Zhihao Dianjin:3.22黄金持续震荡筑底？周初黄金原油走势分析及布局

International SpotgoldFriday(3month20day)触低反弹，日内最高触及1515.82dollar/盎司，但之后涨幅缩减，重返1500美元关口下方。全球各主要央行开始协同合作，试图增加美元流动性并降低美元的升值压力，这有助于稳定市场。同时股市有所反弹，这令市场的保证金需求暂时稳定，从而帮助部分资金在避险需求的驱使下返回黄金市场。
　　
　　国际金价日内在美元下修的过程中，获得短暂的舒缓。分析师表示，尽管黄金日内出现反弹，但仍预期周线录得连续第二周收阴，因疫情恐慌下的避险需求仍涌入美元。对于日内黄金的反弹，这很明显是风险对冲的购买。随着全球政府和央行纷纷给出宽松政策，债券市场近期也遭遇了疯狂，进一步施压到了黄金。这些现象再次证明，美元仍是“避险之王”。
　　
　　下周公布的所有其他宏观经济数据将再次退居次要地位。尽管如此，下周二公布的制造业PMI和新屋销售、下周三公布的耐用品和房价指数、下周四公布的第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)以及下周五公布的个人消费价格指数(PCE)等关键数据仍值得关注。
　　
　　志豪点金个人观点：目前来看，因为疫情在国际方面的爆发，导致全球皆爆发了降息热潮，以美联储为主导，美当前利率可说是已经降到了零利率了，美联储主席也在当下表示不会进一步降息至负利率。从这一点来看，因为降息对黄金的影响期在当下也就已经彻底结束了。除非后市美联储进一步大幅降息，不然无法做到像之前那般为黄金提供上涨动能。毕竟在当下的话，延续降息的可能性几乎是零，真要到疫情缓解，那么后市美联储利率纪要的变动要么就是维持利率不变，要么就是加息，不管是前者还是后者，只要不降息，相对也就无法为黄金提供动能，后者甚至会进一步打压黄金。
　　
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Analysis of the gold market trend next Monday:
　　
　　目前技术面来看技术面来看日线上看，逐步转阳，可以视作为对前两日下探回升行情的反驳，此次的阳线大概率只是一个开始，毕竟目前的行情已经突破了均线并且企稳，反复试探低点但是不破低点，行情再度带动着均线向上运行，并且出现了久违的三连阳拉升，这是近两周都没有出现过的形态，此前的行情时不断破低然后反弹，而今日的反弹在没有出现破低的情况，且在1450一带形成双底向上反弹，这就就必须去跟随趋势去看这波多头，小时线方面横盘反复后开始回落，弱势行情是直接下破，而不是横盘筑造台阶再去下跌，这里的下跌我们暂时定义为行情此次反弹的修正，1450-1520nearby70美金的反弹空间，回撤一半都不算太过分。
　　
　　周线级别上经过5浪上涨，结构完成，当前开启的是修正浪从走势上来看，黄金跌至1450区域，作为修正浪，跌幅已经足够，即便再次下跌最多在1400区域就会见底！从最近美股依然暴跌和黄金在1450区域获得支撑就可以看出！我们同样参考08年金融危机时的黄金走势，黄金在次贷危机时作为避险货币也是跌了几百美金，但是在恐慌过后，市场重回理性，随后黄金拉出历史新高！当前的走势完全复制此前的行情，虽然当前黄金的下跌没有结束，但是在未来我们可以预知的是，还会有新高出现！从短线上来看，黄金在4小时级别上处于日线1450区域的支撑，也是此前黄金上涨过程中的盘整区域！虽然昨日黄金早盘跌至1450区域，随后快速拉升，美盘再次下挫，但是在1480区域获得支撑后反弹！当前黄金阶段性底部形态，下周黄金预计是探底反弹的走势，第一步测试1535压力位置，震荡过后有反弹测试1580区域的可能！综合来看：下周一短线操作思路上志豪点金个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1515-1517Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1480-1482Frontline support.
　　
　　下周一黄金操作策略参考：
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Gold rebound1515-1517Short (buy down) two tenths of a position nearby, stop loss4Points, target1500-1490Nearby. Break the position to see1480frontline;
　　
Multiple order strategy:
　　
Gold Callback1480-1482Nearby long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss4Points, target1500-1510Nearby, break down and take a look1515frontline;
　　
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Next Mondaycrude oilFundamental and technical analysis:
　　
　　原油方面，就当前原油的走势而言，再谈技术面分析，已经不具备太大的参考意义；周五，原油价格在震荡的交易中大幅下跌，世界主要石油生产国正在努力适应市场几十年来最大的危机，而石油价格又经历了一周的巨大损失。美原油周五下跌3.28美元，跌幅近13%Report22.63dollar/桶。本周，美国原油基准价格下跌了29%，延续了上周23%的跌幅。俄罗斯表示，在与沙特的对峙中“不会退缩”，在周五的交易中，美原油最初跌逾7%但在纽约午后稍早，WTI缩减了亏损，此前行业公司贝克休斯报告称，美国活跃的石油钻探平台本周减少19个，至664个。尽管钻机数是一个滞后指标，但它是美国原油产量最可靠的预测指标之一。
　　
　　周五早间提过日线生命线29.2一带是比较重要的压力点，行情如期给到回落，日内给出的27.4-27.6一带做空也是如期获利20-40美金的空间，目前技术面来看行情依旧还是有承压回落迹象，要再次接力上涨需修复缺口到位，要多也需要等到20支撑稳住后再考虑，综合来看，下周一操作思路上志豪点金个人建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅；上方关注27.5-28.0Resistance, pay attention below22.0-23.0Support!
　　
　　下周一原油操作策略参考：
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Above the rebound of crude oil27.5-28.0Short selling nearby(Buy down), two tenths of a position, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target24.0-23.0Nearby; Dislocation22.0Near.
　　
Multi order strategy:
　　
Below the crude oil correction21.8-22.0Nearby long (buy up), 2/10 positions, stop loss0.4USD, target23.0-24.0Nearby; Dislocation25.0Near.
　　
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