Wang Decheng:22日螺纹钢橡胶塑料豆粕期货行情分析和操作建议

          Wang Decheng:22日螺纹钢橡胶塑料豆粕futuresMarket analysis and operational recommendations

    笔者在昨天下午五点左右的时候写了一篇文章《王德诚：12.21gold市场都在看涨时，你得冷静防止机构出手》当时黄金报价在1901美元附近，那个时候基本上市场上的分析师和交易者全部都在看涨，我就文章里提示了，当市场情绪全部看涨的时候，这个时候就要防止机构出手。然后在下午06:11左右的时候，果然机构砸盘15亿美元，导致黄金直跌，一直探底到1856附近，跌幅接近60dollar.

     

    我要表达并不是说我预测能力有多准，或者说我分析能力有多强，我要表达的第一点就是不管是期货还是现货你都要要学会站在庄家机构的思维角度去分析行情，我要表达的第二点就是这就是经验的重要性，你有充足经验之后，你就能很好的预防市场未知的风险，先不谈盈利，最起码可以降低你交易的风险。经验可以给你提供最好的风控。希望各位看到我这篇文章的时候好好看一下我之前发的《王德诚：12.21黄金市场都在看涨时，你得冷静防止机构出手》这篇文章。

    螺纹：

　　【行情分析】：螺纹2105合约周一涨停大阳线报收4460(Last day's price)4316），验证了之前提到的“顶部形态后不跌反涨，变为诱空洗多，周线保持强势，下一步将维持上涨趋势”，出现反转信号之前顺势看多。

　  Shanghai Thread4380Steel billets3960Steel plant operating rate66.85%Social inventory37210000 tons, steel factory inventory240Ten thousand tons. The steel production level has peaked and fallen, while profits continue to rebound and remain low. Inventory in the middle and upper reaches continues to decline, but the pressure to destock remains high. Demand has weakened during the peak season, and the asset atmosphere is facing high volatility,01The contract discount repair still needs attention.2020The supply side reform has been basically completed, and the policy's ability to speculate in the future is limited. Macroeconomic systemic risks are still expected to emerge in the second round, and the demand for real estate investment and production will also weaken seasonally in the later stage. Pay attention to the global trend of the epidemic and its impact on the economy, as well as seasonal production dynamics. Asset atmosphere driving inflation expectations further reflects and hits again19Annual high.

　　操作建议：上周依托5均逢低介入的多单设保护减持，新仓暂时不再追高。

    橡胶：

　　【行情分析】：今日橡胶走强上攻300Multiple point reporting14960Positive line market, rubber gradually strengthened and rose last week400Multiple point reporting14840Positive line market, passenger car production227.8Year-on-year growth of 10000 vehicles8.0%； retail208.1Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth8.0%, achieving continuous5Months8%The highest growth rate in the past two years is around.1-11Monthly cumulative retail growth rate-8.3%, compared to1-10Monthly cumulative growth rate-10.2%promote2Percentage points, reflecting the steady recovery trend of the industry. In addition,11Monthly retail of new energy vehicles16.9Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year increase9.7Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth rate136.5%, penetration rate of passenger car retail market8.0%Becoming the core driving force for the growth of passenger car retail.

　　操作建议：橡胶2105The contract shows that rubber is gradually strengthening and the market is expected to continue its upward trend in the later stage. Wang Decheng suggests a pullback in rubber14760-14860Interval batch entry and multiple order strategy, short-term attention15050and15120Stop profit protection, with good profit protection for the medium and long term, hold and amplify profits. In actual operation, investors make independent decisions and bear their own risks, profits, and losses independently.

     聚乙烯塑料：

　　【行情分析】：塑料2105合约周一冲高回落阴线报收7815(Last day's price)7955），短线给出回调信号，建议摸顶试空。

　　 现货市场价格方面，华北地区LLDPEPrice in7970-8100element/Tons, 华东地区价格在8200element/吨，华南地区价格在8200-8250element/吨。因投资者在乐观预计疫苗将刺激石油需求的同时，美国国会加紧谈判抗疫纾困协议，也振奋了市场情绪。不过美国石油钻井数继续增加和美元至跌，部分抑制涨幅。12month19日亚洲乙烯价格持平，CFR东北亚收价990dollar/ton;Outer discLLDPE美金价格下跌，CFR远东收价999dollar/吨。上游库存回落，港口库存有所回落，库存压力暂时不大。需求保持平稳，后市刚需为主。前期检修装置复产，以及新产能即将投放，供应压力渐增。随着供增需减，累库预期强烈，价格上方承压。

　　操作建议：守住7960设止损逢高试空，尾盘收低方可隔夜。

    豆粕：

　　【行情分析】：豆粕2105合约周一放量拉涨巨阳线报收3298(Last day's price)3189），形态属于突破，后市还将继续往上。

　　2.基本面：沿海豆粕价格3040-3180element/Ton20-50element/吨。中长期看，南美减产与收割推迟忧虑仍存，美豆出口前景较好。国内方面，12月到港依旧充裕，豆粕库存压力消化尚需时日。豆粕低位仍吸引一些成交，但预计难以放量。豆油库存较为稳定，买家追高意愿不强，高位成交不多，部分相对低位成交稍有增加

    操作建议：上周提示逢低试多的仓位注意设保护，新仓等待回调酌情低接。

    Written at the end of the article: Friends who work in futures know that futures are traded on a time share basis, at night11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For making goldcrude oilAs a trader, the author has always emphasized a state of investment: strict light position operation, strict stop loss, strict reduction of operation, not investing too much funds in trading, treating trading as a pastime. It doesn't matter if you lose or win every day, and it doesn't affect the normal operation of your family. In this way, even with the wind and waves blowing, you can still be better than idle walking, and there is no need to stay up late to read and analyze the market. Once the market fluctuates greatly, you will be jumpy, Don't ruin your health by not making a profit on your account.

   

     Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdckdj。