Crossing the Sea 2016year9month2day

Crossing the Sea 2016year9month2day

Focus this week:
9month2day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A7Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A8monthISM-纽约商业活动指数
U.S.A7Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A7Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

9month6day(Tuesday)
U.S.A8monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A8Monthly employment trend index
U.S.A8monthISMNon manufacturing index

9month7day(Wednesday)
U.S.A7monthJOLTS职位空缺数

9month8day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7Monthly Consumer Credit

9month9day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A7Monthly retail sales rate



Important economic data released today:
17：00 eurozone7Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.7%
17：00 eurozone7Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast-2.9%‧Previous value-3.1%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions‧Forecast increase18.0ten thousand people‧Previous value increase25.5ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly private employment positions‧Forecast increase17.8ten thousand people‧Previous value increase21.7ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly manufacturing employment positions‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value increase0.9ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A8月政府部门就业岗位‧Previous value increase3.8ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast4.8%‧Previous value4.9%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly average hourly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly and weekly average working hours‧forecast34.5‧Previous value34.5
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly labor force employment participation rate‧Previous value62.8%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly International Trade Balance‧forecast427A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value445A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 Canada7Monthly trade balance‧forecast32.5A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value36.3A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 Canada7Monthly export‧Previous value413.9Billion
20：30 Canada7Monthly imports‧Previous value450.2Billion
20：30 加拿大第二季劳动生产率季率‧forecast-0.4%‧Previous value+0.4%
21：45 U.S.A8Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)-纽约商业活动指数‧Previous value721.1
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly factory order rate‧forecast+2.0%‧Previous value-1.5%
22：00 U.S.A7月扣除运输的工厂订单月率‧Previous value+0.4%
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision‧Previous value+4.4%
22：00 U.S.A7月扣除运输的耐用品订单月率修订‧Previous value+1.5%
22：00 U.S.A7月扣除国防的耐用品订单月率修订‧Previous value+3.8%
22：00 U.S.A7月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单月率修订‧Previous value+1.6%



News of the Week

U.S.A7Monthly personal income increased compared to the previous month0.4%
U.S.A7Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)物价指数较前月持平
U.S.A7monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year0.8%
U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.6%
U.S.A7月个人支出较前月增加0.3%
U.S.A8monthADP民间就业岗位增加17.7Ten thousand
U.S.A7月成屋待完成销售指数大涨1.3%

China8Monthly Official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by50.4
Caixin China8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFallback to50

芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯：低利率料将持续很长时间
克利夫兰联邦储备银行总裁梅斯特称，升息已是势在必行

U.S.AISM-8The monthly manufacturing index has dropped to49.4, for2For the first time since the month50
U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIThe final value is52.0
美国一周初请失业金人数为26.3Ten thousand people, estimated to be26.5ten thousand people
美国第二季非农单位劳工成本修正值为上升4.3%
U.S.A7月建筑支出和前月持平



9month1day
LondongoldMorning order price:1305.70
London gold afternoon fixing price:1309.50



Today's Introduction

美元在升息讯号变强之下本周早段表现良好，杰克森霍尔会议之后的利率futures走势显示，市场当时认为9月升息概率超过30%，12月加息的机率升至逾60%。不过越接近本周尾声，美元走势越趋于保守。美国ISM制造业指数意外疲弱，且为2月以来首次跌至萎缩区域，数据逆转美元升势，而从美国联邦基金利率期货来看，市场认为美联储在9month21-22日的下次会议上升息的概率只有20%多，尽管近期美联储官员讲话释放了近期将升息的信号。美国克利夫兰联邦储备银行总裁梅斯特周四表示，美国就业市场处于充分就业状态，美联储需逐步升息。梅斯特今年在美联储政策委员会中具有投票权。

