Crossing the Sea 2016year8month29day

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Crossing the Sea 2016year8month29day

Focus this week:
8month29day(Monday)
U.S.A7Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A7Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A7monthPCEprice index
U.S.A8Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month

8month30day(Tuesday)
U.S.A7Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean
U.S.A6monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数
U.S.A8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A8月达拉斯联储服务业营收指数

8month31day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A8Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A7Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

9month1day(Thursday)
U.S.A8monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
美国第二季单位劳工成本修订
美国第二季非农业生产力
U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A7Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A8monthISMManufacturing Index

9month2day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A7Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A8monthISM-纽约商业活动指数
U.S.A7Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A7Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

Important economic data released today:
16：00 Italy8Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Previous value103.1
16：00 Italy8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Previous value111.3
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly actual personal expenditure rate‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly personal income rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly rate of personal expenses adjusted for menstrual season‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+1.6%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+0.9%
22：30 U.S.A8Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month‧Negative front value1.30

8month26day
LondongoldMorning order price:1324.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1318.75

Today's Introduction

本周金融市场将迎来多项重要经济数据，其中美国将于周四公布8monthISM制造业采购经理指数，重点关注则会是周五美国8月非农数据。7月美国非农职位意外地增加25.5万个，表现高于市场预期，8月非农业职位市场普遍预期增加19万个；至于8月美国失业率市场普遍预期维持在4.9%不变，数据表现将对美联储9月的议息会议起了重要决策影响。

XAU London Gold - 耶伦言论偏鹰，黄金受压挫低

上周美元走势陷于区间争持，市场守候美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席耶伦周五发表讲话，市场人士普遍相信其言论将使美国今年是否升息的问题更加明朗。耶伦在央行年会表示，近几个月升息的可能性增强，因就业市场改善，且预期经济温和成长。她没有暗示美联储何时升息，但其讲话巩固了今年稍晚可能加息的预估。耶伦讲话后，美股先升后回挫，美元就大幅走高，脱离本周争持区间；联储副主席在稍后的讲话亦增加了年内加息的可能性，费希尔表示认为今年可能升息，其言论促使美元指数进一步走高至95.59, for8month16The highest level in recent days.

伦敦黄金周五在耶伦讲话后纵然一度涨至1341水平，但随后快速回挫，尾盘报1320.85美元，接近于上日触及的四周低点1317.46美元。技术图表所见，4Days9Days and25天平均线均呈向下交迭，亦即同时出现两个利淡交叉，示意金价后市倾向弱势发展。此外，随着三角型态的形成，早前连番未能冲破顶部，至上周三则终跌破三角底部，令技术面更形恶化。若以黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的回调目标为1308and1287美元。另一关键测试点将会指向7month21Daily low1310美元，假若届时走至此区，则会形成一组双顶型态，而此区亦成为颈线位置，跌破后延伸幅度预料可至100Balance moving average1293水平。阻力预估在1327and1336For materials with high resistance1354USD.

London Gold8month29 – 9month2Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1327 – 1335 – 1354 – 1381
Support bit:1306 – 1297 – 1284 – 1271

London Gold8month29day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1308 – 1333
Resistance level:1349 – 1359 – 1371
Support bit:1302 – 1291 – 1279

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month1Day - 964.03ton
8month2Day - 969.97ton
8month3Day - 969.65ton
8month4Day - 973.21ton
8month5Day - 980.34ton
8month8Day - 973.80ton
8month9Day - 972.62ton
8month10Day - 972.62ton
8month11Day - 972.32ton
8month12Day - 960.45ton
8month15Day - 960.45ton
8month16Day - 962.23ton
8month17Day - 957.78ton
8month18Day - 955.99ton
8month19Day - 955.99ton
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton

10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year8month4day)

Global:32803.5ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1823.3ton
Russia(7)：1498.7ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton

XAG London Silver - 银价失守三角下行

伦敦白银方面，上周四触及八周低点18.46美元，周五则仍见在此低位水平附近徘徊，尾盘报18.61美元。从图表可见，前期银价走势处于三角型态内运行，而此前一周已告明确跌破三角底部，预料后市仍有机会在存在新一轮调整。下方支撑先看18.10and17.90，下一级至17.60。上方阻力则留意下降趋向线在19.83美元，短线较近阻力料为18.90and19.40USD.

