Xiao Yizhou:7.20今日黄金最新走势分析，午间最新操作策略指...

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Xiao Yizhou - The following is for the daygoldcrude oilDaily trend analysis and specific operational strategies

　　昨日，黄金波动不大，维持在1710附近窄幅震荡，虽然美元指数延续跌势，日线三连阴，并一度创近两周新低至106.36附近，但黄金价格却维持低位窄幅震荡走势，并没有走出明显的反弹行情，一方面是美股大涨收盘至六周高位，打压了避险需求，而且美债收益率上涨，增加持有黄金的机会成本，另一方面，虽然市场预计美联储7Monthly interest rate increase100点概率仅30%，但未来可能会维持激进加息，而且全球多数央行倾向于大幅加息，也对金价打压明显，考虑到周四欧洲央行将加息25Point or50点，黄金价格短线进一步下探的风险也明显增加。

　　整体来看，黄金价格目前处于低位震荡调整走势，美元回调、地缘局势担忧、经济衰退担忧为黄金提供逢低买盘和避险买盘支撑，但价格整体反弹相对较小，连续三个交易日反弹受阻，暗示上方空方压力较强，而且市场认为虽然美联储7月不会加息100点，但加息周期可能会持续到明年初，全球多个央行也偏向激进加息，这令黄金多头有所顾忌。

　　黄金近期走势整体而言相对较弱，价格在连续下跌触及1700关口后，基本没有太多的反弹，而从基本面上来说，也缺少价格上涨的动力。日线级别，布林带开口向下，价格横盘于1700关口上方，价格两次向上试探，均未能突破1725一线阻力，短线反弹有点难度。4小时，布林带走平，价格围绕着中轨附近震荡，上轨附近阻力压制明显，日内大概率小幅反弹后再度延续震荡下行走势，短线操作思路保持看空，上方关注1725A line of resistance.

　　原油价格昨日连续收涨，由于俄向欧洲供气遭遇不可抗力，美方的中东之行未能说服沙特增产，供应紧缺忧虑再度浮现，掩盖了潜在经济衰退可能抑制燃料需求的担忧，加之美元持续自20年高点回落，原油价格扩大了反弹走势。不过早间公布的美API原油库存数据增加，在一定程度上限制了油价的涨幅。

　　就目前市场而言，整体原油产量增幅不大。虽然美联储鹰派官员安抚市场称100个基点的加息幅度不在计划内，但高通胀压力导致市场对于本月大幅加息的预期仍存，经济担忧难缓解，或将抑制原油消费。另一方面，OPEC+不太可能计划在短期内比以往更积极地增加产量，同时，美元走软为更广泛的大宗商品价格提供了支撑。短期内原油市场仍将维持供不应求态势，但供需矛盾较前期有所弱化，后市大概率会维持宽幅震荡的走势。

　　原油本周走势较为强势，价格自试探90美元一线后，开启了连续反弹的走势，日线级别，布林带收口，价格走出了三连阳的格局，整体走势上震荡偏多，目前暂时受到上方布林中轨的压制，但随着地缘政治风险的升级，价格大概率会进一步走高。4小时，布林带开口向上，价格整体呈震荡上行态势，虽然昨日走了一波回落行情，但很快就收复失地，预期日内价格小幅回调整理后，会延续昨日涨势，日内操作思路暂时以回调做多为主，下方关注99Frontline support.

Operational strategy:

　　黄金：反弹1718Short nearby, stop loss1725, Objective1690。

Crude oil: callback99.5Long nearby, stop loss98.5, Objective102。

Yizhou Case Sharing:

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