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goldLatest Market Analysis
Monday(6month20day)Asian market intraday, goldfutures维持反弹走势,期金目前交投在1847dollar/盎司附近。本周美联储主席鲍威尔以及多位美联储官员将发表讲话,预计将引发本周黄金市场波动。上周美联储决定加息75个基点,加息幅度创1994年以来最大。最新点阵图显示,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)预计年底利率中值将达到3.4%,政策利率上升将持续到2023年。本周三和周四美联储主席鲍威尔将就货币政策报告在国会参众两院作证。预计届时鲍威尔将面临美国国会议员的强力挑战,包括如何引导经济软着陆,并控制处于近40年高位的物价水平。分析师指出,假如鲍威尔发表鹰派言论,黄金期货面临大跌的风险。
6month20日,投资者需要关注的重点数据包括中国5月管道天然气进口量,中国截至6month20日当周一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率。大事方面需要关注澳洲联储主席洛威发表讲话。此外。6month20日美国迎来六月节,投资者需要关注美国纽约交易所,CMEandICE的休市公告。黄金价格此前跌破1840美元的潜在缓冲后,当前已大幅反弹。从更广泛的角度来看,随着美联储预计将在其7月货币政策中宣布,连续加息75Basis points(bps),贵金属正关注更多下行空间。贵金属在开盘时显示出卖压,在跌破周五低点1833.90美元后,极有可能出现后续卖盘。但技术分析上,仍需要紧盯后续卖盘下行空间,看跌交叉所引发的空头情绪。值得关注的是,美股本周初休市,估计带来的影响冲击较小。
黄金技术面分析:黄金上周受美联储利率决定的影响,表现震荡回弹,但又没有实际上涨动能,上方触及1857一线后有所承压回修,周五收得一阴线,依旧处在日线级别均线带之间震荡运行。日线结构上,黄金短线方向不是很明朗的状态,上周受基本面的影响反倒走势更显混乱,来回在日均线带之间反复争夺,导致整体走势结构更倾向于大区间的横盘震荡状态。如果这种横盘震荡延续时间加长,对于黄金整体结构而言反倒是很不利的,有扩大中长线下跌空间的可能性。而如果黄金要回升,基本面目前似乎又没有太过明确的支持,所以这也是困扰黄金走势的关键因素之一,中长线角度来看,黄金也就可能会更偏空一些。
小时图上,上周五黄金震荡回修,短线行情形成小周期的下修通道,目前下行只运行了两波,预期日内或再有一波回撤调整的可能性,下方可关注1833-30、1826/25Short support test nearby, can be followed above1845Nearby short pressure, main pressure depends on1848-50一带压力测试,因周一美盘休市,交易相对会清淡一些,预期日内黄金震荡空间不会很大,大致看此区间内震荡运行即可,如果行情走出此区间,则再根据实际运行状态再做分析调整。周一黄金暂作区间内短线低多高空,预期在美盘休市的情况下,行情交投会清淡许多,故实际操作上也适度减少参与频率和仓位,以规避交投清淡带来的控盘风险。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上萧毅舟建议反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方重点关注1850-1855Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1825Frontline support.
crude oilMarket trend analysis
Enter6月,国际油市又迎来一波跌宕起伏。随着欧盟宣布将实施俄罗斯原油海运进口禁令,俄原油产品遭到欧洲迄今为止最为严厉的“封锁”,这不仅让本就吃紧的供应进一步紧缩,还迫使俄罗斯调整原油出口结构。在此背景下,由沙特和俄罗斯引领的“欧佩克 ”减产联盟在一份声明中表示,将原计划9月进行的产量调整提前至7Month and8月进行,原油增产规模将从目前的43.210000 barrels/Daily increase to64.710000 barrels/日,增幅接近50%,同时计划6月底提前召开减产月度例会,以随时评估国际油市走势。尽管如此,国际两大基准油价仍然高歌猛进,油市前景仍不明朗。
Monday(6month20day),国际油价承压,料跌破上个交易日创下的5月份以来低位。北京时间16:20,NYMEXCrude oil futures down0.16%to107.80dollar/Barrel;ICEBrent crude oil futures fell0.28%to110.00dollar/桶。两市上周分别创5month19New low since the beginning of the day106.40dollar/Bucket and5month24New low since the beginning of the day109.09dollar/桶。从技术面上看,期货原油日K线实体大阴线续跌,日线布林带开口下探,实时价格运行至布林带下轨下方,各均线指标呈现空头排列,整体走势极弱,不排除欧美盘行情延续破新低的可能性;4小时盘面上来看,早间开盘油价跳空低开,日内原油反弹力度有限,关键MA5均线指标承压下移,布林带下轨支撑同步下移,附图指标上MACD三轨死叉即将到达超卖区域,KDJ随机指标死叉,RSA强弱指标偏空,主体思路主空对待。但萧毅舟提示原油实时价格亚欧盘连续下跌,交投中也需要留意美盘会有止跌反弹行情出现。综合来看,今日行情上方关注109.6-110.8Resistance, pay attention below106.1-104.7支撑,操作上建议反弹做空为主,低多为辅。
原油价格初次跌至月线MA5average105.6-105.2区域大胆做多;反弹不破上周五尾盘修复高点110.2附近继续做空;大胆预测,谨慎交易。
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Confidence is the guarantee of success, and those who are good at fighting will not be good at it, and those who are good at it will not be good at it. I hope Xiao Yizhou's article can bring you harvest and have a smooth sailing in your future investments. If you have any questions, you can talk to me. I am not only a guidance teacher, but also a friend worth making in your life. Xiao Yizhou captures the ever-changing market with rich experience, precise perspective, and sharp judgment!
——This article is exclusively contributed by Xiao Yizhou. Please indicate the source when reprinting. Online publishing is subject to review, and the intraday market is volatile. The above suggestions are for reference only. To obtain daily real-time strategies and current price lists, you can add Xiao Yizhou【vx:xyz158986,QQ:467477536】
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