Crossing the Sea 2016year9month9day

View All · Published on 2016-9-9 18:11:36

Register now, make more friends, enjoy more functions, and let you play in the community easily.

You need Sign in Can be downloaded or viewed without an account?Register Now

x

Crossing the Sea 2016year9month9day

Focus this week:
9month9day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A7Monthly retail sales rate

9month13day(Tuesday)
United States8monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index

9month14day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly federal budget

9month14day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly imports‧出口物价月率
U.S.A9Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

9month15day(Thursday)
美国第二季流动帐平衡
U.S.A9New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A9Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A8monthPPI
U.S.A8Monthly retail sales rate
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A8Monthly industrial production rate‧Capacity utilization rate
U.S.A8Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A7Monthly commercial inventory rate

9month16day(Friday)
U.S.A8monthCPI
U.S.A8Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A9月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值
U.S.A8Cleveland Federal ReserveCPI

9month17day(Saturday)
U.S.A7Monthly overall capital flow
U.S.A7Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds

Important economic data released today:
20：15 Canada8Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast19.0010000 households‧Previous value19.8410000 households
20：30 Canada8Monthly job changes‧Forecast increase1.50Ten thousand‧Previous value decrease3.12Ten thousand
20：30 Canada8Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast6.9%‧Previous value6.9%
20：30 Canada8Monthly employment participation rate‧Previous value65.40%
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly wholesale inventory rate‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Front value remains unchanged
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+1.9%

News of the Week

G20会议：承诺协调宏观经济政策促增长，但未见实质举措
沙特与俄罗斯签署石油合作协议，未来可能会限产

旧金山联储总裁呼吁升息，建议提高通胀目标

9month8day
LondongoldMorning order price:1348.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1343.40

Today's Introduction

朝鲜证实实施了第五次核试验

朝鲜周五宣布实施了第五次核试验。地震监测机构几小时前检测到该国核试验场地附近发生爆炸。朝鲜国家电视台报导称，朝鲜目前有能力把核弹头安装到弹道火箭上。报导还称，核试验中未出现核物质泄露情况，也没有对环境造成影响。

XAU London Gold - 升势挑战下降趋向线

技术图表所见，目前短期较近支撑预估在1330and1323美元，下一级为1310美元。参考7month6Daily high1374.91and8month2Daily high1367.33，为双顶型态的两个顶部，位于1310的颈线位置在上周屡遭考验。另一方面，若金价仍可维持在1310上方，配合相对强弱指标及随机指数已呈回升，料金价可出现一段反扑，先会挑战下降趋向线1354，破位延伸目标预估在1369and1375For materials with high resistance1385Horizontal.

London Gold9month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1330 – 1341
Resistance level:1355 – 1369
Support bit:1323 – 1310

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month8Day - 973.80ton
8month9Day - 972.62ton
8month10Day - 972.62ton
8month11Day - 972.32ton
8month12Day - 960.45ton
8month15Day - 960.45ton
8month16Day - 962.23ton
8month17Day - 957.78ton
8month18Day - 955.99ton
8month19Day - 955.99ton
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton
9month2Day - 937.89ton
9month5Day - 937.89ton
9month6Day - 952.14ton
9month7Day - 951.81ton
9month8Day - 950.62ton

10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year8month4day)

Global:32803.5ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1823.3ton
Russia(7)：1498.7ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton

XAG London Silver - 突破趋向线

伦敦白银方面，银价本周走势已见突破下降趋向线，预料白银短期维持反扑动能，阻力可参考20.10and20.60Further, we will see that21.40美元。至于下方支持预估在19.20and18.70The next level material is18.20USD.

London Silver9month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:19.20 – 20.10
Resistance level:20.60 – 21.40
Support bit:18.70 – 18.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month15Day - 10941.12ton
8month16Day - 10941.12ton
8month17Day - 10988.39ton
8month18Day - 11056.34ton
8month19Day - 11056.34ton
8month22Day - 11159.74ton
8month23Day - 11159.74ton
8month24Day - 11159.74ton
8month25Day - 11100.66ton
8month26Day - 11100.66ton
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton
9month2Day - 11184.37ton
9month5Day - 11184.37ton
9month6Day - 11246.40ton
9month7Day - 11281.84ton
9month8Day - 11281.84ton

EUR euro - 央行议息不变，欧元走势持稳

欧洲央行周四维持利率在纪录低位不变，该央行总裁德拉吉在会后记者会上表示，央行将评估各种政策选项，以确保其史无前例的印钞计划能顺利落实。不过，央行未调整资产购买计划时限，到期日仍在3月底。这令投资者失望，这些投资者原本预计央行会立即采取措施，包括延长或扩大当前计划的规模，或至少更明确地暗示未来将采取行动。德拉吉说道会上没有讨论延长资产购买计划这一议题，这令市场将此次会议的基调解读为鹰派。

欧元兑美元走势，欧元过去两周持续滑落，上周险守着250Balance moving average, currently250The antenna is in1.11水平，估计若跌破此区将加剧欧元弱势，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09上方；较近支持可参考25Balance moving average1.1210。相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域，不排除欧元短期或先作整固。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考，重要阻力指向1.15Horizontal.

