Zhou Hongjin:3.15黄金物极必反，原油适度止血-下周黄金原油行情走势预判及策略

Summary:gold行情走势、黄金交易策略、黄金行情解析、crude oilTrend analysis and crude oil operation suggestions
　　投资交易如同做人，选择大于努力，不论是交易方向的选择，投资方法的选择，还是老师的选择都至关重要，不能带你盈利的都是夸夸其谈，诚恳走一生，虚情假意将永远被唾弃，是金子总会发光，鱼龙混杂的市场，吹嘘得来的认可，总会原形毕露，唯有坚持写出对投资者有用的分析，能让投资者少走点弯路，学到技巧与知识，少错一单，那么我相信日久见人心。
　　刚刚过去的一周，金融市场可谓“血雨腥风”狂暴席卷，似乎和以往任何一次都不一样，这周金融市场的震荡超乎想象。在新冠肺炎疫情全球加速蔓延之际，市场恐慌情绪不断升温，投资者疯狂出逃市场，全球所有金融资产包括避险贵金属一度遭遇无差别抛售而全面崩跌。美国股市暴跌并触发史上第三次“熔断”，全球多国股市也均遭“血洗”并多次触发“熔断”，这导致多国采取紧急举措禁止卖空以遏制市场崩跌势头。在此背景下，全球央行早已如“热锅蚂蚁”，美联储、英国央行和加拿大央行纷纷紧急大降息，中国央行推出定向降准举措，释放长期资金5500亿元。其他央行也推出大幅降息或其他重磅刺激举措，以期“挽救”疫情之下的经济冲击。然而，目前看来，这些刺激举措恍如“隔靴搔痒”，对市场的影响也比较有限。另外，本周突如其来的沙俄“石油战”引发原油市场崩跌，本周油价跌创2008year12月以来最大单周跌幅，但美国总统川普宣布购买储备原油，这令原油多头获得些许安慰。但本周油价的崩跌已然引发全球市场“蝴蝶效应”，在新冠肺炎疫情不断削弱原油需求的背景下，沙俄石油大战加剧了市场恐慌，周中一度引发市场全面巨震。
　　下周重磅事件和数据前瞻：
　　接下来的一周，投资者显然需要继续重点关注欧美国家疫情的相关消息，这在过去一段时间对全球金融市场产生了重大冲击，其次，需要留意全球央行和各国政府的相关动作，尤其是接下来的一周将迎来美联储利率决议和日本央行利率决议，需要予以关注；此外，投资者需要对一些经济数据予以留意，比如中国1-2月规模以上工业增加值年率、英国2月就业数据和美国2月的零售销售数据。

　　

1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，现货黄金完美的上演了“物极必反”的自然法则，在美元大跌之际，金价一度顶破1700Gateway, creating2012Since the end of the year, it has reached a new high1703.39dollar/Ounces, but due to factors such as long profit taking, margin demand triggered by a sharp drop in the stock market, and a significant rebound in the US dollar, the daily gold price recorded five consecutive negative days, with a cumulative decline of nearly200USD, lowest touch1504.78dollar/Ounces, closing1529.83dollar/Ounces, weekly decline of8.6%, for1983The largest weekly decline since the beginning of the year.
　　
　　技术面来看，现货周五暴跌，一度跌逾90USD, refreshing last year12month26Since the low point of the day1504.78dollar/Ounces, gold prices plummeted this week8.6%, recorded1983The largest weekly decline since the beginning of the year, with the daily chart recording five consecutive negative days,MACDDead fork after top deviation,KDJDead fork,5Daily moving average underpass10The daily moving average has formed a dead cross, and gold prices have continuously fallen below multiple moving averages and the Bollinger Line. Bears have clearly gained the upper hand, reaching a low point on Friday1504.78This is currently the initial support below, followed by1500Integer level,200The daily moving average is supported by1497.45Nearby, further support at2019year12month23Daily high point1486.22Nearby, there is a dense trading area at this location with relatively strong support. If the position is accidentally missed, a new downward channel will be opened; However, due to the significant short-term decline in gold prices, andKDJofJ”The value is severely oversold, if the gold price persists1500At the integer level, one needs to be cautious of the possibility of fluctuations, rebounds, and adjustments,100Daily moving average1535.45It is currently the initial resistance above,1month21Resistance at daily low points1546.41Nearby, further resistance55Daily moving average1583.53附近，若收复该位置，则削弱短线看空信号；综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金（zh66646）My personal suggestion is to prioritize high altitude and prioritize low altitude;
　　
Focus on resistance above:1535.45；1546.41；
　　
Focus on support below:1500.00；1497.45；
　　
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2、 Analysis of the trend of US crude oil
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，由于沙特和俄罗斯爆发激烈的原油价格战，本周油价跌幅创2008year12月以来最大单周跌幅，但美国总统川普宣布购买储备原油，这令油价在周五适度止血。美国WTI原油本周暴跌23%Report31.73dollar/桶，当周最低触及27.34dollar/桶；上周末沙特打响石油战，油价在周一（3month9日）一度崩跌超30%。时隔逾20年之后，3month7日沙特祭出惊人动作，全面发动全球原油价格战：首先，沙特大幅降低售往欧洲、远东和美国等国外的市场的原油价格，折扣幅度创逾20年来最大，以吸引国外炼油厂购买沙特原油。
　　
　　技术面来看，在美国总统川普表示美国将填补战略石油储备后，油价大幅收涨，但仍录得自2008年全球金融危机以来最差单周表现，日线KDJ有重新结成金叉的迹象，油价收复布林线下轨和5日均线，短线看空信号有所减弱，目前上方初步阻力在周五高点33.87附近，进一步较强阻力在本周高点36.34Nearby,2012year8month2Resistance at daily low points39.19附近（该位置靠近10日均线）；3month6Resistance at daily low points41.05附近，若顶破该位置，则削弱短线看空信号；由于全球卫生事件的持续影响，主要出口国沙特及其盟友计划向市场注入创纪录水平的石油供应；供应和需求同时受到严重冲击的罕见情况，已导致油市崩盘，且MACD市场信号延续，均线依然空头排列，油价后市仍然偏向震荡下行；初步支撑在布林线下轨31.27附近，让后是30整数关口，周一低点支撑在27.34Nearby,2016年低点支撑在26.05Nearby; Then there is2003year5Monthly low point25.04附近；考虑到多数产油国的成本价在该位置附近，进一步下破的难度较大。综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金（zh66646）My personal suggestion is to prioritize high altitude and prioritize low altitude;
　　
Focus on resistance above:33.87；36.34；
　　
Focus on support below:31.27；30.00；
　　
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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
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　　投资的首要原则是规避风险，如果不能规避风险，那么赚再多的钱，有一天都会还回去，任何一个人的成功都有其方法，而投资交易也必有其原则，积少成多、以小搏大是交易的根本。而有很多人却忘记了初衷，把利益看在眼前，却把风险挂在墙上，熟不知在市场当中，个人是多少的脆弱，多么的渺小，若不懂的规避风险，就像航行在大海的一只小船，随时会被风浪打翻。解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资趋势，对黄金、原油投资有兴趣却无从下手或者已经在接触却并不理想的朋友，订阅关注“周鸿金”（zh66646）Get the latest financial information, daily market trend analysis, real-time trading strategies, and medium to long term layout.
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