London Silver8month29 – 9month2Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:19.00 – 19.40 – 20.10 – 20.88
Support bit:18.20 – 18.00 – 17.30 – 17.00

London Silver8month29day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.00 – 19.40
Resistance level:20.00 – 20.80
Support bit:17.40 – 17.00

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month1Day - 10915.95ton
8month2Day - 10911.57ton
8month3Day - 10911.57ton
8month4Day - 10911.57ton
8month5Day - 10911.57ton
8month8Day - 10941.12ton
8month9Day - 10941.12ton
8month10Day - 10941.12ton
8month11Day - 10941.12ton
8month12Day - 10941.12ton
8month15Day - 10941.12ton
8month16Day - 10941.12ton
8month17Day - 10988.39ton
8month18Day - 11056.34ton
8month19Day - 11056.34ton
8month22Day - 11159.74ton
8month23Day - 11159.74ton
8month24Day - 11159.74ton
8month25Day - 11100.66ton
8month26Day - 11100.66ton

EUR euro - 摆脱整理区间

欧元兑美元走势，图表走势所见，欧元兑美元冲破了100天平均线，两周前受制于此指针，目前100The antenna is in1.1220，若汇价仍可持稳此区之上，则有望保持涨势。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考，重要阻力指向1.15水平。下方较大支持则预估在250Balance moving average1.1110，进一步则以1.09为重要依据。

Focus:
8month29day(one): Italy8Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Consumer confidence index
8month30day(two): Italy6Monthly retail sales‧eurozone8Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数‧Germany8monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value
8month31day(three): France7Monthly consumer expenditure rate&#8231PI‧France8monthHICPinitial value‧Germany8Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy7Monthly unemployment rate‧薪资指数‧Italy8monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value‧eurozone8monthHICPinitial value‧eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate
9month1day(four): Italy8monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany8monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
9month2day(five)：意大利第二季GDPFinal value‧eurozone7monthPPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1220 –- 1.1110 – 1.0900

JPY yen - 日本数据低迷，央行存放宽政策压力

美元周五反弹，投资者聚焦美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席耶伦的讲话，她称美国经济状况改善，增强了升息的可能性。当耶伦开始讲话不久，美元一度走低，因耶伦没有暗示升息临近，但当市场人士再次审视她的整体讲话，加上之后联储副主席费希尔的鹰派言论，美元随后上涨。费希尔表示，美联储仍在今年升息轨道上。根据CMEofFedWatch，联邦基金利率期货暗示，9月升息的可能性从耶伦讲话前的24%Increase to36%，12月升息的可能性则从57%Upgrade to60%。

对于日本央行将在9月会议上采取更多刺激措施的预期增强，亦压抑日圆。在外界日益怀疑日本央行能否达成2%的通胀目标，该行将检讨旗下各种政策。日本政府在8月报告中维持经济评估不变，但对于消费者通胀的看法较上月略显悲观，因家庭支出走疲拖累物价下滑，并且日圆走强拉低了进口成本。周四公布的路透调查显示，多数分析师预期日本央行下个月将进一步放松政策，此外，许多受访者猜测，日本央行也可能调整通胀目标措词。但约有40%的受访分析师表示，他们预期日本央行将维持货币政策不变。

As shown in the chart, the USD/JPY ratio100关口附近上下徘徊，前一周最低位见于周二的99.53。图表上可见到汇价正运行于三角区间，支持位见于99.20，若明确破位，延伸支持则估计为98To the extent that100Monthly average line96.80水平。上方阻力则先看三角顶部101，亦可视为下降趋向线，上周已见突破此区，应可见汇价重新上扬，延展目标料为50Balance moving average102.80and104Horizontal.

