Crossing the Sea 2016year9month5day

纵Henghuihai 2016year9month5day

Focus this week:
9month6day(Tuesday)
U.S.A8monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A8Monthly employment trend index
U.S.A8monthISMNon manufacturing index

9month7day(Wednesday)
U.S.A7monthJOLTS职位空缺数

9month8day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7Monthly Consumer Credit

9month9day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A7Monthly retail sales rate



Important economic data released today:
08：00 Japan7Monthly overtime pay‧Previous value-0.1%
08：30 Australia8monthMIInflation indicator monthly rate
09：30 澳洲第二季商业库存‧Previous value+0.4%
09：30 澳洲第二季商业总获利‧Previous value-4.7%
09：30 澳洲第二季商业税前获利‧Previous value-15.1%
09：30 Australia8monthANZNewspaper job advertisement‧Previous value-12.6%
09：30 Australia8monthANZOnline recruitment advertisement‧Previous value-0.7%
09：45 China8月财新服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)
15：45 Italy8monthMarkit/ADACICIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value52.0
15：50 France8monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value52.0
15：50 France8monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value51.6
15：55 Germany8monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧forecast53.3‧Previous value53.3
15：55 Germany8monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧forecast54.4‧Previous value54.4
16：00 eurozone8monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast53.1‧Previous value53.1
16：00 eurozone8monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast53.3‧Previous value53.3
16：30 britain8monthMarkit/CIPSCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value47.4
16：30 eurozone9monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧Previous value4.2
17：00 eurozone7Monthly retail sales rate‧Front value remains unchanged
17：00 eurozone7Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value+1.6%



XAU Londongold - 非农数据弱化加息预期，金银乘势反扑

美元上周整体呈上涨，美元指数周三触及三周高点96.26，金价则见承压下行，至周四一度低见1301.91美元。美元在升息讯号变强之下上周早段表现良好，不过越接近周五，美元走势越趋于保守，主因市场人士正关注美国8月非农就业资料，以判断美国就业市场强劲程度是否足以支持美联储紧缩货币政策的立场。而此前，因为美联储耶伦以及其它官员等纷纷发表鹰派讲话，亦对美元构成支撑。周五美国劳工部公布美国8Growth of non-agricultural employment population after seasonal adjustment15.1万人，远低于预期18Ten thousand people;8The monthly unemployment rate is4.9%, higher than expected4.8%。资料表现差强人意，数据公布后，美元一度下挫，但其后扳回跌幅，尾盘报95.88；金价则升见全周高位1328.73，尾盘报1324.65美元。展望本周，将有多家央行将举行政策会议，包括澳洲央行、欧洲央行，加拿大等央行。杰克森霍尔会议之后，美联储官员极力酝酿美国升息氛围，其它央行有何对策将受关注。

As seen in the technical chart,8月下旬金价跌破一组三角型态，中短期平均线呈现利淡交叉，使得技术面显著弱化，目前短期较近支撑预估在1300美元关口。参考7month6Daily high1374.91and8month2Daily high1367.33，为双顶型态的两个顶部，位于1310的颈线位置在本周屡遭考验，需留意若在本周仍见金价重新回落此区下方，将很大机会继续以下行发展，以最近顶部的幅度57美元计算，中期目标可至1253美元。另外，由5月底低位1199.60to7month6Daily high1374.91的累积涨幅计算，其50%and61.8%的回调目标为1287and1267美元。另一方面，若金价仍可维持在1310上方，配合相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷超卖区域，料金价可出现一段整固，阻力预估在1330and1338For materials with high resistance1358Horizontal.

