Crossing the Sea 2016year9month22day

Crossing the Sea 2016year9month22day

Focus this week:
9month22day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A7Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)房屋价格
U.S.A8Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A8Monthly leading indicator monthly rate



Important economic data released today:
18：00 britain9monthCBITotal industrial order difference‧Predict negative5‧Negative front value5
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(9month17Day and Week)‧forecast26.2ten thousand people‧Previous value26.0ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(9month17Day and Week)‧Previous value26.075ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(9month10Day and Week)‧forecast214.3ten thousand people‧Previous value214.3ten thousand people
21：00 U.S.A7Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Monthly rate of housing prices‧Previous value+0.2%
21：00 U.S.A7Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Annual rate of housing prices‧Previous value+5.6%
22：00 eurozone9Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index‧Predict negative8.2‧Negative front value8.5
22：00 U.S.A8Annual sales rate of monthly completed houses‧forecast54510000 households‧Previous value53910000 households
22：00 U.S.A8月成屋销售月率‧forecast+1.1%‧Previous value-3.2%
22：00 U.S.A8Monthly leading indicator monthly rate‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value+0.4%



News of the Week

U.S.A9monthNAHBThe housing market index is65

美联储维持利率不变，暗示年底前会升息一次


9month21day
LondongoldMorning order price:1319.60
London gold afternoon fixing price:1326.10



Today's Introduction

美联储维持利率不变，暗示年底前会升息一次

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)周三维持利率不变，但强烈暗示仍可能在年底前收紧货币政策，因就业市场进一步改善。美联储主席耶伦在最新的政策声明发布后称，他们认为升息的理据增强，但决定暂时观望一段时间；如果就业市场继续改善，且未出现任何 - 新的重大风险，她预计年内会升息一次。另外，根据与声明一道发布的预估中值显示，决策者将今年升息次数预期从之前的两次下调至一次。在17位决策者中，有三位表示利率应在今年剩余时间保持不变。联储还预计，明年和2018年升息的幅度会小于之前的预期，并将长期利率预估从3.0%Down to2.9%。从市场表现来看，投资者对下次升息时机的预期并未出现大的改变。美国联邦基金利率走势暗示，投资者仍预计，12月升息的机率略高于50%，11月升息的可能性基本为零。



XAU London Gold - 守稳100MA，上探趋向线阻力

The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustWednesday's increase in gold holdings0.6%to944.39Tons.

Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)周三维持利率不变 ，但强烈暗示仍可能在年底前收紧货币政策，因就业市场进一步改善；不过，美联储亦放缓未来升息步伐，美元因此下跌，而大宗商品价格则普遍获见提振，金价一度升见至美元。

技术图表所见，金价再次守住100天平均线，在未有破位下，周三大幅上涨，目前有机会探试上方的下降趋向线阻力位于1349，若然这一道历时三个多月的下降趋向线破位，则有望金价将见开展新一轮升势，延伸目标预估为1359and1373To the next level1387美元。下方较近支持预估在1329and1321，关键仍会聚焦于100Balance moving average position1306。

London Gold9month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1329 – 1351
Resistance level:1359– 1373 – 1387
Support bit:1321 – 1311 – 1300

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton
9month9Day - 939.94ton
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year9month7day)

Global:32924.2ton (120.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1828.6ton (+5.3ton)
Russia(7)：1506.0ton (+7.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 呈双底上行

伦敦白银方面，在八月下旬及上周，银价亦出现两趟盘底走势，随后则见大幅反弹，现时图表上已呈现一组双底型态，颈线将参考9month7Monthly high20.13美元，可视为一线关键阻力，破位将料会延伸涨势，目标则会看至20.60and21.40美元。支持位则回看19.50and19.20Further, we will see that18.60USD100天平均线位置。

London Silver9month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:19.50 – 20.30
Resistance level:20.60 – 21.40
Support bit:19.20 – 18.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton
9month2Day - 11184.37ton
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton
9month9Day - 11281.84ton
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton
9month21Day - 11305.47ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

美元兑一篮子货币周三续跌，此前Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)维持货币政策不变 ，并预计未来数年升息力度将减弱。美联储强烈暗示仍可能在年底前收紧货币政策，因就业市场进一步改善。它还表示，近几个月美国经济活动加速，就业增长“稳健”。但据与声明一道发布的预估中值显示，决策者将今年升息次数预期从之前的两次下调至一次，还预计明年和2018年升息的幅度会小于之前的预期。根据CME GroupofFedWatch，交易员预计12月升息的可能性在声明发表后小幅上涨，从周二的59.2%Up to59.3%。

欧元兑美元走势，相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，预示欧元下跌压力弱化。短线走势仍要视乎250Balance moving average1.11水平能否守稳，若仍可再度守稳，才可望欧元继续自七月来的反扑行情。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考。反之，若向下失守250天线，将加剧欧元弱势，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09upper.

