Yu Yue on Jin:10.26How to Operate the Continued Volatility of Gold and Silver Today's Trend Analysis and...

Market interpretation:



Wednesday(10month26day)Asian period, spotgold窄幅震荡，美国8The monthly housing price decline exceeded expectations, and two out of the three components of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing index are10The month has significantly deteriorated, and the current situation index in the World Enterprise Research Consumer Confidence Index has dropped sharply, further weakening the Federal Reserve12Monthly interest rate hike75The expectation of one basis point has raised the expectation that the Federal Reserve may slow down its interest rate hike, and the US dollar index fell sharply on Tuesday1%, hitting a new low in nearly two weeks110.76，给金价提供支撑，美债收益率也从多年高位回落，预计未来关于美联储调转货币政策的讨论会越来越多，有望给金价提供进一步反弹动能。



　　如果美联储12月加息幅度低于预期的75个基点，这将是加息步伐放缓的信号，对黄金来说是利好。不过，市场预计加拿大央行将加息75个基点，周四欧洲央行将加息75By one basis point, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week75个基点，多头期待更多数据去支撑美联储未来将放缓加息步伐的预期。本交易日还需关注美国9Monthly adjusted new home sales annualized total, pay attention to geopolitical and UK political situation related news.



Gold Technology Analysis:



　　黄金昨日先横盘窄幅震荡，欧盘时段行情一度回撤调整刺破1640支撑，然晚间美数据表现不佳，市场对美联储放缓加息的预期加强，导致黄金出现一波快速拉升，但上方至1662一线后便再度受阻回修，震荡跌回至1653-50处，日线最终收得一带有上下影线的阳星线。



　　从日线结构来看，明确虽然翻上5、10日线上方，但依然处在20日线下，短线行情结构重心虽有抬升，但实际上涨空间并未放大，这样的状态说明黄金已有止跌反弹的技术条件，但市场对其反弹信心还是不足的，多头动能难以形成连续的跟进，也就很难打开上方空间。同时随着美联储利率决定的到来，市场预期对黄金也会构成一定的打压，所以下半周以及下周，黄金的上涨空间都可能会比较有限。上方可着重关注20Daily line1668-70附近压力测试，而在此之前1660-63也会有反复争夺过程。因隔夜拉升反弹，黄金回到5、10日线上方，故日内可将5、10Daily line1650-48视作为关键支撑带。



　　结合小时图走势，隔夜黄金拉升的太过突然，同时此前行情对1640有刺破动作，说明这样的走势状态并非黄金自身技术上的需要，完全是受外界影响，也充分表明当前行情的异动风险是非常大的。隔夜的拉升使得短线结构重心上移，日内下方着重关注1650-48争夺，如果跌回其下，那么黄金很有可能会向着1640再进行测试，且短线结构也会因此再度改变。而如果行情能守住1650，则短线行情可能会延续震荡反弹，上方可关注1660附近争夺，如果行情偏强，上方也只能测压至1670附近。操作上建议继续尝试区间内短线低多高空。



Silver Technology Analysis:



　　昨日白银早盘开盘在19.195After reaching a certain position, the market will rise first19.37The area has fallen nearby, and the daily minimum has been given18.77After reaching its position, the market surged strongly and reached its highest point19.42After sorting out the position, the daily line finally closed at19.32The market closed in a hammer shaped pattern with a very long lower shadow nearby, and after this pattern ended, today's market continued to be strong. It is recommended to make a correction in operation19.05Multiple, stop loss18.85, look at the goal19.45.Break the position to see19.7and19.9.



　　crude oilAnalysis of the latest market trend



　　10month26At the beginning of the Asian market on Wednesday, American Oil Trading Co., Ltd84.63dollar/Near the bucket; Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, as the US dollar weakened and the Saudi Energy Minister emphasized supply concerns, boosting the oil market. The Saudi Energy Minister stated that the tightening of the global liquefied natural gas market and supply cuts from major oil producing countries have put the world in the "first truly global energy crisis". The escalation of the "dirty bomb" scandal between Russia and Ukraine has also boosted oil prices, which is being closely monitored in the dayEIA数据。分析师称，“来自利雅得和IEA的发言提醒我们，能源危机远远没有结束，”“人们仍然担心市场供应不足。”美元走软和沙特能源大臣强调供应担忧提振油市。周一，政府数据显示，中国9Monthly crude oil imports decreased compared to the same period last year2%Eurozone, UK, and US10The monthly corporate activities have shrunk. Expected increase in crude oil storage in the United States last week100万桶，这可能会限制油价涨幅。美国石油协会(API)的数据称，上周美国原油库存猛增。截至10month21During the current week, crude oil inventories increased by approximately450万桶，汽油库存减少约230Ten thousand barrels, the inventory of distillate oil has increased by about60万桶。总体来看，供应担忧提振油价，俄乌“脏弹”风波发酵升级，地缘紧张局势下，油价短线跌幅受限；早间API数据显示美国原油库存增加，日内关注EIA数据，若进一步显示库存增加，油价短线或下跌，但跌幅或有限，此外，关注“脏弹”风波的发展。



　　原油从技术面来看，原油昨日再次十字星K线整理收盘，与日评预期一致。维持在87.0-82.0Pull back and forth between intervals. And yesterday it was given83.0There are more lower tracks and upper tracks85.80-86.0Empty. Basically, it is a intraday oscillation range, currently entering a back and forth tug of war, and the continuity of long and short positions is not strong. Small cycle Bollinger Bands close, with the daily chart showing a narrow cross for four consecutive trading daysK线收盘。短期等待方向选择。日内短线还是看在区间内震荡。4Hour chart and1The hourly chart shows a parallel closing of the Bollinger Bands, which remained oscillating back and forth between the upper and lower tracks yesterday. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are still closing, and the short-term trend for the day is still within the range87.0-82.0Fluctuating back and forth. Breakthrough and adjust mindset, short-term operations remain consistent with yesterday, and move up the track85.80-86.0Short space, lower track82.80-83.0附近短多。超短线看回上下轨落袋为安不恋战。突破区间再顺势跟进。综合来看，今日短线操作思路建议以反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注87.0-87.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below83.0-82.5Frontline support.