MEXDa Tong: Daily Technical Report - Difficulty in Reducing Risk Upgrades A turning point for gold may be reached within the day

MEX

prospect

goldOn the one hand, the current global interest rate cut by central banks has brought core upward momentum to gold, and from a fundamental perspective, it mostly points to bullish positions. However, our only concern is that the current Fed rate cut has not met the market's appetite. The market is currently anticipating further Fed rate cuts, and there may still be more cash left in the market for liquidity before that, which cannot be anticipated2008During the year, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and gold stocks fell together, but at least they had no defense, so they broke through in price1700Previously, it was still recommended that gold maintain a cautious attitude, and whether gold opens up new space or is still stuck in a pullback trend, today's non-agricultural data may also become an important turning point.

crude oilIn terms of aspects, although OPEC+The outcome of the meeting has not yet been officially announced, but there have been rumors of production cuts from now on15010000 barrels/The news from Japan is equivalent to deepening the previous production reduction3010000 barrels/On the day, the reduction in production is relatively small, which is also the main factor for the short-term decline in oil prices. However, the resumption of work and production in China may lead to a rebound in crude oil demand. Therefore, even if the deepening of production reduction is not significant, it remains to be seen whether it can reach a new low. We believe that the strategy of a possible rebound in oil prices is still effective and has reached a key strategic layout point.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index has once again broken through97The checkpoint is currently clearly supported by the96.4Nearby, this point will determine whether the US index can further open up downward space or rebound and repair. What needs to be paid attention to is the euro. The retaliatory rebound caused by the comparative advantage of short-term economic data has come to an end. We still believe that the market will focus again on the European epidemic and expectations of interest rate cuts in the future, and the euro may start a downward trend; The commodity currency has received some support under the interest rate cut, and the cooperation of China's resumption of work and production has also played a significant role in promoting it. It is expected to continue in the short term, but the overall situation cannot be overly optimistic.

MEX

viewpoint

XAUUSD(

gold)

Data source:MEX Markets

brace1 : 1641  brace2:1606  

resistance1 : 1674  resistance2: 1690

The fundamental factors are all pointing towards bullish gold, but the market has already bet that the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in this month's meeting minutes may lead the market to continue holding more cash flow to face current liquidity risks, until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, which may still limit the rise of gold.

Technically1662The previous price increase was basically in line with our expectations, but the price has already broken through this point, which will bring an end to the previous period2month24The recent decline has brought greater possibilities, so the overall trend is biased towards a bullish one; However, since the beginning of this week, the upward trend has been small5Wave fluctuations,1674Location is3The expansion of space by waves61.8%Suppress, breaking at this point may lead to1690For testing, if the pressure falls back, attention can be paid to the neck line support of the head and shoulder structure first.

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