MEXGroup： 20200310Weekly trading strategy

In terms of the commodity market, it is unlikely that the market's risk aversion will cool down. The economic concerns caused by the epidemic and the wave of monetary easing will contribute togoldEstablishing an overall upward pattern; However, the Saudi oil price war cannot become a sustained driving force for gold's upward trend, which will result in the possibility of gold price increases brought about by oil market hedging or facing a backlash. Overall, hedging remains the theme of this week, but there is a risk of short-term sell-off in gold prices after a surge or due to a lack of liquidity in global assets, with a clear suppression above gold prices1720, supported below1620。

In terms of oil prices, influenced by the oil price war initiated by Saudi Arabia, oil prices have reappeared and outperformed2014With the current situation, the price war is ongoing and it is difficult to say the bottom of oil prices. However, traders need to closely monitor whether the event brings a turning point, or whether there is a huge seismic risk caused by speculative sentiment in the details of fluctuations. Overall, we believe thatcrude oil（WTI）We will maintain a downward trend in the ongoing price war, and we will follow them one by one below2016Year2011、2008At the low point of the year, traders should do a better job in risk control, especially under unconventional market conditions.

In the foreign exchange market, since the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut last week, the market's expectations for another rate cut in the latter half of this month remain unchanged. In addition, with concerns about the domestic epidemic in the United States, the overall safe haven of the US dollar is still downward, but attention should be paid to the risk of rebound after oversold. The Canadian dollar may continue to weaken this week due to the drag of oil prices, while the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, both commodity currencies, are also seen as weak. However, due to their indirect impact on oil prices, there may be a rebound opportunity after the decline, but expectations should not be too high. In European currencies, the market is concerned about the ECB's interest rate cut10The expectation of one basis point has been digested, so if the interest rate is cut as scheduled this week, the euro may slightly fall but the decline is not significant. As the UK side is boosted by the positive negotiations between the UK and Europe, the value of the UK's anti epidemic materials is relatively sufficient, and the trend of the pound is relatively optimistic this week.

Quantitative trading strategy

MEXQuantitative strategy2019Year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering leverage,MEXThe quantitative strategy still outperforms the target significantly. For detailed combination construction methods and backtesting, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7Currency hedging portfolio

》。组合净值上周从历史新高回调1.10%This week's combination and as of Beijing time3month9day08:50The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).

stock market indexprospect

In terms of stock indices, affected by the global stock market crash, Hong Kong stocks have suffered a linked decline, and there is still room for downward testing in the short term. However, due to the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in China, the domestic stock market may experience positive results in the future, and Hong Kong stocks may also benefit from it and strengthen. Technically focused2019year4month15Starting from todayAB=CDAfter the structure is completed, a multi head layout can be carried out appropriately.

Main currency pairs

Europe/Beauty（EURUSD）

Although Europe has also been affected by the epidemic, the market has already digested it a lot in the early stage, and the current focus is on the pessimistic expectations of the United States. Therefore, the euro has also taken the opportunity to recover its previous downward space; Make the market aware that the European Central Bank may10The expectation of a single point interest rate cut has also been digested, so if the news falls but the magnitude of the decline is uncertain, there is still short-term bullish space for the euro. However, we need to be cautious of the euro exchange rate risk caused by the rebound of the US index.

On the technical side, we emphasized the bearish trend of the euro half a month ago and joined the rebound. Currently, it is still in a rebound. If2018year6month10Starting from the day of decline61.8%（1.1437）If the position breaks, the rebound will continue, and the bearish rebound will face technical downside risks.

Pound/beautiful(GBPUSD)

Although the UK has also been affected by the epidemic, due to its relatively abundant resources, its ability to resist the epidemic is relatively strong; In addition, although the market's expectation for the Bank of England's interest rate cut has reached 100%, it has also been greatly digested by the market; Moreover, the market's bearish sentiment towards the pound in the Anglo European negotiations has been temporarily suspended as the negotiations improve, and in contrast, the pound lacks a bearish reason.