Focus:
Thursday: France9Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧eurozone9Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index

Related news
Germany8monthPPIDecline compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year1.6%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1160 – 1.1100 – 1.1000



JPY yen - 探试三角底部

美元兑日圆周四跌至近四周低位，之前美国联邦储备理事会(FED)维持货币政策不变，预计未来数年加息步伐会更加缓慢。美联储强烈暗示仍可能在年底前收紧货币政策，但决策者将今年升息次数预期从之前的两次下调至一次，且预计明年和2018年升息的幅度会小于之前的预期。另一边厢，围绕日本央行调整政策是否足以激发通胀的疑虑，对日圆产生支撑。日本央行周三大幅调整货币政策框架，将长期收益率目标加入到大规模的资产购买计划当中。日本央行维持对金融机构在央行的活期账户实施负0.1%的利率，但放弃基础货币目标，改为采用“控制收益率曲线”，据此央行将买进长期公债以使得10年期公债收益率保持在当前的零水准附近。投资者怀疑日本央行是否有能力通过新举措推升通胀。

技术走势而言，图表上可见到汇价正陷入一组大型三角的末端区域，上方顶部见于103.50，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average104.60To the extent that107.50水平。三角底部99.75则为关键支持参考，需慎防破位将驱使汇价进入新一轮下跌行情，下一级关注6月份守住的99To the extent that100Monthly average line96.80Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Related news
日本央行维持利率水平在负0.1%unchanged
日本央行放弃基础货币目标，改为以长期利率为目标
日本央行承诺将10年期公债收益率维持在零附近
央行表示将允许通胀率超过2%
stayQQE的基础上，再引入收益率曲线目标

Japan8月出口同比下降9.6%
Japan8月进口下降17.3%
Japan8月贸易收支转为逆差187Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 103.50* – 104.60 – 107.50
support 99.75* – 99.00 – 96.80



GBP pound - 美元维持走稳，关注联储决议

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元在八月份处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，将视为目前重要支撑依据，在上周尚见险守着，但本周料英镑仍会继续探低，较大支持则会参考1.29To the extent that8Monthly low1.2863. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average1.3165and1.3250水平，下一级料为1.33。

Focus:
Wednesday: UK8Monthly net borrowing from public sector(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)
Thursday: UK9monthCBITotal industrial order difference

Related news
新任央行委员桑德斯：英国经济将会放缓，但程度小于预期

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3165 – 1.3250 – 1.3300
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2900 – 1.2863



CHF Swiss franc - 守稳0.95brace

美元兑瑞郎上周处于区间横盘，央行利率不变的决议，未有为汇价带来重大冲击。图表指针所见，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数自超卖区域回升，预料汇价仍见进一步上升的动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
Switzerland8The monthly trade surplus has expanded to30.25Billion Swiss francs

The Swiss government expects2016yearGDPThe increase is1.5%(此前预计为1.4%)
The Swiss government expects2017yearGDPThe increase is1.8%(此前预计为1.8%)
The Swiss government expects2016年通胀率为负0.4%(此前预计为负0.4%)
The Swiss government expects2017The annual inflation rate is0.3%(此前预计为0.3%)

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - hold100MAbrace

澳洲央行总裁洛威周四在其上任后的首次公开讲话中对经济给出乐观评估，称今年两次降息、以及汇率贬值和大宗商品价格持稳，均支撑经济成长。洛威在议会经济委员会发表这番讲话，不过他预计通胀将在一段时间维持疲弱，但之后随着就业市场形势好转，通胀将逐步上升。澳洲央行总裁每年需赴议会经济委员会接受质询两次，回答关于经济及货币政策的问题。洛威职涯服务于央行，刚从担任10年之久的前任总裁史蒂文斯手上接下职位。本周稍早，澳洲央行在9月会议记录中暗示利率前景稳定。不过，由于消费者物价低于央行的2-3%目标，决策者担心低通胀的杀伤力可能渗透至薪资，令通胀预期受到压抑。期货市场调降对今年再度降息的预期，利率期货暗示，圣诞节之前降息机率从本周稍早时的逾30%下滑到24%。澳元兑美元在洛威演说后扩大涨幅，升见至0.7650Horizontal above.

图表走势分析，澳元上周持稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7480水平。预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。较近阻力先见于0.7760；0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。

Related news
会议记录：利率前景呈现平稳，因经济平缓前行

央行总裁称降息及澳元贬值支撑经济，通胀暂时料疲弱

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7480* – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - Avoidance sentiment suppresses the New Zealand dollar

The Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate on Thursday2.0%不变，但重申将需进一步放宽政策。纽西兰央行总裁惠勒在声明中称，货币政策将保持宽松。目前的预估和假设显示，需要进一步放宽政策，以确保未来通胀率回到目标区间的中段。央行的目标是把年通胀率控制在1-3%之间，而目前为0.4%。央行公布决议后，纽元兑美元回跌，一度彽见0.7316。

纽西兰央行周四举行政策会议，料将维持利率在2.0%不变。技术走势而言，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.77，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，进一步可参考250Weekly moving average0.7750To the extent that0.78关口；较近阻力可参考月初未能突破的0.75水平。下方支撑预估在通道底部0.7210，较大支撑料为0.7160and0.70Gateway.

Related news
纽西兰央行维持利率不变，但为进一步宽松敞开大门

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7700 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7210 – 0.7160 – 0.7000



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Canada7Monthly wholesale trade rate

Related news
央行总裁称低利率将维持更长时间，政府支出将提振经济

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

曾经拥有的不要忘记；不能得到的更要珍惜；属于自己的不要放弃；已经失去的留作回忆。我刚来~~~嘿嘿~~