ZFXShanhai Securities: Geopolitical storm reignites! Gold prices soar nearly3%！

The sudden military action launched by the United States against Venezuela instantly ignited the market's risk aversion and propelledgoldThe price has risen rapidly, with spot gold reaching a nearly week-high and even approaching a historical record high. Spot gold rapidly rose after the event erupted2.7%Received reports on Monday4448.82dollar/Ounces, the highest reached during trading4455.59USD, distance12month26Richuang4549.71The record high of the US dollar is just one step away.


1、 Maduro on trial in New York

local time5At noon, Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, who were forcibly controlled by the United States, appeared in court for the Southern District of New York for the first time. Maduro stated in court that he was "kidnapped" and "I am not guilty", rejecting all accusations against him by the US.


According to US Attorney General Bondi, Maduro is charged with "drug terrorism conspiracy, cocaine smuggling conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and possession of machine guns and destructive devices conspiracy against the United States".

The Hindustan Times reported that the charges against Maduro by the United States are of an "extremely serious" nature and will face severe punishment if convicted. The minimum sentence for drug terrorism alone is20The maximum sentence is life imprisonment.

2、 Trader: Gold may once again challenge historical highs


A trader said, "The situation in Venezuela has clearly reactivated safe haven demand, but the market has already been concerned about geopolitics, energy supply, and monetary policy." He pointed out that if geopolitical tensions further escalate or US economic data strengthens expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting more aggressive easing policies, gold is likely to challenge historical highs again.

The recent rise in gold continues the strong momentum of precious metals last year.2025In the year, driven by geopolitical hotspots and the Federal Reserve's loose interest rate cycle, gold rose as much as64%。

3、 Key Fibonacci retracement range for gold testing


On a daily basis, although gold prices fell sharply last week, the main trend remains upward. If the gold price breaks through4536.74The historical high of the US dollar will mean the resumption of the upward trend; If it falls below a new swing low point4274.02The trend of the US dollar may reverse downwards and is expected to be tested4185.87USD50Daily moving average support.

The current short-term fluctuation range is4536.74USD to4274.02The US dollar and gold prices are testing this range50%-61.8%The Fibonacci retracement band, i.e4405.38-4436.38The US dollar range. The trader's reaction to this range may determine the long-term direction of the gold market.

If the gold price can stand firm4436.38The Fibonacci resistance level of the US dollar will release a signal of buying return. If this breakthrough can generate enough upward momentum, the gold price is expected to impact in the short term4536.74The historical high of the US dollar.

On the contrary, if the gold price is unable to break through4405.38USD50%A retracement level indicates an emergence of selling pressure in the market, which may exacerbate selling pressure and cause4274.02The support level of the US dollar has once again become the focus of the market.