Fang Yuan said Jin:10.25Gold shock adjustment, crude oil range high selling and low buying

goldTrend analysis:


   Yesterday in the United States9monthPMIPoor data performance, market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve12Monthly interest rate increase75The expected cooling of one basis point has provided support for gold prices, and gold prices have remained stable on Monday5The daily moving average suggests that bulls still have a chance. However, US bond yields remain at high levels for over a decade, and market concerns about the UK political situation have cooled, slightly suppressing safe haven demand for gold. Additionally, it is highly likely that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates this week75Basis points, market expects US Q3GDPWill increase year-on-year2.1%Expected in the United States9monthPCEIt will also remain at a high level and will still limit the upward potential of gold prices.


   At present, the market is still in a wait-and-see state. As for the economic weakness seen by the Federal Reserve, what signals will they send......This should provide some support for gold in the short term. However, inflation is a beast that is difficult to kill. The Federal Reserve will slowly carry out these rate hikes before issuing a turn signal This trading day, we will pay attention to the Energy Ministers Meeting of the European Union, monitor the performance and market sentiment changes of the new Prime Minister of the UK after taking office, and keep an eye on news related to the geopolitical situation.


In terms of gold, yesterday it continued to rise and tested until1670Adjust the upward retracement and lower retracement to1643Nearby, the market performance in the evening was not active, and the market has been in a constant state1650Narrow fluctuations up and down, the daily chart eventually closed with a small bearish candlestick. From a daily structure perspective, yesterday's gold rose and fell, and the pressure was measured to20After moving above the daily line, retract to5、10Near the daily chart, such a trend indicates that the current market still does not have the conditions for a strong upward trend, and Friday's pull was more influenced by sudden news. The market has already digested this, and the short-term market fundamentals focus may gradually shift towards next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision over time. At present, it is difficult for gold to have a significant rebound in the daily structure, but under the influence of last Friday's bullish trend, there may not be too much decline. The expected intraday market is likely to be dominated by volatile digestion, with attention paid below5Daily line1643/42Nearby support testing, with a focus on the top20Daily line1668Under pressure, it is highly likely that the market will operate within this range. If it breaks through, adjustments will be made during the trading session based on specific circumstances.



On the hourly chart, yesterday's gold operation status met expectations and decreased1645-40After the region stopped rebounding, but as the market digested Friday's news, market sentiment tended to stabilize, but it was difficult for the market to have strong rebound momentum again. The subsequent rebound only rebounded to1655Nearby. At present, the hourly chart structure shows that although gold still has the technical conditions for a rebound, the market's bullish confidence is not strong, and the extent of the market's rebound has been clearly limited. Therefore, gold has changed its thinking within the day, focusing mainly on range fluctuations, and will continue to pay attention below1645-40Area, viewed from above1660Short term pressure, strong pressure still looks good1668-70Region. In terms of operation, given the narrow range of fluctuations in the European and American gold market yesterday, which increased the difficulty of short-term operations, conservatives may want to wait and see for the day and not rush to enter the market for operation. Radical attempts are made to focus on short-term low and high range, but it is necessary to lower positions and lower participation levels to prevent the risk of abnormal movements after narrow fluctuations in the market.



Golden Strategy:

　　1，1660Near empty, stop loss6USD, target1645-40

　　2，1642Nearby, stop loss6USD, target1655-60


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crude oilMarket trend analysis:


   On the technical side, crude oil was mainly volatile yesterday, with a long downward trend and a small negative closing on the daily chart,MACD 0The adhesive operation near the axis has not yet come out of consolidation as a whole;60Multiple moving averages are glued together in the minute chart,MACD 0Golden fork above the shaft(Red column contraction)Overall, the current bullish and bearish factors of crude oil remain anxious, with weakened demand expectations and a strengthening US dollar suppressing the rebound space of crude oil; But the contraction of the supply side also provides some support for crude oil; It is expected that it will still be difficult to break out of consolidation in the short term; But be wary of rapid and significant fluctuations in the market;


Today's operational suggestion: Short term approach, deal with high selling and low buying;

Pressure attention86--86.3; Follow Above86.8--87.2；88.3Nearby;

Supporting attention83.2--82.7；82--81.7(Pre market forecast for reference only, detailed in market communication)

Note: This article is provided by Fang Yuan. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. If reprinted, please indicate the source. Kind reminder, investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market. Due to the latency of online publishing, operational suggestions are for reference only. Specific locations will be provided based on actual data. Please take risk control measures yourself.