ZFXShanhai Securities: bottoming out and rebounding! Gold price returns4700USD!

Gold and silver prices continued to decline on Monday, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised trading margin requirements, intensifying market selling. spotgoldPlummet4.8%Reported per ounce4630.59The US dollar has fallen by about since its historical high set last week900The US dollar. But due to the US shutdown again, employment data may be delayed, and gold prices have rebounded. Tuesday (Beijing time)2month3In the morning session of the Asian market, spot gold was traded4734.70dollar/Near the ounce, return4700Above the US dollar.


1、 Multiple factors trigger a decline in gold prices

The sharp decline in gold this time was not caused by a single bearish sentiment, but by a perfect storm formed by multiple factors resonating in a short period of time.

Firstly, the subtle shift in policy expectations is the trigger. US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Board member Walsh to replace Powell as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Although Walsh was interpreted by the market as potentially inclined towards interest rate cuts after his nomination, his historical label as an "inflation hawk" and his remarks about implementing stricter balance sheet policies have raised concerns in the market about the potential marginal tightening of liquidity. The increasing uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's future policy path directly weakens some of the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against loose monetary policy.


Secondly, the exchange's sudden move intensified the sell-off. Chicago Mercantile Exchange announces price hike for precious metals after volatile price fluctuationsfuturesMargin requirements for trading. This risk control measure significantly increased the holding costs for short-term traders at a time when market sentiment was already fragile, forcing a large number of speculative long positions to close and exit, resulting in a "decline"-forced liquidation-The vicious cycle of 'further decline' has amplified the price drop.

Finally, the US dollar and market sentiment have fueled the situation. The US dollar index rose to a high point of over a week during this period, making gold denominated in US dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies and suppressing demand. At the same time, the severe fluctuations in the precious metal market have also triggered a broader risk aversion sentiment, with some funds flowing out of goldETFThe shift towards holding and observing further intensified selling pressure.

2、 The United States is once again shut down


local time30In the evening, the United States Senate71Vote in favor29The result of the vote against was passed1.2The trillion dollar remaining fiscal appropriations bill for multiple federal government departments has paved the way for Congress to avoid a prolonged government shutdown. But due to the fact that the House of Representatives is expected to wait until next Monday（2month2The meeting can only resume and a vote can be arranged on [date], and the relevant funding cannot complete the legislative process before the expiration of the existing budget authorization. The US federal government at local time1month31Entering a technical and partial shutdown state at midnight.

This means that from31Starting from midnight, some federal government agencies in the United States will be forced to suspend operations, non essential federal employees will temporarily take unpaid leave, and some government services may be delayed or interrupted. The expected duration of this shutdown is limited, but it still constitutes a technical shutdown in terms of procedures. This is the second partial shutdown of the US federal government since last year's record breaking shutdown.

3、 Today's Gold Technology Analysis


In terms of moving average system, the London daily gold line level is still in a short-term bearish position, but60Daily moving average（4480dollar/Forming strong support near ounces,2month2Daily gold price hits bottom4403The rapid rebound of the US dollar confirms the effectiveness of the support for this moving average in the short term5Day10The daily moving average is starting to level out, and the rebound momentum is gradually accumulating. If we can firmly establish ourselves in the clustering area of the moving average, it is expected to reverse the short-term weak pattern.

The oscillation indicator shows a repair signal, London gold daily lineRSIIndicator from oversold range in the early stage（32）Rebound to45Breaking away from oversold areas, the upward momentum is moderately released, but it has not yet entered a strong range;4Hour levelMACDThe green pillar continues to shrink,DIFFAndDEAThere are signs of forming a golden cross, with a significant decline in short-term downward momentum, and a gold needle bottoming out pattern at the hourly level, highlighting the strength of buying support. However, at the daily levelMACDStill maintaining a dead cross suggests that the momentum of the medium to long term bears has not completely dissipated, and a rebound requires the ability to cooperate with quantity.