Xiao Yizhou:7.26Analysis of the latest trend of gold, and the latest operating strategy for gold in the afternoon...

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Xiao Yizhou - The following is for the daygoldcrude oilDaily trend analysis and specific operational strategies

　　昨日，黄金整体波幅不大，价格冲高回落，小范围内震荡。美债收益率小幅上涨，令黄金承压，但市场观望情绪也比较浓厚，因为本周还将迎来美二季度GDPand7monthPCE数据。不过，地缘局势依然紧张，市场对美经济衰退的预期挥之不去，美元周一在逾两周低位附近徘徊，短线来看，仍有进一步回调风险，考虑到地缘局势依然紧张，黄金价格目前处于相对低位，如果能够守住1700关口支撑，则后市仍留有震荡上涨的机会。

　　目前影响黄金的最大因素是对美联储会议的预期，以及将于周四公布的美第二季GDP数据也可能是一个重要的驱动因素。不过，这次利率决议跟之前略微有所不同的是，此前金价一度消化了美联储加息100点的预期，而目前市场对美联储本周加息100点的预期已经显著降温，这使得部分黄金空头提前离场，反而在利率决议前有望给黄金多头提供机会。基本面方面，利多因素略多一点，在美元震荡回调之际，黄金的避险买需仍有望给价格提供支撑，但临近美联储决议，市场观望情绪会越来越浓，料波动有限，需要留意市场预期的变化。

　　黄金日线级别布林带收口，价格在触底反弹之后保持横盘整理态势，昨日价格冲高回落，但并未失守1713附近支撑，日内开盘，价格小幅上涨，整体走势震荡偏多，日内需关注上方布林中轨一线阻力。4小时，布林带开口向上，价格在盘整之后回踩布林中轨延续上涨，短线走势震荡偏多，日内操作思路继续看涨，以布林中轨一线为支撑做多即可，下方关注1720Frontline support.

　　原油价格周一上涨超1.5%，受益于俄进一步削减通过北溪一号天然气管道输送的天然气供应，欧洲能源危机严峻，同时美元下跌也为油价提供支撑，但对美联储过于激进地加息预期，经济衰退担忧或引发燃料需求可能减弱，油价涨幅有限。

　　原油现实基本面偏紧的格局并未完全逆转，供应端的支撑因素依然存在。尤其是在美方出访中东后，沙特并未表态将迅速增产，可能仍延续此前渐进式恢复产量的计划。除了欧佩克外，其他潜在的供应增量目前也未看到明朗的信号，短期供应的释放量很难完全填补俄的缺口。不过美汽油消费放缓，全球经济正在放缓，加剧了市场对需求端的担忧，短期油市方向很不明朗，将继续维持区间震荡的状态。

　　原油日线级别来说，整体保持着震荡的走势，价格多次试探92-95这一区域支撑，但并未形成有效的突破，而近段时间每次反弹的高点都在下移，整体还是处于下行趋势线之下，上方布林中轨对价格形成强有力的压制，只有突破这一位置，价格上涨才会有大的空间。4小时，布林带收口走平，价格站上中轨一线，整体处于三角收敛区域，早间开盘价格延续昨日涨势，日内有望继续走高，而下一个目标就是下行趋势线附近阻力，这也是日线布林中轨的位置101美元一线，日内操作思路回调做多，下方关注97One line support for the US dollar.

Operational strategy:

Gold: Callback1720Long nearby, stop loss1713, Objective1745。

Crude oil: callback97.5Long nearby, stop loss96.5, Objective100.5。

Yizhou Case Sharing:

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