Focus:
8month30day(two): Japan7All monthly household expenses‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧零售销售年率
8month31day(three): Japan7Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
9month1day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧日本第二季商业资本支出年率‧Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI
9month2day(five): Japan8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 101.00 – 102.65 – 104.00
support 99.20* – 98.00 – 96.80

GBP pound - Continuation of disputes and disputes

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元近月处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，下延目标将看至1.28and1.26Horizontal. The upper resistance material is50Balance moving average1.33，此区同时亦为下降趋向线位置，破位料可望英镑重新踏上升轨，目标可看至1.3370and1.3480Horizontal.

Focus:
8month30day(two): UK7Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
8month31day(three): UK8monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧Nationwidehousing price
9month1day(four): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
9month2day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3370 – 1.3480
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2800 – 1.2600

CHF Swiss franc - beautiful/瑞守稳0.95brace

本周汇价显著反弹，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，美元兑瑞郎或仍见上升动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9840and1.00关口。下方支持仍会瞩目于0.95水平，下一级关键在5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
8month30day(two)Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标‧瑞士第二季非农就业岗位
8month31day(three)Switzerland7UBS Group(UBS)Consumer index
9month1day(four)Switzerland7Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9840 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440

AUD AUD - 短线呈动荡

图表走势分析，由2014year7Monthly high0.9505to2016year1Monthly low0.6827，其累积跌幅的38.2%反弹幅度1023点，亦即为0.7850，相当接近今年4Monthly high0.7836。澳元随后展开一段〝V〞型走势，先是下滑至5month24Daily low0.7145，之后又重新反弹，延至上周高见0.7760，因此，向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口；进一步目标预计为0.8165, for50%的反弹水准。在短期走势则需留意，澳元上周触及高位后出现回落，并促使相对强弱指标及随机指数亦已呈回落状态，短线仍存在调整压力。初步支撑指向25Balance moving average0.7590，关键则会是延伸自5月底的上升趋向线，目前处于0.7520水准，只要此区能稳守住，澳元近月来的反弹趋势仍可望维持。反之，若然失守澳元调整幅度料会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380Horizontal.

Focus:
8month31day(three): Australia7monthHIA新屋销售月率‧民间部门信贷‧Housing credit
9month1day(four)：澳洲第二季资本支出季率‧建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出‧Australia7Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7850 – 0.8000 – 0.8165
support 0.7580 – 0.7500 – 0.7380

NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽西兰央行总裁惠勒：无需很快连续降息

图表见相对强弱指标及随机数据徘徊在超买区域，示意纽元可能正步入调整阶段，向下测试一短期上升趋向线于0.72水平，破位将确立回调走势；以自五月底起始的累积涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整目标将达至0.7095and0.7015Next level can be seen in0.6935。上方阻力预估在0.7350and100Monthly average line0.7460Horizontal, the key lies in0.75Horizontal.

Focus:
8month30day(two): New Zealand7Monthly Building Permit
8month31day(three): New Zealand8monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
9month1day(four)：纽西兰第二季贸易条件季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7350 – 0.7460 – 0.7520
support 0.7200 – 0.7095 – 0.7015 – 0.6935

CAD Cad - 油价下挫打压加元

图表走势所见，当前的临界点为1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458。然而，亦需留意相对强弱指及随机指数已从超卖区域回升，美元短线有回弹倾向。预估阻力在100Balance moving average1.2930and1.30关口，较大阻力见于1.3080。

Focus:
8month30day(two)：加拿大第二季流动帐平衡‧Canada7月工业产品价格‧原材料价格
8month31day(three): Canada6monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada Season 2GDP
9month1day(four): Canada8monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
9month2day(five): Canada7Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧加拿大第二季劳动生产率季率

Related news
Canada6Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.7%，为连续第三个月增长

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2930 – 1.3000 – 1.3260
support 1.2760 – 1.2650 – 1.2500

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)