London Gold9month5day – 9month9Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1339 – 1348 – 1361 – 1375
Support bit:1319 – 1310 – 1292 – 1268

London Gold9month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1321 – 1331
Resistance level:1342 – 1362
Support bit:1301 – 1282

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month1Day - 964.03ton
8month2Day - 969.97ton
8month3Day - 969.65ton
8month4Day - 973.21ton
8month5Day - 980.34ton
8month8Day - 973.80ton
8month9Day - 972.62ton
8month10Day - 972.62ton
8month11Day - 972.32ton
8month12Day - 960.45ton
8month15Day - 960.45ton
8month16Day - 962.23ton
8month17Day - 957.78ton
8month18Day - 955.99ton
8month19Day - 955.99ton
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year8month4day)

Global:32803.5ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1823.3ton
Russia(7)：1498.7ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 非农数据弱化加息预期，金银乘势反扑

伦敦白银方面，自前一周走势开始呈盘底阶段，最低见于上周一的18.36美元，但随后快速反弹而受阻19美元关口，至周五银价借着非农数据而强势反扑，升见两周高位19.44美元。预料白银短期下跌动能已为减弱，阻力可参考19.60and19.80Further, we will see that20.10美元。至于下方支持预估在19.00and100Balance moving average18.25USD.

London Silver9month5day – 9month9Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:20.00 – 20.30 – 20.80 – 21.40
Support bit:19.10 – 18.80 – 18.00 – 17.00

London Silver9month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:19.10 – 20.00
Resistance level:20.80 – 21.30
Support bit:18.40 – 17.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month8Day - 10941.12ton
8month9Day - 10941.12ton
8month10Day - 10941.12ton
8month11Day - 10941.12ton
8month12Day - 10941.12ton
8month15Day - 10941.12ton
8month16Day - 10941.12ton
8month17Day - 10988.39ton
8month18Day - 11056.34ton
8month19Day - 11056.34ton
8month22Day - 11159.74ton
8month23Day - 11159.74ton
8month24Day - 11159.74ton
8month25Day - 11100.66ton
8month26Day - 11100.66ton
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton



EUR euro - 非农数据稍逊，加息预期减弱

继杰克森霍尔央行年会后，美联储主席耶伦表示美国升息与否，取决于美国经济数据表现，市场上焦点即放在8月份美国就业报告身上。上周五晚美国劳工部公布8月份非农业就业岗位增加15.1万份，比预测18万减少3万份，而上月数值则由25.5万份上修至27.5万份；失业率保持在4.9 %不变，数据公布后美元指数一度下挫至95.19，其后扳回跌幅，尾盘报95.88。

欧元兑美元走势，近日欧元持续滑落，暂见险守着250Balance moving average, currently250The antenna is in1.11水平，估计若跌破此区将加剧欧元弱势，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09上方。相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域，不排除短期或先作整固。向上阻力则见于100antenna1.1215；另外，由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考，重要阻力指向1.15Horizontal.

Focus:
9month5day(one): Italy8monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧
France8monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧
Germany8monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧
eurozone8monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧
eurozone9monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone7Monthly retail sales
9month6day(two): Germany7Monthly industrial order rate‧Eurozone Q2GDP修订
9month7day(three): Germany7Monthly industrial production rate‧France7Monthly current account‧trade balance
9month8day(four)：法国第二季非农就业岗位季率修订‧Europe9Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate
9month9day(five): Germany7Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance‧France7Monthly budget balance‧工业生产月率        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1215 – 1.1345 – 1.1432
support 1.1100 – 1.1000 – 1.0900



JPY yen - 日本数据低迷，央行存放宽政策压力

图表走势所见，美元兑日圆上周大致在100关口附近上下徘徊，至周五才见显著波动，升见本周四的104。图表上可见到汇价已突破三角区间，亦可视为延伸自七月的下降趋向线，突破此区后，应可见汇价重新上扬，进一步可看至100Balance moving average105.60To the extent that108。支持位则回看103and101.60Horizontal.

Focus:
9month5day(one): Japan7Monthly overtime pay
9month7day(three): Japan8monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan7Monthly Simultaneous Indicator Monthly Rate‧Leading indicators
9month8day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan8月银行放款余额年率‧Japan7Monthly current account‧Japan Season 2GDP修订
9month9day(five): Japan8Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.60 – 108.00
support 103.00 – 101.60



GBP pound - Continuation of disputes and disputes

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元近月处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，下延目标将看至1.28and1.26Horizontal. The upper resistance material is50Balance moving average1.33，此区同时亦为下降趋向线位置，破位料可望英镑重新踏上升轨，目标可看至1.3370and1.3480Horizontal.

