Wang Decheng:21Analysis on the Futures Market of Japanese Rubber Methanol Coke Thread Steel Soybean Meal

           Wang Decheng:21Japanese rubber methanol coke thread steel soybean mealfuturesquotations analysis

　

   Rubber recommendation multiple orders perfect verification:

【 Market Suggestions 】 Today, rubber is strengthening and gaining momentum300Multiple point reporting14960Positive line market, rubber gradually strengthened and rose last week400Multiple point reporting14840Positive line market, passenger car production227.8Year-on-year growth of 10000 vehicles8.0%； retail208.1Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth8.0%, achieving continuous5Months8%The highest growth rate in the past two years is around.1-11Monthly cumulative retail growth rate-8.3%, compared to1-10Monthly cumulative growth rate-10.2%promote2Percentage points, reflecting the steady recovery trend of the industry. In addition,11Monthly retail of new energy vehicles16.9Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year increase9.7Ten thousand vehicles, year-on-year growth rate136.5%, penetration rate of passenger car retail market8.0%Becoming the core driving force for the growth of passenger car retail.

【 Operation suggestion 】 Rubber2105The contract shows that rubber is gradually strengthening and the market is expected to continue its upward trend in the later stage. Wang Decheng suggests a pullback in rubber14760-14860Interval batch entry and multiple order strategy, short-term attention15050and15120Stop profit protection, with good profit protection for the medium and long term, hold and amplify profits. In actual operation, investors make independent decisions and bear their own risks, profits, and losses independently.

Methanol2105Contract bulls in good form:

【 Market Analysis 】: On the previous trading day, the spot price in Jiangsu increased, and the spot discount was the main futures. Last Friday, coastal and mainland prices continued to rise, with a stronger basis and an increase in import CIF prices; On the one hand, the import cost of methanol and domestic costs are relatively strong support, with gas restrictions starting in the southwest and limited gas production reduction in the Middle East in the later stage. New methanol production capacity may be delayed. On the other hand, East China's olefins have negative profits, and most of the mainland's supply of goods has arbitrage space, and some of the delivery and pricing rights will be transferred to the mainland in the later stage; At present, the valuation of methanol is on the high side, with strong driving forces. The high US dollar price, domestic and foreign gas restriction expectations, and olefin demand still support market optimism, and may continue to experience strong volatility in the short term.

Methanol lowered its negative line today and showed a volatile adjustment within the day. From a morphological perspective, methanol fluctuates upwards, breaking the weekly limit and rising, with a clear bullish trend. Today, methanol fluctuated and adjusted mainly, but did not exit an effective market. The combination of moving averages presents a multi headed arrangement, paying attention to10Daily moving average support.MACDAbove the kinetic energy column, the bulls showed weakness. Overall, the trend of methanol bulls is obvious, but their performance is weak. Last week, I have been recommending multiple orders of methanol to everyone, but the performance did not meet my expectations and there was no sustained upward trend. In theory, a weekly level break like this should be pulled up one high point a day, and methanol performance is too hesitant. Of course, trading requires a bit of patience. The bulls' mentality remains unchanged and they continue to monitor future performance.

【 Operation suggestion 】: Methanol breaks the limit and rises, with a good bullish form. Continue to hold multiple orders. Follow Below2400Support, attention from above2700、3000Target bit.

Coke hitting the limit up market:

Market Analysis: Today's Strong Boost of Coke180Report at around o'clock2841In the area of the limit up board, last week's strong push up of coke led to an uptrend70Report at around o'clock2660From a supply perspective, the trend of the Dayang Line shows that safety inspections continue at the domestic end. Due to safety accidents, some coal mines have stopped and restricted production. As the end of the year approaches, safety inspections have increased, with domestic large mines focusing on ensuring safety production, while domestic production has decreased. Therefore, under the current demand for replenishment, coal mine inventory remains low and the procurement atmosphere is positive. Recently, the import side has been affected by the tightening of epidemic prevention and control measures at the China Mongolia ports, resulting in a decrease in customs clearance vehicles. At the same time, due to the impact of winter weather, customs clearance may continue to remain low in the future, and coal prices in Mongolia may continue to rise.

