Trump returns to the White House, political maneuvering gathers market attention in the first season

On his first day back in the White House, the newly elected US President Trump forcefully led the overthrow of the previous North Korean policy and signed a large number of executive orders, some of which will inevitably face legal battles in the future. The initial actions observed mainly focus on climate, administrative, and immigration issues.

With lightning speed, Trump announced the opening of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, important trading partners of the United States25%Tariffs imposed on China10%Tariffs. Moreover, the EU and the UK will be the next targets. Canadian and Mexican authorities have also taken similar measures to impose retaliatory tariffs on American products. Just before the start of the tariff war, the United States reached an agreement with Mexico to postpone tariffs30Days. Trump stated three conditions for lifting tariffs, including trade balance, curbing illegal immigration, and blocking fentanyl. However, this statement is difficult to calm the already formed uneasy atmosphere, and it is speculated that Trump will take more actions to achieve deeper political deals. As of the deadline for this article, talks among multiple countries are currently underway. In the uncertain situation of the first quarter, the strength of the news is expected to strongly suppress other market fundamentals.

Trump has a clear stance in supporting petrochemical energy, and he intends to suppress itcrude oilPrice slowdown leads to rising inflation. Since his inauguration, the oil market has indeed reflected that this psychological expectation has entered a correction pattern. The current oil prices are not optimistic, and the stock prices of refining related companies are under pressure. The prices of other raw materials have also weakened due to concerns about tariff barriers harming demand, which in turn affects transportation and shipping stocks. The long-term effect of this approach remains to be observed. In addition, the green energy industry, including wind power, solar energy, and others, is easily impacted. In an uncertain context, precious metals remain attractive as traditional hedging tools. Although digital currencies are supported by policies, they must be viewed as risky assets, and their direction will be influenced by the Federal Reserve.

At the first meeting of the new year, the Federal Reserve's interest rates remained unchanged, revealing a conservative tone in the statement. Major investment banks had already reduced the frequency and magnitude of interest rate cuts by the end of last year. Profit oriented investments such asREITSThis year, the road to recovery will be stumbling. At present, the US dollar and its index have entered a short-term bullish pattern. Made in the United StatesMAGAThe main melody plays, and funds flow back to the local market. Financial stocks, investment holding companies, and industrial and infrastructure stocks are expected to benefit. The performance space of technology and other sectors will be limited due to the rebound of fixed income commodity yields and the catalysis of off-season effects.

The rise of protectionism internationally, and the extent to which this wave will reach is unknown. Investors should maintain a cautious attitude, constantly track current events, and hold moderate positions in the first quarter, paying attention to whether key support and pressure points are firm. After the situation becomes clear, it is advisable to lay out long-term investments.