Crossing the Sea 2016year9month19day

Crossing the Sea 2016year9month19day

Focus this week:
9month19day(Monday)
United States9Monthly Residential Builders Association(NAHB)Housing market index

9month20day(Tuesday)
U.S.A8Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A8Monthly housing construction starts

9month21day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index
Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate

9month22day(Thursday)
美联储联邦基金利率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A7Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)房屋价格
U.S.A8Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A8Monthly leading indicator monthly rate



9month16day
LondongoldMorning order price:1314.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1308.35



Important economic data released today:
09：30 China8month70Monthly Report on Residential Sales Prices in Major and Medium sized Cities  
09：30 China8月银行结售汇数据  
09：30 China8月银行涉外代客收付款数据  
16：00 eurozone7Monthly unadjusted current account‧Previous value376Yiyi surplus
16：00 eurozone7Seasonal adjustment of current accounts during menstruation‧Previous value282Yiyi surplus
16：00 eurozone7Monthly direct investment/Net inflow of securities investment‧Previous value214Billion
22：00 United States9Monthly Residential Builders Association(NAHB)Housing market index‧forecast60‧Previous value60



XAU London Gold - 金价继续承压，受制联储加息预期

上周整体汇市处于窄幅区间波动，在本周美联储和日本央行政策会议之前，市场以观望为主。美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)Will be on9month20-21日开会，总裁耶伦将在周三召开记者会 。上周初美联储理事布雷纳德的表态以及疲弱的经济数据，让人基本笃定美联储本周不会升息。在美联储进入会前缄默期的最后一天，颇具影响力的美联储理事布雷纳德上周初表示，联储应避免过快去除对美国经济的支持。布雷纳德认为，美国就业市场尚未发挥出全部潜能，这意味着“预防性收紧政策的理由不那么充分。她是联储决策委员会中六名拥有固定投票权的成员之一。数据方面，上周五数据显示，美国8月消费者物价涨幅超过预期，因医疗保健成本创32年半最大涨幅。数据表明通胀稳步上涨，可能促使美联储今年加息，数据公布后，美元上涨。劳工部公布，8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Up from the previous month0.2%Increase compared to the same period last year1.1%。7月分别为持平和增长0.8%. Deducting the core of food and energyCPIGrowth compared to the previous month0.3%, for2月来最大增幅，7Monthly growth0.1%。分析师原本预计8monthCPIincrease0.1%, CoreCPIincrease0.2%。8Monthly CoreCPIYear-on-year growth2.3%，7Monthly growth2.2%。周五公布的另一份数据显示，9月初消费者信心持稳，表明零售销售未来数月可望反弹。

美元指数近两个月来陷于一三角区间游走，上方顶部在95.65, visible at the bottom below94.65，虽然周四数据疲弱美指一度回跌，但周五已重新攀并高见至96.11，初步突破了三角顶部，但同时亦暂见受限于200天平均线，预料延伸波幅可参考七月份高位97.57。

伦敦黄金方面，市场风险偏好改善，以及黄金的技术面疲势，使得上周金价反复下试，周五跌见至1306水平。技术图表所见， 7month6Daily high1374.91，8month2Daily high1367.33, to the extent that9month7月高位则在1352.65美元，明显可见，三个顶部正逐步下移，需慎防若此轮跌势失守1300美元关口，则见更大的下调压力，延伸跌幅料会看至1287and1266水平，为六月至七月累积升幅50%and61.8%的技术回调水平。另一方面，若金价仍可维持在1310上方，则金价仍可望继续持稳，上方阻力见于50Balance moving average1333，其后较大挑战来自位于1350美元的下降趋向线，破位延伸目标预估在1364Horizontal.

London Gold9month19 – 23Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1324 – 1342 – 1368 – 1386
Support bit:1296 – 1288 – 1262 – 1234

London Gold9month19day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1298 – 1324
Resistance level:1336 – 1345
Support bit:1287 – 1276

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton
9month9Day - 939.94ton
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year8month4day)

Global:32803.5ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1823.3ton
Russia(7)：1498.7ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Repeated trends

伦敦白银方面，预料白银短期维持反复，阻力可参考19.20and19.60Further, we will see that20.10美元。至于下方支持预估在18.50and18.30The next level material is17.80USD.

London Silver9month19 – 23Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:19.20 – 19.60 – 20.20 – 20.70
Support bit:18.40 – 18.10 – 17.50 – 16.90

London Silver9month19day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.40 – 19.30
Resistance level:19.60 – 20.00
Support bit:18.00 – 17.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month22Day - 11159.74ton
8month23Day - 11159.74ton
8month24Day - 11159.74ton
8month25Day - 11100.66ton
8month26Day - 11100.66ton
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton
9month2Day - 11184.37ton
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton
9month9Day - 11281.84ton
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

根据路透计算和美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)周五公布的数据，汇市投机客在前一周为7月底首次增持对美元的多头押注后，9month13日止当周再次减持美元凈多仓。截至9month13During the current week, the net long position in the US dollar decreased to71.3亿美元，此前一周为91亿美元。交易商降低对美国联邦储备理事会(FED)近期升息的预期。美国服务业数据疲软及美联储理事布雷纳德讲话促使投资者认为，美联储在9month20-21日的会议上不大可能升息，促使投机客减持美元多仓。

