指南金师：今日黄金走势分析，黄金日内依旧主多回踩跟多

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(8month24day)Volatile closing up, opening price1749.54dollar/Ounces, highest price1755.64dollar/Ounces, lowest price1742.25dollar/Ounces, closing price1751.00dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States7Monthly rate of durable goods orders recorded0%，低于市场要娶你0.6%, previous value is2.00%。


Commentary states that the United States7月份工厂核心生产资料订单增幅超过预期，表明尽管利率上升且市场对经济走弱感到担忧，但设备需求持续。国防飞机和零部件的订单下降了近50%，拖累了耐用品的整体指标。数据显示，企业仍在投资较长期的技术和设备，部分原因可能是劳动力持续短缺。然而，在未来几个月里，由于借贷成本上升，以及美国经济前景的不确定性加剧，耐用品订单可能会减弱。


Wednesday's announcement of the United States7月成屋签约销售指数月率录得-1%Higher than market expectations-4%, previous value is-8.6%。


　　美国房产经纪协会NAR首席经济学家表示，房价同比增速仍在以两位数的百分比上涨，但到今年年底和2023年，价格同比涨幅应该会放缓至5%的典型水平。随着抵押贷款利率有望稳定在接近6%的水平，以及就业岗位的稳步增加，房屋销售将在明年初开始上升。就当前的楼市周期而言，合同签约量可能已经接近底部。这个月非常温和的下降反映了最近抵押贷款利率的回落。高价格区间的房屋库存正在增加，但较低价格区间的供应有限阻碍了交易活动。


　　纽约联储的研究显示，美国疫情期爆发的通胀主要来自需求激增，但供应链方面的限制也在推波助澜。2019-2021年间，约60％的通胀是由需求方因素驱动的，其余的是供应问题。纽约联储研究和统计小组的气候风险研究主管Julian Giovanni表示，结论是供应限制放大了需求升高对通胀的影响。需求方面的因素在推动物价上涨方面发挥了更大作用。财政和货币支持导致整体需求增加，需求构成也发生了变化，消费者从服务业转向了商品，这导致了供需之间的更多失衡，扩大了供应限制的影响。


　　标普分析，今明两年，全球经济增长仍然疲弱，通胀料将在未来两年放缓。预计全球实际GDP增速将从2021Of5.8%Slow down to2022Of2.7%and2023Of2.3%。一旦通胀回落，金融状况改善，2024年全球经济增长有望恢复到3%。将2022年亚太地区实际GDP增速预期从3.8%调升至4.2%，2023年进一步升至4.5%(2021年增速为6.2%)。美国实际GDP增速预计将从2021Of5.7%Slow down to2022Of1.5%，2023年进一步放缓至1.0%，随后在2024Annual recovery to1.7%。随着增速低于潜在水平，美国的失业率可能会从7Of the month3.5%Ascend to2024年中期的4.8%。


　　分析称，美联储9月第三次75个基点加息可能性超过50%，但远未板上钉钉。投资者期待鲍威尔今年能够透露未来加息路径的任何看法，或者某种新的政策指导或框架，但宏观环境预计不会有实质性变化，黄金前景仍然相当看跌。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is39.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is60.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is11.9%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is45.8%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is42.2%。


Today's Focus:


　　14:00Germany Q2 not seasonally adjustedGDPAnnual rate final value


　　16:00Germany8monthIFOBusiness Prosperity Index


　　18:00britain8monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　19:30Announced by the European Central Bank7Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


　　20:30From the United States to8month20Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30US Q2 ActualGDPRevised value of annualized quarterly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金已在这个位置震荡了两天，昨天周三黄金继续延续它的震荡，我们也是以震荡的思路在1753Short to1744收获，在1743又反手做多再次收获，区间拦截是对震荡最好的方法，基本可以上下全部通吃，但是从时间和指标上来看黄金已没有震荡的空间和震荡的时间，因为周五美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的全球央行年会上发表讲话，再加之日线5Rihe10日均线已经靠近，这是下破信号，现在的黄金是属于大跌之后的底部修复，虽然近期一直在震荡，但是这样的震荡并没有改变周线的空头趋势，周线一直处于空头状态，指南金师还是坚信震荡结束后向下突破的可能性更大，一旦下突破1730这波动力足以看1700附近，浪结果显示的大底也在1700附近，所以我们大趋势看跌短线看震荡。


　　黄金小区间我们重点关注1760-1730，如果反弹到1755-1760我们再次做空，止损后不在考虑1760多单拦截，这个位置一旦突破趋势将有所变动，目前我们在操作上下跌破位1740有机会我们也可以追空，上方1760突破也可以追多，突破任何一方都是震荡结束的信号，笔者预计黄金即将突破我们拭目以待。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹空为主，低多为辅，上方短期关注1760-1770Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1740-1730Frontline support.


Recommendations for Gold Operations


　　1：黄金反弹：1760-1765Short nearby, stop loss6Points, target1745-1750Nearby, break down and take a look1740-35First line (recommended for reference only!)


　　2：黄金回调：1740-1745Long nearby, stop loss6Points, target1755-1760Nearby, break down and take a look1765-70First line (recommended for reference only!)


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