Liang Qiandong8.11Gold and SilverTD触底，原油多空徘徊，今日走势预测及布局策略

　　一涨一跌引动市场风云，一阴一阳带起波澜壮阔，股市，汇市，gold，crude oilThe fate of the market is controlled by such a smallKIn the line chart, how many people are ecstatic or sad about its ups and downs, ups and downs? People outside the circle will never understand why such a small ghost like talisman is so magical, and people will never want to give up when they touch it. Because of its uncertainty, one yin and one yang are randomly arranged, and one rise and one fall are wayward. It is never possible to perfectly control each trend because of its imperfection, and the long and short trends constantly shuttle, One party is happy while the other is worried. After singing from multiple parties, the empty side appears, presenting a colorful scene. Perhaps this is why we are attracted by it and willing to put in energy for it. Even if we cannot obtain the desired profit, we are unwilling to give up time and are unwilling to give up, right?
　　
Returning to the original intention, you are only struggling in the market for a profit, but I am diligent in my work before the market because of a "fate". With fate, we can meet each other, but without fate, we can travel far and wide. If you travel thousands of miles, I will send you off, and if you come to my side, I will help you. The market profit is very high, and I am willing to do my best to score nine points for you alone. My strength gives me this confidence. Qinghai Changyun is a dark snow mountain, and if you don't break through Loulan, you will never return. June has already begun, and opportunities are fleeting. Let's take a look at today's trading strategy first
　
Analysis of the trend of spot gold market:
　　
Message: Monday（8month10日），美元指数盘中窄幅震荡，短线有些企稳迹象，但上周五的反弹并不意味着近期疲软的结束。现货黄金延续上周五跌势，美国非农数据表现靓丽帮助美元反弹，令部分黄金多头获利了结离场。另一方面，此前黄金涨势过快，短期存在回调的空间。本周华尔街分析师对于黄金看空和看多的人数相当，暗示短时间黄金走势胶着，预计黄金短时间将在2015-2075区间内震荡。基本面看，投资者正密切关注美国国会就抗疫援助计划的磋商，目前两党尚未能就财政刺激措施的规模达成协议。
　　
　　技术面：黄金从日线上来看，冲高回落；布林带开口，金价连续第二个交易日走低，上周四一度升至2075.47，续刷历史高位。MACD金叉、红柱能量小幅削弱，KDJ高位死叉、指数高于80。金价短线可能会有回调风险，但整体仍维持乐观看涨。高位回落；四小时级别来看，金价续刷纪录高点后小幅回落，目前位于布林带中轨附近。MACD死叉、绿柱能量增强，KDJDead cross, index below40。从走势来看，黄金短线有下行风险。短线有下跌风险，但整体仍以看涨为主，激进者可等待回调后逢低谨慎做多。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上梁乾东个人建议以回调做多为主，上方短期重点关注2055-2060Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2020-2015Frontline support.
　　
Latest operating suggestions for gold:
　　
　　1The rebound above the gold does not break2043-2045Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target2030-2028frontline;
　　
　　2Under the gold, it cannot be broken by stepping back2015-2017Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target2032-2034frontline;
　　
Analysis of the trend of spot silver market:
　　
　　消息面：全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，到8month7日时止持仓量相比8month6日减持了43.45吨。美元指数目前仍然在92.50支撑附近徘徊，短线上MACD双线在低位形成金叉与92.50点支撑形成技术面共振，短线上美元指数可能会迎来反弹，从而会影响黄金、白银的近期走势。美国7月份非农数据显示：非农就业人口增加了176.3万人，从而在短期上提振了美元指数的反弹。但是美国当前的疫情并没有得到好转，也没有得到有效控制。
　　
　　技术面：本周的白银波动还是挺迅速的，不过也仅仅只是在开盘的那一个小时里面。早间的国际白银平行开盘在29.157，盘初小幅下滑至28.9 ，然后才止跌回转，目前行情震荡在29.3附近。从状态上看，29.8属于盘内行情的一个强力多空分界点，目前承担了一部分的反弹压力。第二个点美元周初出现了继续反弹的动作，这一定程度上制约了金银市场的看涨信心，出于担忧之下必然有一定的了结行为。总结来看:今日的白银依旧延续着周一的状态在走，暂时的下滑必然要去以阻力试探来测试动能情况，当前29.5附近就是一道阻力点，也是今天行情的强弱分界。牛市情绪的变化决定了本周白银的表现,综合来看梁乾东建议今日白银短线操作上：上方阻力关注29.7-29.55，下方支撑重点关注28.5-28.3,具体操作建议需要根据具体走势来定给出。
　　
　　futuresAnalysis of crude oil market trend:
　　
　　消息面：油价周一收高，因数据显示中国工厂活动正逐步恢复到大流行前的水平，以及有迹象显示能源需求增加，美国有望就新一轮新冠疫情经济刺激方案达成协议。总统在推特上说，国会民主党高层希望就与他会面，讨论新冠疫情经济救助问题，这也扶助支撑油价。道明证券全球大宗商品策略主管说，价格受到“持续风险偏好”的支撑，至少华盛顿方面发出信号，暗示经济刺激方案即将出台的可能性越来越大。
　　
　　技术面：：原油继续回归区间震荡内，突破42.5后没能站稳此位之上，此前的区间仍未有效突破，日线继续在区间整理当中，周线形态收盘比较胶着，每次试探性的冲高都被拍回原形，但是也没进行二次打底，而是横向整理当中。上周原油上涨至最高点在43.5附近，但回落空间也比较大，周五晚间快速冲高受制42关口连续走低，小时线连阴回落下行至41关口弱势报收，整体了一个先涨后空状态，冲高后回调的得空间比较大，短线多头持续性不足，仍有点震荡的迹象。近期原油走势不能一味以多头对待，虽然整体价格上涨，但进场位置依旧十分关键，今日操作上需密切留意上周五低点41关口支撑企稳力度，上方压力42.3附近，突破有望日线收阳。综合来看，原油今日短线操作短线思路上梁乾东个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注43.0-43.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below41.0-40.5Frontline support.
　　
Latest operating recommendations for crude oil:
　　
　　1The rebound above the crude oil does not break42.8-43.0Short on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target42.0-41.8frontline;
　　
　　2Unable to break under the crude oil41.0-41.2Long on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target42.0-42.2frontline;
　　The primary principle of investment is to avoid risks. If risks cannot be avoided, any amount of money earned will one day be returned. Every person's success has its own methods, and investment trading must also have its principles. The foundation of trading is to accumulate small gains and fight against large gains. However, many people forget their original intention and prioritize their interests, yet hang risks on the wall. They are unaware of the fragility and insignificance of individuals in the market. If they do not understand how to avoid risks, they are like a small boat sailing in the sea, ready to be overturned at any time by the wind and waves. Stop loss is a topic we often talk about, but there are always people who touch the red line. Reversing the trend is the acceleration of death, but there are always people who use their lifelong beliefs to carry it to the end. When success falls short and the situation is difficult to recover, many people cannot accept the result of short positions and desperate situations, but still cannot remember not setting a stop loss. Errors can happen at any time, and temptation is everywhere. Without rules, there is no square. This rule is the red line, and this rule is an invisible trap. If a trader opens their trading records and identifies the trades that caused them losses, and summarizes the reasons, it indicates that they are close to profitability.