图表走势分析，相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超买区域回落，预示欧元或仍见下跌压力，当前有机会向下探试延伸自七月下旬的上升趋向线支撑于1.1160，下一级则为250Balance moving average1.11，上周汇价寻底亦见止步于此区，若一并跌破，将加剧欧元弱势，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09上方。短线走势仍要视乎250天平均线能否守稳，若仍可再度守稳，才可望欧元继续自七月来的反扑行情。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考。

Focus:
Monday: Eurozone7Monthly current account‧direct investment/Net inflow of securities investment
Tuesday: Germany8Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)
Thursday: France9Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧eurozone9Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1160 – 1.1100 – 1.1000



JPY yen - 政策寛松预期重燃，日圆重新回弱

日本央行将在周二和周三开会，评估其超宽松货币政策。了解日本央行想法的消息人士表示，日本央行下周检讨政策时，将考虑把主要政策目标由基础货币转至利率，使负利率成为未来货币宽松的核心。这将暗示日本央行迄今规模巨大的经济刺激举措已接近其极限。

美元兑日圆自周三触及103.34后则告辗转回落，周五一度跌见至102下方水平。疲弱的美国零售销售数据压低了关于美联储本周升息的预期，而关于日本央行行动将打压日圆的预期似乎也不高。鉴于日本央行自年初以来屡次让市场失望，存在日圆兑其它主要货币稍稍走强的风险。美联储和日本央行都将在本周三公布政策决议。

技术走势而言，图表上可见到汇价陷入一组大型三角区间，上方顶部见于103.80，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average104.70To the extent that107.50水平。支持位则要留意101.40and100水平，下一级关注6月份守住的99Horizontal.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan8Monthly trade balance‧Annual export rate‧Annual import rate‧日本央行利率决定
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 103.80* – 104.80 – 107.50
support 101.40 – 100.00 – 99.00



GBP pound - 美元维持走稳，关注联储决议

美元兑一篮子货币上周五触及逾两周高位，此前美国通胀数据提振美国联邦储备理事会(FED)12月升息预期，美元兑英镑触及一个月高位，因担心英国脱欧带来的影响。美国劳工部称，上月消费者物价指数(CPI)increase0.2%，在截至8Of12Within months,CPIincrease1.1%，数据超过路透调查的分析师的预估。根据CME GroupofFedWatch，交易员将对下周会议升息的押注从12%小幅提高至15%, for12月升息的押注从略高于47%提高至近52%。

英镑兑美元触及一个月低位1.2992，此前彭博援引未具名官员称，英国财政大臣夏文达(Philip Hammond)“准备接受”英国可能不得不放弃欧盟单一市场成员地位的现 实。夏文达曾在7月中称，作为6month23日公投脱欧的后果，英国将会离开欧盟单一市场。

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元在八月份处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，将视为目前重要支撑依据，在上周已见初步失守的情况下，本周料英镑仍会继续探低，较大支持则会参考1.29To the extent that8Monthly low1.2863. The upper resistance is seen in50Balance moving average1.3165and1.3250水平，下一级料为1.33。

Focus:
Wednesday: UK8Monthly net borrowing from public sector(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)
Thursday: UK9monthCBITotal industrial order difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3165 – 1.3250 – 1.3300
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2900 – 1.2863



CHF Swiss franc - 守稳0.95brace

瑞士央行上周维持扩张性货币政策不变，同时维持负利率在纪录低点，尽管外界对于该政策损及银行和养老金的批评声浪不断加剧。央行维持三个月伦敦银行间拆放款利率(Libor)The target interval is negative 1.25%To negative 0.25%不变，与此同时还将活期存款利率维持在负 0.75%不变。央行在声明中称瑞郎汇率仍被严重高估，负利率及瑞士央行干预foreign exchange市场的意愿将会降低瑞郎投资吸引力，从而缓解瑞郎升值压力。

美元兑瑞郎上周处于区间横盘，央行利率不变的决议，未有为汇价带来重大冲击。图表指针所见，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数自超卖区域回升，预料汇价仍见进一步上升的动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
9month20day(two)Switzerland8Monthly trade balance        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 澳元探试100MAbrace

图表走势分析，澳元上周持稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7480水平。预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。较近阻力先见于0.7570and0.7760；0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。

Focus:
9month20day(two)：澳洲第二季房屋价格指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7570 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7480* – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - Avoidance sentiment suppresses the New Zealand dollar

技术走势而言，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.7660，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，进一步可参考250Weekly moving average0.7750To the extent that0.78关口；较近阻力可参考上周未能突破的0.75水平。下方支撑预估在通道底部0.7210，较大支撑料为0.7160and0.70Gateway.

Focus:
9month21day(three): New Zealand8月移民/短期访问者人数凈变化‧永久性/长期移民人数凈变化
9month22day(four)：纽西兰央行利率决定

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7660 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7210 – 0.7160 – 0.7000



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
9month21day(three): Canada7Monthly wholesale trade rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500







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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

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