Focus:
9month13day(two): Germany8monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value‧Italy7Monthly industrial production‧Germany9monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWCurrent situation index‧欧元区第二季就业人口
9month14day(three): France8monthHICPFinal value‧Italy8monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone7Monthly industrial production
9month15day(four): Eurozone7Monthly trade balance‧eurozone8monthHICPFinal value‧扣除食品和能源HICPFinal value‧Germany9Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France9Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy9Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
9month16day(five): Italy7Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧Annual labor cost rate for the second quarter of the Eurozone‧薪资年率

Related news
Germany7Monthly industrial orders increased compared to the previous month0.2%
France7月经季节调整贸易逆差扩大至45100 million euros
Germany7月工业生产意外按月下滑1.5%，创近两年最大跌幅
Spain7月工业生产较上年同期增长0.3%，增速创2014year12月以来最慢
法国截至7月底的年内预算赤字为808.45100 million euros
France7Monthly industrial production has declined compared to the previous month0.6%
France7月制造业产出较前月下降0.3%
Germany7月出口意外下降2.6%，导致贸易顺差收窄至194100 million euros

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1210 – 1.1100 – 1.1000

JPY yen - 美元探顶失败

日本央行总裁黑田东彦周五与首相安倍晋三会面，就本月稍晚央行将对货币政策进行的全面评估交换看法，但黑田拒绝透露会谈细节。黑田称，未与安倍讨论购买外币债券。安倍的一位顾问支持购买外币债券的观点。

美元兑日圆周五下滑，脱离周四所及高点102.59；亦有分析指，有关朝鲜核试验的报导可能对日圆构成支撑。在市场紧张时，低收益的融资货币日圆通常因空头回补而上涨。朝鲜周五宣布实施了第五次核试验，美国、欧洲和中国的相关机构报告称记录到震动。The United States Geological Survey(USGS) 和欧洲机构测量到的震级为5.3级。市场焦点在于美联储是否将很快升息，以及日本央行是否会扩大货币刺激政策规模。美日两国央行都将在9month20-21日召开政策会议。一周前令人失望的美国非农就业数据，以及周二弱于预估的服务业调查，促使部分投资者削减对美联储最快在本月升息的押注，尽管多名联储官员暗示已接近升息时机。

技术走势而言，图表上可见到汇价陷入另一组大型三角区间，上方顶部见于104.15，需要可突破此区，汇价才可望进入另一浪升势，进一步目标可看至100Balance moving average105.10To the extent that108水平。支持位则要留意101and100水平，下一级关注6月份守住的99Horizontal.

Focus:
9month12day(one): Japan8Monthly Commercial Price Index‧Japan7Monthly machinery orders
9month13day(two)：日本第三季商业调查指数
9month14day(three): Japan7Monthly industrial production revision‧Capacity utilization index monthly rate
9month15day(four) : Japan9月路透短观制造业信心指数‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks
9month16day(five): Japan9Monthly Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数(PCSI)

Related news
副总裁中曾宏：不排除进一步下调负利率
央行总裁与首相会面，讨论本月稍晚的货币政策全面评估

Japan Season 2GDP环比年率修正为成长0.7%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 104.15* – 105.10 – 108.00
support 101.00 – 100.00 – 99.00

GBP pound - 升破趋向线，技术面维持强势

周三欧洲时段公布的官方资料显示，英国7月工业产出好于预期，但是英国7月制造业产出持续下降，为2015year7月以来最大降幅。数据公布后，英镑兑美元冲高至1.3440后快速回落，最低触及1.3357。数据显示，英国7月工业产出月率上升0.1%,好于预期，预测值下降0.3%; Britain7月制造业产出月率下降0.9%，不及预期的下降0.4%。工业产出表现靓丽但制造业产出欠佳，表明工业产出的增长主要是由矿业产出的增长导致，制造业运营状况在7月进一步恶化，有可能是因脱欧冲击所导致，料将令市场对脱欧冲击的忧虑又再度升温，增大英国央行加码宽松的压力，施压英镑。市场人士目前普遍预期英国央行下周四料将会按兵不动，直到11月会议才会降息，以缓冲英国公投脱欧可能带来的冲击。