展望下周，有多家央行将举行政策会议，包括澳洲央行、欧洲央行，加拿大等央行。杰克森霍尔会议之后，美联储官员极力酝酿美国升息氛围，其它央行有何对策将受关注。



XAU London Gold - 黄金险守千三关口，关注非农表现

The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust GLD周四黄金持仓量减少0.57%, to937.89吨，周三为943.23吨。黄金持仓量从30,325,860.13盎司降至30,154,104.94盎司。另外，8月全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量四个月来首次出现月度下降。

伦敦黄金周四在触及逾两个月最低点后转升，因美元受美国8月制造业数据意外疲弱打击下跌，数据令人们对美国经济力道产生了一些质疑。其它数据显示，美国上周初请失业金人数增幅小于预期，直指就业市场持续强劲。但投资者现在聚焦将于周五发布的美国8月非农就业报告，以判断美国联邦储备理事会(FED)是否仍处在今年升息的轨道上。

As seen in the technical chart5月底低位1199.60to7month6Daily high1374.91的累积涨幅计算，其38.2%and50%的回调目标为1308and1287美元。阻力预估在1325and1338For materials with high resistance1354水平。在型态上，由六月至今的走势已形成一组双顶型态，颈线位置为7month21Daily low1310，倘若后市显著跌破，延伸幅度预料可至100Balance moving average1296Horizontal to1284Further observation1276Horizontal.

London Gold9month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1310 – 1325
Resistance level:1338 – 1354
Support bit:1297 – 1284

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month1Day - 964.03ton
8month2Day - 969.97ton
8month3Day - 969.65ton
8month4Day - 973.21ton
8month5Day - 980.34ton
8month8Day - 973.80ton
8month9Day - 972.62ton
8month10Day - 972.62ton
8month11Day - 972.32ton
8month12Day - 960.45ton
8month15Day - 960.45ton
8month16Day - 962.23ton
8month17Day - 957.78ton
8month18Day - 955.99ton
8month19Day - 955.99ton
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton
8month30Day - 955.40ton
8month31Day - 943.23ton
9month1Day - 937.89ton


10Maturity date of monthly gold futures:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year8month4day)

Global:32803.5ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1823.3ton
Russia(7)：1498.7ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价呈盘整态势

伦敦白银方面，自上周走势开始呈盘底阶段，最低见于本周一的18.36美元，但随后快速反弹而受阻19美元关口，预料短期下跌动能已为减弱，并随着出现反扑。预料阻力为19.30and19.60Further, we will see that20.10美元。至于下方支持预估在100Balance moving average18.25，较大支持见于17.90and17.30USD.

London Silver9month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.70 – 19.30
Resistance level:19.60 – 20.10
Support bit:18.30 – 17.90

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month8Day - 10941.12ton
8month9Day - 10941.12ton
8month10Day - 10941.12ton
8month11Day - 10941.12ton
8month12Day - 10941.12ton
8month15Day - 10941.12ton
8month16Day - 10941.12ton
8month17Day - 10988.39ton
8month18Day - 11056.34ton
8month19Day - 11056.34ton
8month22Day - 11159.74ton
8month23Day - 11159.74ton
8month24Day - 11159.74ton
8month25Day - 11100.66ton
8month26Day - 11100.66ton
8month29Day - 11130.20ton
8month30Day - 11130.20ton
8month31Day - 11189.28ton
9month1Day - 11189.28ton



EUR euro - Prudent defense250MA

美元周四下滑，因数据显示美国8月制造业活动意外萎缩，令人在今日稍后备受关注的美国非农就业数据公布前，对美国经济力道产生了一些疑虑。美国供应管理协会(ISM)Weighing,8月制造业指数下跌3.2to49.4, for2月以来首次跌至萎缩区域。这项数据令美元多头受挫，多头原本预期本周美国数据表现强劲，将巩固美国联邦储备理事会(FED)较早升息的依据。

欧元兑美元走势，近日欧元持续滑落，暂见险守着250Balance moving average, currently250The antenna is in1.11水平，估计若跌破此区将加剧欧元弱势，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09上方。相对强弱指标及随机指数均已陷入超卖区域，不排除短期或先作整固。向上阻力则见于100antenna1.1215；另外，由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考，重要阻力指向1.15Horizontal.        