Focus:
9month5day(one): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI
9month6day(two): UK8monthBRC同店零售销售年率
9month7day(three): UK8monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by8Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index‧britain7Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output
9month8day(four): UK8月皇家测量师学会(RICS)Price difference
9month9day(five): UK7月建筑业产出‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3370 – 1.3480
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2800 – 1.2600



CHF Swiss franc - beautiful/瑞守稳0.95brace

上周汇价显著反弹，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，美元兑瑞郎或仍见上升动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9820and1.00关口。下方支持仍会瞩目于0.95水平，下一级关键在5month3Daily low0.9440。

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9820 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - Pay attention to the central bank's interest rate discussion

本周有澳洲央行开会，并将公布利率决定。澳洲央行8月降息至纪录低位，而且降息大门依旧敞开。但由于利差交易，澳元作为高收益资产，在降息环境下仍展现出韧性。

图表走势分析，由2014year7Monthly high0.9505to2016year1Monthly low0.6827，其累积跌幅的38.2%反弹幅度1023点，亦即为0.7850，相当接近今年4Monthly high0.7836。澳元随后展开一段〝V〞型走势，先是下滑至5month24Daily low0.7145，之后又重新反弹，延至上周高见0.7760，因此，向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口；进一步目标预计为0.8165, for50%的反弹水准。在短期走势则需留意，澳元上周触及高位后出现回落，并促使相对强弱指标及随机指数亦已呈回落状态，短线仍存在调整压力。关键支撑见于0.75，进一步调整幅度料会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380Horizontal.

Focus:
9month5day(one): Australia8monthMIInflation indicator monthly rate‧ANZNewspaper job advertisement‧ANZOnline recruitment advertisement‧澳洲第二季商业库存‧商业总获利‧商业税前获利
9month6day(two)：澳洲第二季流动帐平衡‧凈出口对GDP的贡献率‧Australia9Monthly central bank interest rate decision
9month7day(three): Australia Season 2GDP%
9month8day(four): Australia7月商品和服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
9month9day(five): Australia7Monthly housing financing‧Investment oriented housing financing

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7850 – 0.8000 – 0.8165
support 0.7500 – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽西兰央行总裁惠勒：无需很快连续降息

纽元兑美元方面，图表见相对强弱指标及随机数据回落，示意纽元可能正步入调整阶段，向下测试一短期上升趋向线于0.72水平，破位将确立回调走势；以自五月底起始的累积涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整目标将达至0.7095and0.7015Next level can be seen in0.6935。上方阻力预估在0.7350and100Monthly average line0.7460Horizontal, the key lies in0.75Horizontal.

Related news
纽西兰第二季贸易条件较前季下降2.1%

Focus:
9month7day(three)：纽西兰第二季制造业销售
9month9day(five): New Zealand8月电子卡零售销售

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7350 – 0.7460 – 0.7500
support 0.7200* – 0.7095 – 0.7015 – 0.6935



CAD Cad - The central bank negotiates interest rates

美元兑加元重返1.30水平，脱离前周五低位1.2818。图表走势所见，当前的临界点为1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458。然而，亦需留意相对强弱指及随机指数已出现回升，美元短线仍有回弹倾向。预估阻力在1.3150and1.32Greater resistance can be seen in200Balance moving average1.3280Horizontal.

Focus:
9month7day(three)Bank of Canada interest rate decision‧Canada8monthIvey PMI
9month8day(four): Canada7Monthly building permit rate‧新屋价格指数‧Capacity utilization rate in the second quarter of Canada
9month9day(five): Canada8Monthly housing construction annual rate‧就业岗位变动‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3150 – 1.3200 – 1.3280
support 1.2920 – 1.2760 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

曾经拥有的不要忘记；不能得到的更要珍惜；属于自己的不要放弃；已经失去的留作回忆。我刚来~~~嘿嘿~~