Technically speaking, the pound is attempting to break through the upper track of the downward channel, and if this move is successful, it will retest last year12month13Daily high point.

beautiful/Day（USDJPY）

Despite the loss of the safe haven function of the US dollar, the Japanese yen remains a classic safe haven asset, and the act of buying Japanese yen remains unabated; In addition, in terms of monetary policy, the Bank of Japan has less room for easing than the Federal Reserve, which makes it more cost-effective to buy yen.

Technically, the USD/JPY ratio2019year8month26The day is a period of overall upward trend, and currently the price has reversed and fallen below this starting point. If we need to return to the bullish trend, we will at least test Fibonacci in this upward trend161.8%Location, i.e100.000Location.

Australia/Beauty（AUDUSD）

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the Australian dollar has continuously digested the pessimistic expectations of the market, and with the improvement of the epidemic in China, the Australian dollar is beginning to rebound after oversold; The current Saudi oil price war has brought about a negative impact on the linkage of commodities, which has suppressed the Australian dollar. However, due to the lower crude oil ratio compared to AustraliaGDPGrowth momentum may rebound after a short-term downturn.

On a technical level, the Australian dollar2018year9month30The trend line support from the beginning of the day remains strong. In the short term, the downward trend has disrupted the rebound structure that started last week, and it may be necessary to rebuild the momentum to build a new rebound structure in the future. In terms of operation, the focus is on the formation of the rebound structure.

Newtonian/Beauty（NZSUSD）

The New Zealand dollar, like the Australian dollar, has continuously digested the pessimistic expectations of the market since the outbreak of the epidemic. With the improvement of the epidemic in China, it has begun to rebound after oversold; The current Saudi oil price war has brought about a negative impact on the linkage of commodities, and the New Zealand dollar has also been suppressed, but due to the fact that the crude oil ratio is not in line with New Zealand'sGDPGrowth momentum may rebound after a short-term downturn.

Technically speaking, the decline on Monday morning also disrupted the rebound structure built by the New Zealand dollar last week. We need to gather momentum to rebuild it in the future, so we need to pay attention to it in the future0.6080The price is2month12Starting from the day of the exhibition line100%Support, if this price does not break, it will bring new rebound momentum to the New Zealand dollar.

beautiful/Add（USDCAD）

Affected by the Saudi oil price war, the Canadian dollar continues to weaken, and unless there is a turning point in related events, the weakness of the Canadian dollar will be difficult to reverse.

Technically, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar has broken through the bearish candlestick that rose earlier this year61.8%、100%Structural suppression, currently facing direct pressure161.8%Short term bulls can reduce their holdings appropriately, but traders need to remember that pressure is used to break through, so testing the USD/CAD ratio will not be ruled out2016Annual high point.

commodity market

Gold（XAU）

There is little possibility of a cooling off in the short-term market risk aversion sentiment, and the economic concerns caused by the epidemic and the wave of monetary easing will establish an overall upward trend for gold; However, the Saudi oil price war cannot become a sustained driving force for gold's upward trend, which will result in the possibility of gold price increases brought about by oil market hedging or facing a backlash. Overall, hedging remains the theme of this week, but there is a risk of short-term sell-off in gold prices after a surge or due to a lack of liquidity in global assets,

Technically, we need to pay attention to last year11month1Japan and Japan4month21The expansion line formed on a daily basis100%Suppress the range, which is a bullish and promising target for gold price fluctuations; However, traders also need to pay attention to the correction requirements for the downward trend displayed by the upward hanging line of small level continuous gains, and be careful not to let the price, although slightly upward, fluctuate in a huge way. Please pay attention below1620Support.

Crude oil（WTI）

Affected by the oil price war initiated by Saudi Arabia, oil prices have reappeared and outperformed2014With the current situation, the price war is ongoing and it is difficult to say the bottom of oil prices. However, traders need to closely monitor whether the event brings a turning point, or whether there is a huge seismic risk caused by speculative sentiment in the details of fluctuations. Remind traders to take better risk control measures in unconventional market conditions.

The technical aspect has temporarily lost its significance in the crude oil market, and the main downward trend is under the continuous price war. Please pay attention to it in the following order2016Year2011、2008The annual low point, but traders need to recognize that they can only open new bearish ranges after the support level breaks.

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