Focus:
周五：意大利第二季GDPFinal value‧eurozone7monthPPI
9month5day(one): Italy8monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧
France8monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧
Germany8monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧
eurozone8monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧
eurozone9monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone7Monthly retail sales
9month6day(two): Germany7Monthly industrial order rate‧Eurozone Q2GDP修订
9month7day(three): Germany7Monthly industrial production rate‧France7Monthly current account‧trade balance
9month8day(four)：法国第二季非农就业岗位季率修订‧Europe9Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate
9month9day(five): Germany7Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance‧France7Monthly budget balance‧工业生产月率

Related news
Germany7Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year3.8%
France7月消费者支出较6月意外降0.2%为连续第四个月下降
France8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year0.4%
Germany7月实质零售销售较前月增加1.7%
Germany7月实质零售销售较上年同期减少1.5%
Germany7Monthly basisILO标准计算的经季节调整就业人口增加4.1ten thousand people
西班牙制造业的8monthMarkitPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)Stable in51.0

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1215 – 1.1345 – 1.1432
support 1.1100 – 1.1000 – 1.0900



JPY yen - 数据低迷，央行存放宽政策压力

日本央行审议委员樱井真表示，日本央行可能维持基础货币目标不变，利用现有工具扩大刺激力度，而不会在本月政策检视会议上大幅调整货币政策框架。樱井真表示，目前不会讨论更激进的政策，比如购买外国公债或“直升机撒钱”等。樱井真之前是智库人士，他提倡超宽松政策。他说，日本央行可能把重点放在调整当前正采用的政策手段，并考虑修正公债收益率曲线的方案。受负利率政策影响，收益率曲线过于趋平。樱井真的看法之所以重要，在于他在日本央行审议委员会里的立场非常关键。该行将在9month20-21日的重要会议上全面评估政策框架，以加快实现2%的通胀率目标。日本央行的九位审议委员分为两派，一派支持央行总裁黑田东彦的激进措施，另一派则对于扩大刺激政策持谨慎看法，而樱井真的立场则位于中间地带。樱井真的讲话暗示，日本央行倾向于维持现状，而不是如一些学者建议的那样做出大的调整，比如对长期利率设置上限。樱井真强调，9月的会议不会放弃央行的激进宽松立场，或修改通胀率目标。但他暗示，可能会放弃用两年实现这个目标的时间框架，因为尽管大举印钞措施已经实施三年，但通胀率还是下滑。

美元在本周大多数时间都走强，但周四公布的美国制造业数据疲弱，削弱了近期围绕美国经济的乐观看法，亦打压了近期重燃的美联储升息预期，美元因此走低。目前，美元正对跌势展开整理。供应管理协会(ISM)Announced on Thursday, USA8月制造业活动六个月内首次出现萎缩，因新订单和生产骤降。8月制造业指数大跌3.2Percentage points, to49.4。鉴于美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业报告疲软，市场将静待周五的非农就业报告，以观察美联储会否冒险在本月或今年晚些时候升息。参与路透调查的分析师预计，8月美国将增加约180,000个就业岗位。

图表走势所见，美元兑日圆上周大致在100关口附近上下徘徊，至周五才见显著波动，升见本周四的104。图表上可见到汇价已突破三角区间，亦可视为延伸自七月的下降趋向线，突破此区后，应可见汇价重新上扬，进一步可看至100Balance moving average105.60To the extent that108。支持位则回看103and101.60Horizontal.

