Wang Decheng:1.18Analysis of the Main Futures Market for Japanese Coke Glass Egg White Sugar

   What I want to emphasize this time is a99%The fatal mistake that all investors make is to only operate in the short term. The author can confidently tell investment friends that any trader who only operates in the short term will definitely lose, and it is basically impossible to make a profit. Only by focusing on medium to long term trading and supplementing it with short-term trading can you have a profitable opportunity. Otherwise, you will find that in the end, all of your principal has become transaction feesfuturesFortunately, the first-hand handling fee is only a few tens of yuan. If you do itgoldforeign exchangeThe handling fee of 300 or over 600 yuan per day is too high for frequent short-term transactions. Investment friends who have been trading for a long time must have a deep understanding of a phenomenon, which is that earning three orders is not enough to offset the loss of one order. However, once you turn an order into a medium to long term profit of several hundred points, you will find that the profit of one medium to long term order can offset the loss of about ten short term orders. This is the flaw of pure short term trading. So I advise everyone to stay away from the kind of teacher who makes you frequently operate short-term orders every day. You must adjust your mindset and learn to gradually turn short-term orders into medium to long term orders. Futures products such as coke, coke, coal, iron ore, apple glass, etc. are now in a unilateral market, which is a good opportunity to layout the medium to long term.

   

   Alright, let's start analyzing the market trend of major commodity futures such as coke, glass, eggs, and sugar next week.

  

   Coke main contract:

    Monday coke2105Inflation and pressure correction, reduction of positions1.2More than ten thousand hands. The top ten capital flows: Long positions are concentrated in reducing positions, and the concentration of positions is still high, while short positions are concentrated in reducing positions, and the concentration continues to decrease. The current domestic and international epidemic concerns and panic have intensified. The Hebei epidemic has led to an increase in the maintenance of some steel mills, and expectations for the release of new production capacity by coke enterprises have emerged. Speculative sentiment in high futures price areas has cooled down, and the risk of concentrated funds increasing or decreasing warehouse washing has increased; However, the overall supply and demand of spot goods remain tight, and key funding support will be strengthened. Short term or prolonged volatility, pay attention to the impact of key funding flows and market sentiment changes.

   Shandong, Hebei and other coke enterprises20Daily increase in coke prices100Yuan. The current policy of reducing production capacity has led to tight supply and demand for coke, leading to a significant increase. Rising prices and stable transactions of coke in Rizhao and Qingdao Port: quasi first-class coke2750Primary focus2850Including tax price. The Fenwei Plain is subject to environmental protection and production restrictions due to weather conditions, with slightly adjusted operating rates for coke enterprises, low inventory, and strong price increases; Coal mine rectification and Mongolian customs clearance issues continue to increase the price of coking coal; High demand and low inventory in steel mills increase the pressure of restocking and stocking; Port inventory slightly increased.

In terms of short-term operation, coke2105Contracts may continue to fluctuate, pay attention to the impact of key funding flows and market sentiment changes, and suggest stepping back735-2760Multiple entry orders near the interval, it is recommended to keep them in place if there is no loss.

    Glass main contract:

    Glass bottoming and backwashing50Multiple point reporting1735The market along the positive line has suppressed demand for glass due to downstream holidays.2020year12month19Guangdong Glass Deep Processing Enterprise30Qiang held a round table meeting on self-discipline and self-improvement in Foshan, which mainly discussed three aspects: price increases, linkage, and holidays. Among them, the plan is from1month15Day off45Days. Subsequently, glass deep processing enterprises in multiple regions such as Hainan, Chongqing, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, and Shandong also issued a joint statement on self-discipline and coordination, stating that during difficult periods of glass raw material procurement, they will mainly focus on digesting their own inventory, and will continue to do so in the future1month15Day off45Tian, in response to the current situation of high prices for glass raw materials. The key to the shutdown of glass deep processing enterprises lies in the increase in raw material prices, coupled with low price competition among peers, which has led to the suppression of terminal product prices. It is unclear whether the shutdown of glass deep processing enterprises can be transmitted to the original sheet factories, leading to a decrease in glass sheet prices. However, there is no doubt that the demand for glass sheet during the shutdown period will decrease.

　  In terms of short-term operation, glass2105The sharp fluctuations in the high prices of the contract and glass are expected to fall back, and the market is expected to continue the sluggish and declining trend. Wang Decheng suggests charging higher1750Under pressure, enter the market in batches with empty orders strategy, short-term attention1724and1706Stop profits and reduce positions in batches.

  Egg Main Contract:

    Eggs rise, fall, and fall140Multiple point reporting4550The shape of the big negative line has recently been affected by gas temperature and the epidemic, which has increased the psychological expectation of early stocking and the willingness of consumers to stock up. Vegetable prices are showing an upward trend, boosting the spot price of eggs to significantly increase. At the same time, after the temperature drops, the egg production rate of laying hens decreases, and the pressure on egg supply is reduced. In addition, the prices of corn and soybean meal remain high and strong, resulting in significant cost pressure on the breeding end. As feed costs gradually increase, farmers have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, egg prices are at a relatively high level, and terminal resistance is starting to rise. Due to the impact of the epidemic, downstream food factories have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and their stocking efforts are weaker than in previous years. The overall market is not moving fast, and it is expected that egg prices will continue to be strong and volatile.

In terms of short-term operations, eggs2105The overall trend of the contract and eggs is strengthening, and the upward trend is attacking the market. The eggs have been consolidating and fluctuating continuously, washing out the strong market. Wang Decheng suggests that the eggs step back4500reach4450Multiple orders are entered in batches near the front line, and it is recommended to hold them continuously if there is no loss.

  White Sugar Main Contract:

    20/21The production during the squeezing season is basically stable, and the cost of sugar production is expected to increase year-on-year; Some regions are affected by the land competition effect of crops such as soybeans and corn, and it is expected that the planting area in the next pressing season will be easy to shrink and difficult to expand. Unless direct subsidy policies are introduced, the cost of sugar production will also be difficult to significantly decrease. The import policy is expected to be a gradual relaxation process, and overall, it will still consider the domestic total balance. Although inventory is at a historic high, according to French sugar merchants with a large sugar business in Brazil, a large portion of Brazil's historically high sugar inventory has been sold, and there is not much sugar available for sale in Brazil this year12Month to2021year3During the monthly break, the domestic market supply may be tightened. Yunnan Province26Domestic sugar factories are operating, with an increase year-on-year4Home, accumulated sugarcane production159.5Ten thousand tons, sugarcane extracted in the same period last year92.3210000 tons; Accumulated sugar production17.410000 tons, sugar production in the same period last year9.8610000 tons; Sugar production rate10.91%Slightly higher than the same period last year10.69%. Maintaining a high purchase price for sugarcane in southern Guangxi can only help stabilize the willingness of sugarcane farmers to plant, but it is not enough to switch other crops to sugarcane, and high-quality varieties with high sugar have already been occupied90%In the above situation, there is not much room for improvement in sugarcane yield and sugar content. Therefore, overall, the planting area and yield of sugar in the next pressing season are expected to steadily decrease nationwide, while the high purchase price of sugar will continue to support the high cost of sugar production.

    In terms of short-term operation, white sugar2105Adjustment of contract trend, contradiction between supply and demand, with trend adjustment as the main focus, and operation as follows5600reach5300High throw and low suction, rolling operation.

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。