英镑兑美元汇价目前较英国退欧公投几天后触及的略低于1.28USD31年低位高逾4%。图表走势所见，英镑兑美元上月处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，在未有跌破下，在近期渐见起色；现阶段已见汇价突破50天平均线及下降趋向线，料可望英镑重新踏上升轨，进一步目标可看至1.3480and1.3580水平。较近支持则回看1.3280and25Balance moving average1.3135Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: UK7月建筑业产出‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡
9month13day(two): UK8monthCPI‧coreCPI‧RPI‧扣除抵押贷款的RPI&#8231PIInput price&#8231PIOutput price&#8231PI核心产出物价
9month14day(three): UK8Number of monthly claims for unemployment benefits‧by7According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧平均每周薪资所得年率
9month15day(four): UK8Monthly retail sales‧扣除能源的零售销售月率‧britain9Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧britain9Monthly central bank interest rate decision‧Scale of quantitative easing‧MPCVoting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)

Related news
BRC: UK8月同店零售销售较上年同期下滑0.9%
BRC: UK8月零售支出较上年同期下滑0.3%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3480 – 1.3580
support 1.3280 – 1.3135 – 1.3050 – 1.3000

CHF Swiss franc - 守稳0.95brace

瑞士联邦政府经济事务秘书处(SECO)Announced on Friday, Switzerland8月经季节调整失业率为3.4%，7Month is3.3%；8月未经季节调整失业率为3.2%，7Month is3.1%。

图表指针所见，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数自上月底持续回落，同时美元兑瑞郎从9month1Daily high0.9884滑落至目前处于0.97下方，预料汇价仍见下调压力，下方支持仍会瞩目于0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway.

Related news
瑞士第二季实质GDPGrowth compared to the previous quarter0.6%Increase compared to the same period last year2.0%
Switzerland8monthCPIDecline compared to the previous month0.1%，较上年同期亦下降0.1%
Switzerland8The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is3.4%
Switzerland8月未经季节调整失业率为3.2%

Focus:
9month13day(two)Switzerland8Monthly Producer/Import prices
9month14day(three)Switzerland9monthZEWInvestor confidence index
9month15day(four)：瑞士第三季三个月LIBOR利率目标区间

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440

AUD AUD - 美元续承压，澳元冲击0.78Gateway

本周澳元上涨近1%，周四涨至0.7732，得益于美国数据疲软和澳洲上个季度经济创下四年来最快增速。澳元今年已经累计上涨约5%。

图表走势分析，澳元上周持稳于100天平均线上方，目前100The antenna is in0.7490水平。预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380水平。然而，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦呈回升状态，澳元在经历两周多的跌势，短期可望维持回稳，较近阻力先见于0.7760； 0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口；进一步目标预计为0.8165, for50%的反弹水准。

Related news
澳洲央行维持利率1.5%不变，未暗示未来是否进一步降息

澳洲第二季经季节调整经常帐赤字为155.4AUD 100 million
Australia Season 2GDPGrowth compared to the previous quarter0.5%
澳元第二季GDP较上年同期增幅升至3.3%, for2012年以来最高
Australia7月经季调商品/服务贸易收支为逆差24.1AUD 100 million
Australia7月经季调商品/服务出口较前月增加3%，进口持平

Focus:
9month13day(two): Australia8monthNAB商业状况指数‧NABBusiness confidence index
9month14day(three): Australia9Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
9month15day(four): Australia8Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate
9month16day(five): Australia9Monthly Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数(PCSI)

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000 – 0.8165
support 0.7490 – 0.7450 – 0.7380

NZD New Zealand dollars - 创年内高位

纽元兑美元周五升至0.74水平上方。本周纽元已累计上涨1.5%，因美元下滑和全球乳品价格上涨。长线投资者开始关注纽西兰央行何时对汇率采取行动，以及美联储是否会在9月加息。

从技术上看，历时半年的上升通道顶部位于0.7640，可望视为纽元上行的一个重要目标，进一步可参考250Weekly moving average0.7750To the extent that0.78关口。下方支撑预估在0.74and25Balance moving average0.7260Horizontal.

Related news
纽西兰第二季经季节调整批发销售较前季增长1.7%；实质趸售销售同比增长4%

Focus:
9month13day(two): New Zealand8Monthly Food Price Index
9month14day(three)：纽西兰第二季流动帐平衡
9month15day(four): New Zealand8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI‧New Zealand Season 2GDP
9month16day(five): New Zealand8月公债海外持有比例

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7640 – 0.7750 – 0.7800
support 0.7400 – 0.7260

CAD Cad - 央行维持利率不变，预计经济下半年反弹

美元兑加元方面，随着油价回升，加元亦复见强势，近一周美元兑加元连袂走跌，周三跌见至1.2818。图表走势所见，当前的临界点为1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458。然而，亦需留意相对强弱指及随机指数已陷入超卖区域，需慎防美元短线有回弹倾向。预估阻力在1.2975and1.3150Greater resistance can be seen in200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal.

Focus:
9month9day(five): Canada8Monthly housing construction annual rate‧就业岗位变动‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate
9month14day(three): Canada9Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
9month16day(five): Canada7Monthly Manufacturing Sales

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2975 – 1.3150 – 1.3270
support 1.2650* – 1.2500 – 1.2458

QR Code http://app.mw801.com

Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)