Focus:
9month5day(one): Japan7Monthly overtime pay
9month7day(three): Japan8monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan7Monthly Simultaneous Indicator Monthly Rate‧Leading indicators
9month8day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan8月银行放款余额年率‧Japan7Monthly current account‧Japan Season 2GDP修订
9month9day(five): Japan8Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index

Related news
穆迪确认日本评级为A1Looking forward to stability

Japan7月家庭支出同比减少0.5%
Japan7月零售销售同比下滑0.2%
Japan7The monthly unemployment rate has decreased3.0%, creating21Annual low
日本第二季资本支出同比增长3.1%
日本第二季经季调资本支出较上季下滑0.5%
Japan8Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value49.5，为六个月最高

央行审议委员樱井真暗示微调刺激政策，不会大幅调整

标普确认日本主权债信评级，因负利率减轻政府债务负担

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.60 – 108.00
support 103.00 – 101.60



GBP pound - Continuation of disputes and disputes

英镑兑美元周四跳升至一个月新高1.3317美元，此前数据显示8月英国制造业强劲反弹。周四公布的调查显示，英国8monthMarkit/CIPSManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Soaring to10Month high53.3，7月曾跌至三年低点。意外强劲的数据可能促使英国央行重新思考，若其它调查确认了这股趋势，那么该行是否有再度降息的必要性。

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元近月处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，下延目标将看至1.28and1.26Horizontal. The upper resistance material is50Balance moving average1.33，此区同时亦为下降趋向线位置，破位料可望英镑重新踏上升轨，目标可看至1.3370and1.3480Horizontal.

Focus:
9month2day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
9month5day(one): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI
9month6day(two): UK8monthBRC同店零售销售年率
9month7day(three): UK8monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by8Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index‧britain7Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output
9month8day(four): UK8月皇家测量师学会(RICS)Price difference
9month9day(five): UK7月建筑业产出‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Related news
NATIONWIDE: UK8Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.6%, up from the same period last year5.6%
YouGov/Cebr：英国企业8月看好未来12个月前景比例小升至48%，信心指数升至109.7

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3370 – 1.3480
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2800 – 1.2600



CHF Swiss franc - beautiful/瑞守稳0.95brace

上周汇价显著反弹，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，美元兑瑞郎或仍见上升动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9820and1.00关口。下方支持仍会瞩目于0.95水平，下一级关键在5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
瑞士第二季非农就业岗位较上年同期增0.6%to490.3Ten thousand
Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标为99.8
UBS7月瑞士消费指数升至1.32spot
Switzerland8Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by51.0
Switzerland7月实质零售销售下滑2.2%        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9820 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 关注央行下周议息

澳洲财长莫里森(Scott Morrison)周五表示，他已任命澳洲央行助理总裁德贝尔(Guy Debelle)担任央行副总裁。德贝尔将接替洛威的职位，后者将于本月稍后接替史蒂文斯担任央行总裁。德贝尔自2007年开始掌管澳洲央行的金融市场部门。他是1994年加入央行的，曾供职于国际货币基金组织(IMF)、国际清算银行(BIS)、澳洲财政部，并在美国麻省理工学院担任经济学客座教授。

下周有澳洲央行开会，并将公布利率决定。澳洲央行8月降息至纪录低位，而且降息大门依旧敞开。但由于利差交易，澳元作为高收益资产，在降息环境下仍展现出韧性。

图表走势分析，由2014year7Monthly high0.9505to2016year1Monthly low0.6827，其累积跌幅的38.2%反弹幅度1023点，亦即为0.7850，相当接近今年4Monthly high0.7836。澳元随后展开一段〝V〞型走势，先是下滑至5month24Daily low0.7145，之后又重新反弹，延至上周高见0.7760，因此，向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口；进一步目标预计为0.8165, for50%的反弹水准。在短期走势则需留意，澳元上周触及高位后出现回落，并促使相对强弱指标及随机指数亦已呈回落状态，短线仍存在调整压力。关键支撑见于0.75，进一步调整幅度料会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380Horizontal.

