
9month21Day - 11305.47ton
9month22Day - 11305.47ton

EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

周五公布的调查显示，本月欧元区企业活动以2015年初以来最慢速度扩张，增长路径出现分化，但企业于一年来首次停止调降价格。Markit的综合调查显示，强劲的制造业和疲弱服务业之间出现明显分化，而欧元区成员国之间的增长速度也出现类似分化。9月欧元区综合PMIInitial value drops to52.6Last month was52.9，数据虽高于分水岭50，但仍是自2015year1月来最低。路透调查预期，受访分析师此前预期仅略降至52.8。产出物价指数从49.3Up to50.1。

欧元兑美元走势，相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，预示欧元下跌压力弱化。短线走势仍要视乎250Balance moving average1.11水平能否守稳，若仍可再度守稳，才可望欧元继续自七月来的反扑行情。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考。反之，若向下失守250天线，将加剧欧元弱势，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09upper.

Focus:
9month26day(one): Germany9monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧Italy7Monthly retail sales‧对非欧盟国家贸易平衡初值
9month27day(two): Italy7Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales‧eurozone8monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧For household loans
9month28day(three): Germany10monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧France9Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Italy9Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Consumer confidence index‧Italy8Monthly salary index
9month29day(four): Germany9Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧eurozone9Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数‧Germany9monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value
9month30day(five): France8Monthly consumer expenditure&#8231PI‧France9monthHICPinitial value‧Italy8Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone8Monthly unemployment rate‧Italy9monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value&#8231PI

Related news
Germany8monthPPIDecline compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year1.6%
France2016Season 2 of the yearGDP终值修正为较前季下滑0.1%
eurozoneMarkit 9Monthly service industryPMIThe initial value is52.1
eurozoneMarkit 9Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe initial value is52.6
eurozoneMarkit 9Monthly comprehensivePMIThe initial value is52.6, creating2015year1Lowest since month

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1160 – 1.1100 – 1.1000

JPY yen - 探试三角底部

美元兑日圆周五回涨至101水平附近，远离上日触及的近四周低点100.10。东京市场周四适逢假日后周五重新开市，并消化了周三美联储维持利率不变，但暗示今年年底前仍将紧缩货币政策的消息。日本财务省财务官浅川雅嗣周四表示，日本财经当局正在注意汇市的投机性波动，必要时将采取响应。

技术走势而言，图表上可见到汇价正陷入一组大型三角的末端区域，上方顶部见于103.50，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average104.60To the extent that107.50水平。三角底部99.75则为关键支持参考，需慎防破位将驱使汇价进入新一轮下跌行情，下一级关注6月份守住的99To the extent that100Monthly average line96.80Horizontal.

Focus:
9month29day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week
9month30day(five): Japan8All monthly household expenses‧CPI‧Japan9monthCPI‧Japan8Monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率

Related news
日本央行维持利率水平在负0.1%unchanged
日本央行放弃基础货币目标，改为以长期利率为目标
日本央行承诺将10年期公债收益率维持在零附近
央行表示将允许通胀率超过2%
stayQQE的基础上，再引入收益率曲线目标

Japan8月出口同比下降9.6%
Japan8月进口下降17.3%
Japan8月贸易收支转为逆差187Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 103.50* – 104.60 – 107.50
support 99.75* – 99.00 – 96.80

GBP pound - 美元维持走稳，关注联储决议

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元在八月份处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，将视为目前重要支撑依据，在上周尚见险守着，但本周料英镑仍会继续探低，较大支持则会参考1.29To the extent that8Monthly low1.2863. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average1.3165and1.3250水平，下一级料为1.33。

Focus:
9month26day(one): UK8月银行业者协会(BBA)Number of approved mortgage loans
9month27day(two): UK9Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Retail sales difference
9month29day(four): UK8Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
9month30day(five)：英国第二季GDP‧商业投资‧流动帐平衡

Related news
新任央行委员桑德斯：英国经济将会放缓，但程度小于预期

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3165 – 1.3250 – 1.3300
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2900 – 1.2863

CHF Swiss franc - 守稳0.95brace

美元兑瑞郎上周处于区间横盘，央行利率不变的决议，未有为汇价带来重大冲击。图表指针所见，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数自超卖区域回升，预料汇价仍见进一步上升的动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
Switzerland8The monthly trade surplus has expanded to30.25Billion Swiss francs

The Swiss government expects2016yearGDPThe increase is1.5%(此前预计为1.4%)
The Swiss government expects2017yearGDPThe increase is1.8%(此前预计为1.8%)
The Swiss government expects2016年通胀率为负0.4%(此前预计为负0.4%)
The Swiss government expects2017The annual inflation rate is0.3%(此前预计为0.3%)

Focus:
9month28day(three)Switzerland8UBS Group(UBS)Consumer index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440

AUD AUD - hold100MAbrace

图表走势分析，澳元上周持稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7480水平。预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。较近阻力先见于0.7760；0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。

Related news
会议记录：利率前景呈现平稳，因经济平缓前行

央行总裁称降息及澳元贬值支撑经济，通胀暂时料疲弱

Focus:
9month30day(five): Australia9monthHIA新屋销售月率‧Australia8月民间部门信贷‧Housing credit

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7480* – 0.7450 – 0.7380

NZD New Zealand dollars  - 减息预期打压纽元

技术走势而言，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.77，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，进一步可参考250Weekly moving average0.7750To the extent that0.78关口；较近阻力可参考月初未能突破的0.75水平。下方支撑预估在通道底部0.7210，较大支撑料为0.7160and0.70Gateway.

Related news
纽西兰央行维持利率不变，但为进一步宽松敞开大门

Focus:
9month26day(one): New Zealand8Monthly trade balance‧Import‧Export‧New Zealand as of8Annual trade balance of the month‧
9month30day(five): New Zealand8Monthly Building Permit‧New Zealand9月国民银行(NBNZ)商业展望指数‧National Bank(NBNZ)Business Activity Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7700 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7210 – 0.7160 – 0.7000

CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
9month30day(five): Canada7monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada8月工业产品价格‧原材料价格‧

Related news
央行总裁称低利率将维持更长时间，政府支出将提振经济

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)