ZFXShanhai Securities: Gold has risen three times in a row! Set the highest point in five weeks!

Thursday（8month28day)In stockgoldStrong price breakthrough3400The psychological barrier of the US dollar has reached its highest point per ounce3423.02The US dollar, created by7month23The highest point in the past five weeks. The surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including the weakening of the US dollar, Israeli airstrikes on Yemen, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the influx of safe haven funds.

1、 Reasons for the continuous rise of gold in this round

（1）The US dollar continues to weaken

The continued weakness of the US dollar index provides important support for the rise in gold prices.8month28On the day, the US dollar index fell0.3%, to97.85Level, this is the third consecutive trading day of decline for the US dollar. The weakness of the US dollar has made gold priced in US dollars cheaper for overseas buyers, thereby stimulating international demand. The suggestion of a possible interest rate cut by New York Fed President Williams further strengthened market expectations of a weaker US dollar. When the US dollar loses its former glory, the traditional gold"safe haven"Nature has become the target of financial pursuit.

（2）Israeli airstrikes on Yemen

Israel Defense Forces 8month28On the same day, a statement was issued stating that the Israeli military launched airstrikes on military targets of the Houthi militants in Yemen. The statement stated that the Houthis, guided and funded by Iran, continue to threaten the security of Israel and its allies, disrupt regional stability, and disrupt international navigation freedom.

（3）Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve

President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook has sparked deep concerns in the market about the Fed's independence. Cook subsequently filed a lawsuit, claiming that the President has no authority to dismiss him, and this legal dispute could reshape the long-standing norms of the Federal Reserve's independence. Analysts point out that:"Trump's pressure has raised concerns that the Federal Open Market Committee may cut interest rates faster and maintain low rates for a longer period of time, which is favorable for gold prices."Political uncertainty has become an invisible driving force behind the rise in gold prices.

（4）The influx of safe haven funds

the world's largestSPDRgoldETFData shows that goldETFnear1Monthly funds are slowly flowing in, and the risk aversion of funds may be on the way. In the medium to long term, against the backdrop of the trend of "de dollarization", global investors are reshaping their asset allocation strategies, seeking alternatives to US dollar credit or promoting the internationalization of their currencies to reduce excessive dependence on the US dollar. Gold can effectively hedge against the risks of US dollar depreciation and real interest rate decline, and its asset safe haven function is gradually emerging.

2、 Prediction of future trend of gold price

by2025year8month29International Spot Gold Price Report3416.86dollar/Ounces, showing a fluctuating upward trend recently.COMEXgoldfuturesPrice reached3475.4dollar/Ounces, reaching a recent high. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to2025Annual interest rate cuts,CME FedWatchTool display9Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability is close to one basis point100%It is expected that there will be at least two interest rate cuts within the year. The expectation of interest rate cuts is heating up, providing bottom support for gold.

Non Farm and Non Farm Farmers in the United StatesCPIThe data performance will affect the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Weak data strengthens the logic of interest rate cuts to support gold prices, while strong data may trigger volatility. In addition, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and geopolitical risks remain high, exacerbating market risk aversion.

Overall, spot gold is2025In the second half of the year, the short-term trend is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, and gold prices may maintain a volatile upward trend. In the medium to long term, most institutions believe that gold still has the potential to rise, with a focus on the target range3100-3570dollar/ounce. Global central bank gold purchases, de dollarization trends, and geopolitical risks constitute long-term support. In addition, investors need to be alert to the potential pullback pressure brought about by the Federal Reserve's policy shift, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the easing of geopolitical tensions.

3、 Follow tonight's upcoming announcementPCEdata

8month29Personal consumption expenditure to be released soon（PCE）Data is considered the most important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, and its performance is likely to determine9The final direction of the monthly monetary policy meeting. The current complex economic background highlights the safe haven nature of gold - regardless of the direction of the economy, gold seems to find reasons to rise.