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The small non farmers announced this WednesdayADPThe data is less than expected, indicating that the big non farm data will also be less than satisfactory tonight. For specific data,11monthADPLatest value increase12.710000 people, the former value is23.910000 people, expected2010000 people, the latest value is lower than expected7.310000 people.11Monthly non farm value is26.110000 people, expected20万人。如果公布值如小非农数据一样低于预期,代表美国劳动力市场趋于收缩,美联储激进加息的副作用显现。在美国高通胀问题已经得到缓解的背景下,偏弱的就业数据将坚定美联储暂缓激进加息的决心。美元指数和十年期美债收益率大概率继续承压下行,美国三大stock market indexandgold白银的强势反弹将会延续。
对于金融市场来说,美国的经济数据只起到信号作用,最终的落脚点是美联储货币政策。市场已经消化了12月份美联储加息幅度从75Base point reduced to50基点的预期,接下来的市场焦点会转移至“美联储何时停止加息”。债券市场的利率倒挂可以提供参考。一年期美债收益率最新值4.69%,半年期 美债收益率4.7%,短周期债券的收益率高于长周期债券收益率,利率倒挂临界期为半年。这意味着,最晚到明年5月份,美联储将停止加息甚至开启降息操作。
*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-12-02