Da Tian Global: Record breaking for seven consecutive days, gold price challenged this week2400

As of2024year04month10During the Japanese Asian session, the market is waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting this weekCPIThe release of data, butgoldThe momentum is still unstoppable, and it has reached a historic high for multiple consecutive trading days. There is now hope for further impact2400Da Guan. Due to the approaching date of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June and the significant risk aversion caused by the Middle East situation, investors are continuously increasing their holdings of gold. Despite so many positive factors, the outlook for gold is still optimistic.

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　　Gold continues to soar or experience shocks2400Gateway

Spot gold fluctuated narrowly, with gold prices hitting a record high for the seventh consecutive trading day on Monday2353.83dollar/Ounces, closing2338.82dollar/Ounces, aided by central bank buying and geopolitical tensions, have not weakened the attractiveness of gold due to strong economic data.

The People's Bank of China last Sunday(4month7day)The published detailed data shows that,3At the end of the month, the gold reserve is7,274Ten thousand ounces, increased from the end of last month16Ten thousand ounces, continuous17Increase holdings for months. Türkiye, India, Kazakhstan and some Eastern European countries are also buying gold this year.

Last Friday, there was still data showing that as of4month2In the past week, the New York Mercantile Exchange(COMEX)The net long position held by gold speculators has increased20493Mouth, to17.8213Ten thousand people.

Wall Street is starting to raise its forecast. according toMarketwatchCitigroup analysts have updated their three-month forecast to2400dollar/Ounces, their more optimistic prediction is that the price of precious metals will be2500dollar/ounce.

　　AbrdnInvestment Strategy DirectorRobert MinterThe price of gold has risen to2350dollar/The historical high of over ounces has just begun, and it is only a matter of time for retail investors to buy gold backed stocks. Exchange traded funds are entering the next major upward phase.

However, Bart, Head of Commodity Strategy at Dao Ming SecuritiesBart MelekDespite strong economic data, the market still expects6Interest rates will be lowered before the end of the month. However, if we continue to see strong data suggesting that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, then gold will not be able to maintain its upward trend

　　MelekIt was added that "central bank buying and geopolitical tensions are other supporting factors."

Zhishang Institute(CME)According to data, traders believe that the United States6First monthly interest rate cut25The probability of a basis point is52%Left and right. However, last Friday's data showed that,3The monthly employment growth in the United States exceeded expectations, raising questions about the timing of interest rate cuts.

Moreover, concerns about the geopolitical situation have also subsided. Israeli officials are optimistic about the ceasefire talks with Hamas.

Currently, it appears that,2350A psychological resistance level has formed in the vicinity, and if this resistance cannot be overcome, in the United States this weekCPIBefore the data and minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, some bulls may choose to take profits and trigger a short-term correction in gold prices, and if gold prices break through strongly2350At the critical juncture, there is hope for an upward trend2380-2400Area.

　　Middle East ceasefire negotiations are deadlocked, intensifying concerns

International oil prices fluctuate narrowly, UScrude oilThe main contract is currently being traded on86.70dollar/Near the bucket. Oil prices fluctuated and fell on Monday, ending consecutive trading days of gains. Previously, Israel reduced its military presence in southern Gaza and began a new round of ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, with the largest intraday drop exceeding2%However, the decline narrowed significantly after the European and American period, as the ceasefire negotiations were deadlocked, causing concerns about supply shortages to persist.

Among the many factors affecting the outlook for oil demand, the US employment report released last Friday showed a stable economic performance at the end of the first quarter, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts. High interest rates are not conducive to the growth of crude oil consumption and tend to be bearish on oil prices.

Israel has decided to withdraw more troops from southern Gaza. Israel and Hamas opened a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks on Sunday, but a Hamas official said the talks are still deadlocked.

A senior Hamas official said on Monday that Hamas has rejected Israel's proposed ceasefire during the Cairo talks;Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the invasion of Rafah(Rafah)The date has been determined. Rafah is the last refuge for displaced Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel and Hamas sent negotiation teams to Egypt last Sunday, including mediators from Qatar and Egypt, as well as CIA Director Burns(William Burns)Also participated in this meeting.

Burns' attendance highlights the increasing pressure from the United States to reach an agreement between Israel and Hamas. However, senior officials from HamasAli Baraka"We reject the latest proposal made by Egypt to Israel. The Politburo made this decision at today's meeting," he said

Another Hamas official earlier stated that there has been no progress in the negotiations. "The position of Israel, the occupying party, has not changed, so the negotiations in Cairo have no new ideas," said the anonymous Hamas official. "There has been no progress so far."

The details of the proposal are currently unclear. After the Israeli army withdrew from some areas in southern Gaza on Monday, Netanyahu stated in Jerusalem that he had received a detailed report on the Cairo talks.

Netanyahu said, "We have been working hard to achieve our goal, first and foremost, to release all our hostages and achieve a complete victory over Hamas. This victory requires entering Rafah and eliminating local terrorist forces. This will happen."--We have a date Netanyahu did not specify a specific date.

Rafah is the last refuge for Palestinian civilians. Israel stated that this is also the last important stronghold of Hamas combat forces. On the Washington side, a White House spokesperson stated that the United States hopes to reach an agreement to release hostages as soon as possible, as the agreement will also lead to a ceasefire of about six weeks.