Wang Decheng:18Analysis on the Main Futures Market of Nippon Iron Ore Thread Glass Soybean Meal

       I haven't written an article for a week because of some things. Through communication with some investment friends this week, I discovered a99%The fatal mistake that all investors make is to only operate in the short term. The author can confidently tell investment friends that any trader who only operates in the short term will definitely lose, and it is basically impossible to make a profit. Only by focusing on medium to long term trading and supplementing it with short-term trading can you have a profitable opportunity. Otherwise, you will find that in the end, all of your principal has become transaction feesfuturesFortunately, the first-hand handling fee is only a few tens of yuan. If you do itgoldforeign exchangeThe handling fee of 300 or over 600 yuan per day is too high for frequent short-term transactions. Investment friends who have been trading for a long time must have a deep understanding of a phenomenon, which is that earning three orders is not enough to offset the loss of one order. However, once you turn an order into a medium to long term profit of several hundred points, you will find that the profit of one medium to long term order can offset the loss of about ten short term orders. This is the flaw of pure short term trading. So I advise everyone to stay away from the kind of teacher who makes you frequently operate short-term orders every day. You must adjust your mindset and learn to gradually turn short-term orders into medium to long term orders. Futures products such as coke, coke, coal, iron ore, apple glass, etc. are now in a unilateral market, which is a good opportunity to layout the medium to long term.

   Alright, let's start analyzing the market trend of major commodity futures such as iron ore, thread, glass, and soybean meal next week.

  Iron ore main contract:

   Fluctuations between iron ore communities on Friday20Report at around o'clock1052Along the way, pre holiday restocking was initiated, and steel mills' iron ore inventory rebounded. But there is still a gap between inventory levels in previous years, and it is expected that restocking will continue in the remaining weeks before the Spring Festival. Weekly shipments have decreased compared to the previous month, and the downward trend of shipments is seasonal. It is necessary to pay attention to weather conditions if it continues. The shipment also falls back. This week and the next two weeks, Hong Kong is on the high side, and in the last week of January, Hong Kong will once again decline.1The port will be reopened at the end of the month.

Operation suggestion: Iron ore2105The overall form of the contract is characterized by strong fluctuations in the range, and the market trend will be sorted out. The daily and weekly trends will experience severe fluctuations and fall back to adjust the demand market. The author suggests a pullback1025Support the strategy of entering multiple orders in batches above, please note1058and1064Stop profits and reduce positions in batches, with investors making independent decisions and independently assuming risks, profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only.

Glass main contract:

Friday Glass Low Position Weakness Sorting30Report at around o'clock1694A small overcast area, downstream holidays suppress demand for glass.12month19Guangdong Glass Deep Processing Enterprise30Qiang held a round table meeting on self-discipline and self-improvement in Foshan, which mainly discussed three aspects: price increases, linkage, and holidays. Among them, the plan is from1month15Day off45Days. Subsequently, glass deep processing enterprises in multiple regions such as Hainan, Chongqing, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, and Shandong also issued a joint statement on self-discipline and coordination, stating that during difficult periods of glass raw material procurement, they will mainly focus on digesting their own inventory, and will continue to do so in the future1month15Day off45Tian, in response to the current situation of high prices for glass raw materials. The key to the shutdown of glass deep processing enterprises lies in the increase in raw material prices, coupled with low price competition among peers, which has led to the suppression of terminal product prices. It is unclear whether the shutdown of glass deep processing enterprises can be transmitted to the original sheet factories, leading to a decrease in glass sheet prices. However, there is no doubt that the demand for glass sheet during the shutdown period will decrease.

　 Operation suggestion: Glass2105The sharp fluctuations in the high prices of the contract and glass are expected to fall back, and the market is expected to continue the sluggish and declining trend. The author suggests charging higher1750Under pressure, enter the market in batches with empty orders strategy, short-term attention1686and1666Stop profits and reduce positions in batches, with investors making independent decisions and independently assuming risks, profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only.

   Thread Main Contract:

    thread2105Contract rebounded in volume on Friday and closed at the positive line4360(Last day's price)4294）Currently, the three consecutive negative pullbacks have ended, but it remains to be seen whether the unilateral strength can continue. It is recommended to wait and see. Fundamentals: Shanghai Thread4380Steel billets3810Steel plant operating rate67.13%Social inventory42510000 tons, steel factory inventory276Ten thousand tons. The steel production level has peaked and fallen, while profits continue to rebound and remain low. Inventory in the middle and upper reaches continues to decline, but the pressure to destock remains high. Demand has weakened during the peak season, and the asset atmosphere is facing high volatility,01The contract discount repair still needs attention.2020The supply side reform has been basically completed, and the policy's ability to speculate in the future is limited. Macroeconomic systemic risks are still expected to emerge in the second round, and the demand for real estate investment and production will also weaken seasonally in the later stage. Pay attention to the global trend of the epidemic and its impact on the economy, as well as seasonal production dynamics. Asset atmosphere driving inflation expectations further reflects and hits again19Annual high.

Operation suggestion: Thread2105The overall trend of the contract continues to rise and remains unchanged, and it is currently in the process of a second correction. The author suggests relying on4300Low participation on the front line, continuous holding of profits, independent decision-making by investors in actual operations, and independent assumption of risks, profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only.

  

   Soybean meal main contract:

　  Recently, the activity of funds in the commodity market has continued to be high, and the rebound in oil prices has attracted attention from funds. Due to the low demand season corresponding to the current main contract of oil, funds are relatively cautious before reaching new highs. Feed manufacturers are actively restocking after the New Year's Day holiday, and the market is concerned about limited import supply. Accelerating pre holiday stocking has driven up the current price of domestic soybean meal significantly. Brazil is expected to see a significant improvement in precipitation over the next two weeks. Weather uncertainty is driving concerns about production and supply in South America, and continuous attention should be paid to weather forecasts, especially1La Ni ñ a may have an impact on Argentine soybean producing areas. Reuters Research Expectations TonightUSDAThe report will once again lower South American soybean and corn yields, continuing to support the strength of domestic soybean meal. After the Spring Festival, the consumption of fried food in China will decrease, and oil and fat will be in the off-season of consumption. For oil factories, if they want to stabilize their profits, they can only rely on soybean meal. Therefore, the price of soybean meal will inevitably be sold at a higher price by oil factories. In the past few years, the decrease in pork supply and the rise in prices have also stimulated the improvement of domestic poultry, aquaculture, ruminant and other aquaculture profits, and subsequently, the scale of other domestic aquaculture has also increased. With the development of COVID-19 vaccination, the economy at home and abroad will gradually return to normal, which will also play a supporting role for fast moving consumers such as soybean meal.

　 Operation suggestion: Soybean meal has a strong overall unilateral rise, with sufficient bull momentum. It is currently in a volatile energy storage process, and the author suggests stepping back3660The frontline adopts low to high operations, and profits can continue to be held. In actual operations, investors make independent decisions and bear their own risks, profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only.

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。