Related news
Australia7月经季节调整后建筑许可较前月跳涨11.3%, increased compared to the same period last year3.1%

澳洲央行助理总裁德贝尔被任命为央行副总裁

Focus:
9month5day(one): Australia8monthMIInflation indicator monthly rate‧ANZNewspaper job advertisement‧ANZOnline recruitment advertisement‧澳洲第二季商业库存‧商业总获利‧商业税前获利
9month6day(two)：澳洲第二季流动帐平衡‧凈出口对GDP的贡献率‧Australia9Monthly central bank interest rate decision
9month7day(three): Australia Season 2GDP%
9month8day(four): Australia7月商品和服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
9month9day(five): Australia7Monthly housing financing‧Investment oriented housing financing

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7850 – 0.8000 – 0.8165
support 0.7500 – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽西兰央行总裁惠勒：无需很快连续降息

纽元兑美元方面，图表见相对强弱指标及随机数据回落，示意纽元可能正步入调整阶段，向下测试一短期上升趋向线于0.72水平，破位将确立回调走势；以自五月底起始的累积涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整目标将达至0.7095and0.7015Next level can be seen in0.6935。上方阻力预估在0.7350and100Monthly average line0.7460Horizontal, the key lies in0.75Horizontal.

Related news
纽西兰第二季贸易条件较前季下降2.1%

Focus:
9month7day(three)：纽西兰第二季制造业销售
9month9day(five): New Zealand8月电子卡零售销售

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7350 – 0.7460 – 0.7500
support 0.7200* – 0.7095 – 0.7015 – 0.6935



CAD Cad - 央行下周议息

一项路透调查显示，加拿大央行维持利率不变的时间可能比原先预期的更久，因经济缺乏动能已促使分析师将升息时间预期进一步推迟至2018年。路透调查的分析师一致预期，加拿大央行在9month7日的政策决议将维持利率于0.50%不变。据路透查访35名经济分析师的预估中值，加拿大央行现在可能等到2018年第一季才会升息到0.75%. Reuters7月调查时分析师原本预计2017年第四季就会升息。加拿大是主要石油出口国，去年油价重挫使加拿大受到重击，该国经济自2015年短暂陷入衰退以来，力图恢复动能。阿尔伯塔省先前发生的山林大火给今年经济增长带来重击，导致加拿大第二季经济以全球金融危机以来最大幅度萎缩。加拿大央行寄望该国面对的阻力只是短暂的，盼美国的需求增强及加元走软将帮助加拿大出口部门恢复元气。去年加拿大央行降息两次，以抵消油价疲软带来的影响。分析师仍认为，该央行接下来采取降息的机率有30%。

美元兑加元本周重返1.30水平，脱离上周五低位1.2818。图表走势所见，当前的临界点为1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458。然而，亦需留意相对强弱指及随机指数已出现回升，美元短线仍有回弹倾向。预估阻力在1.3150and1.32Greater resistance can be seen in200Balance moving average1.3280Horizontal.

Focus:
9month2day(five): Canada7Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧加拿大第二季劳动生产率季率
9month7day(three)Bank of Canada interest rate decision‧Canada8monthIvey PMI
9month8day(four): Canada7Monthly building permit rate‧新屋价格指数‧Capacity utilization rate in the second quarter of Canada
9month9day(five): Canada8Monthly housing construction annual rate‧就业岗位变动‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate

Related news
Canada6Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.7%，为连续第三个月增长
Canada's Q2 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)环比年率为下降1.6%。

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3150 – 1.3200 – 1.3280
support 1.2920 – 1.2760 – 1.2650* – 1.2500




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

要在实践的荒野，没有早一步，也没有晚一步，于千万人中去邂逅自己的爱人，那是太难的缘分，世界上有太多的擦肩而过，更多的时候，我们只是在彼此不断的错过，错过鲜花烂漫的春，又错过了枫叶瑟索的秋，直到漫天白雪，年华不再，在一次次的辛酸感叹之后，才能终于了解——即使真挚，即使两个人都已是心有戚戚，我们的爱，依然需要时间来成全和考验。这世界有着太多的这样的限制与隐秘的禁忌，又有太多难以预测的变故和身不由己的离合，一个转身，也许就已经一辈子错过，要求奥道很多年以后，才会参透所有的争取与努力，也许还抵不果命运开的恶一个玩笑，上帝只在云端一眨眼，所有的结局，就都已经完全改变。”