【 Operation suggestion 】 Coke2105The overall form of contracts and coke tends to rebound and adjust the market trend. The overall trend of the daily and weekly lines is expected to continue to rise, and Wang Decheng suggests a pullback2815Support the strategy of entering multiple orders in batches above, please note2855and2874Stop profits and reduce positions in batches, and investors independently bear the risk of profit and loss.

Threaded steel prompts multiple orders to block the limit up board:

【 Market Analysis 】 Today's Strong Rise of Thread Steel200Point sealing4460In the form of limit up board, last week's strong strength of rebar saw a significant increase140Report at around o'clock4316In the form of a large positive line, steel gradually exhibits off-season characteristics and a trade flow of "North materials moving south" will occur. Entering this year11After the middle of the month, the terminal demand for threaded steel began to weaken seasonally, and high-frequency demand indicators all fell from high levels. The latest apparent demand for thread steel is390.6410000 tons, compared to11Mid month high point drop16%Last week's month on month (MoM) growth was mainly due to strong prices stimulating a rebound in speculative demand, and sustainability was not strong. At the same time, the operating rate and shipment rate of cement mills nationwide have decreased respectively10.73Percentage points and12.36The decline has significantly expanded in the past two weeks, with an absolute value lower than the same period last year. Overall, the demand for building materials and steel will still weaken seasonally. The market has optimistic expectations for the peak demand for threaded steel in the first half of next year based on the resilience of real estate and good infrastructure, and in the weak reality of threaded steel2105The contract rose strongly. However, we believe that optimistic expectations of demand may be falsified. Under the constraints of the "three red lines", the financing environment for real estate enterprises is tightening, and new construction and land purchases will be suppressed. Moreover, high-frequency data has been verified,11month100The year-on-year decrease in land transaction area in major cities37.6%The demand for strength and toughness of real estate steel needs to be tracked.

[Operation Strategy] Threaded Steel2105Contract, rebar volume backwash upward trend, daily level is expected to rebound and increase market trend, Wang Decheng suggests rebar callback4418-4442Interval batch entry and multi order strategy, short-term attention4476and4496Batch stop profit protection, with medium to long term holdings mainly focused on expanding profits. Investors make independent decisions in actual operations, independently bear risks and bear their own profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only. We do not have any related responsibility for your trading profits or losses based on our judgment of the futures market.

Soybean meal surged as expected and won perfectly:

【 Basic 】 Today's strong rise in soybean meal120Multiple point reporting3298In the Dayang Line area, soybean meal strongly boosted the rally last week60Multiple point reporting3188The trend of the big positive line is that overseas, the sales of soybeans in the United States have slowed down, and domestic crushing is good, causing price fluctuations under pressure; The precipitation situation in Brazilian production areas varies, and the air temperature is slightly lower than the average; Argentina's soybean production is expected to decrease, while squeezing has also decreased. On the domestic side,12Continue to maintain monthly soybean shipments to Hong Kong900A level of over ten thousand tons; The profit from spot soybean squeezing is good, and the amount of soybean squeezing has rebounded; The decrease in soybean meal inventory will also slow down; The demand for live pigs decreased month on month; The inventory of poultry has declined; The demand for freshwater fish farming is weak.

[Operation Strategy] Soybean Meal2105The current daily level of soybean meal is gradually under pressure, and the overall trend is expected to continue to decline. Wang Decheng suggests that soybean meal rise3260-3282Interval batch entry empty order operation concept, short-term strategy3310and3328Stop profits and reduce positions separately, and investors make independent decisions in actual operations, independently assuming risks and assuming their own profits and losses.

  Written at the end of the article: Friends who work in futures know that futures are traded on a time share basis, at night11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For doinggoldcrude oilAs a trader, the author has always emphasized a state of investment: strict light position operation, strict stop loss, strict reduction of operation, not investing too much funds in trading, treating trading as a pastime. It doesn't matter if you lose or win every day, and it doesn't affect the normal operation of your family. In this way, even with the wind and waves blowing, you can still be better than idle walking, and there is no need to stay up late to read and analyze the market. Once the market fluctuates greatly, you will be jumpy, Don't ruin your health by not making a profit on your account.

   

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdckdj。