Zhihao Dianjin:3.2黄金原油震荡上行还会跌吗？晚间黄金原油分析布局

　周一（3month2Daily Spotgold走高，收复1600美元关口。现货黄金现报1600.68USD, increase0.95%。上周五因市场抛售以产生流动性和保证金，黄金大幅下挫逾80美元，但是避险情绪叠加美联储降息的预期继续支撑金价。本周关注美国ISM制造业和服务业PMI，同时还需关注非农数据，如果数据进一步走软，料会进一步强化美联储降息预期，目前市场预期美联储将在3Month or4月降息。同时关注本周二民主党初选，如果桑德斯继续保持优势，料进一步支撑金价。
　　
　　风险资产和避险资产在3month2日亚洲交易中继续波动。在上周末的新闻洪流强化了对公共卫生事件将严重损害全球经济的担忧之后，投资者考虑央行可能采取的干预措施。日本央行有关公共卫生事件情影响的声明表明，政策制定者准备采取预防性措施，而不是降低利率。以下是全球各资产类别的走势。上周五现货黄金大跌逾80美元。在美国股市创下7年最大单周下跌以及市场避险情绪大幅升温之际，黄金的表现令市场感到诧异。但分析人士指出，只有当遭遇类似近期市场动荡时期，黄金通常会随市场抛售以产生流动性和保证金。上一次见到这种情况是在2008Year to2009年金融危机期间。基于此，市场需关注以下五个方面以从中寻找市场走向的关键线索。
　　
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　　3.2Analysis of gold market trend:
　　
　　现货黄金上涨，日内由于投资者越来越押注美联储将降息以应对卫生风险的经济影响，美国国债继续上涨。基准10年期国债收益率再创记录新低。但因风险偏好情绪回暖，黄金涨势也不如之前时期，实物需求的担忧不容忽视，鉴于多空因素各有，金价可能徘徊于1600一段时间。
　　
Technically speaking, the daily chartMACDHigh dead cross,KDJHigh dead cross,5Daily moving average underpass10日均线初步结成死叉，后市存在进一步下行风险；初步支撑在布林线中轨1592.53Nearby,2month10The daily high is supported by1577.05Nearby,2month12Daily low point support at1561.93Nearby,2month5Daily low point support at1547.57附近；鉴于上一交易日金价跌幅较大，短线仍然存在温和反弹或者震荡调整的可能性；上方初步阻力在1month8Daily high point1611.42Nearby, pay close attention10Daily moving average1624.65附近阻力，上周二和上周三的低点也都在该位置附近，若不能顶破该阻力，则后市仍偏向震荡下行；若回升至该位置上方，则削弱后市看空信号。综合来看：今日短线操作思路上志豪点金个人建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1615-1617Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1590-1592Frontline support.
　　
　　3.2Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Gold rebound1615-1617Short (buy down) two tenths of a position nearby, stop loss4Points, target1600-1595Nearby. Break the position to see1590frontline;
　　
Multiple order strategy:
　　
Gold Callback1590-1592Nearby long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss4Points, target1610-1612Nearby, break down and take a look1615frontline;
　　
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　　3.2crude oilFundamental and technical analysis:
　　
　　3month2日亚洲时段，美元指数小幅下探，再创近四周新低至97.83附近，美联储3月份降息预期的升温对汇价拖累明显，短线料仍处于弱势；现货黄金则小幅反弹，避险需求和美元的走弱给金价提供支撑，但技术面卖压较强令金价受限；原油市场，油价探底回升，糟糕的需求预期对油价拖累明显，不过亚洲股市反弹给油价提供了一些支撑，而且本周OPEC+较大可能会扩大减产规模。
　　
　　技术面来看，原油上周弱势下跌五连阴。几乎是开盘无反弹式的弱势破低下行，周线低位继续放量收盘大阴线，最低至43.80.本周开盘还伴随跳空低开下行进一步刷新43.50低位。周K线进一步下探当中。日图一直连阴弱势下行，暂时还未出现止跌出现。伴随着快速的下探回升反抽收复失地的走法还没有，K线形态上也是弱势延续收低。日图依旧偏空。
　　
Short line4Hour from54.60高点下行以来。呈现出一波45角度式的单边弱势下跌，弱势阴跌贴着短期均线极弱下跌，上周的走法是亚欧盘阴跌，美盘尾盘时段伴随一波反抽修正，隔日再进一步弱势下行。本周周初仍要留意是否延续这种节奏？还是说改变走法。亚欧盘反弹美盘下行。重点留意一下今日的走法。目前4hour10均线依旧是空头压制点，要反转弱势空头。首先得站稳10单位均线。不然这种弱势还将继续延续，不过K线形态显示下行稍有放缓，附图指标也处于低位。随时都有超跌反弹的可能。趋势上依旧偏空，但目前所处位置。志豪个人认为多空都有机会。同样阴跌下探的过程。低位做多也是会伴随反抽的。综合来看，今日线操作思路上志豪点金个人建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅；上方关注46.6-46.8Resistance, pay attention below44.8-45.0Support!
　　
　　3.2Reference for crude oil operation strategy:
　　
Empty order strategy:
　　
Above the rebound of crude oil46.6-46.8Short selling nearby(Buy down), two tenths of a position, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target45.8-45.5Nearby; Dislocation45.0Near.
　　
Multi order strategy:
　　
Below the crude oil correction44.8-45.0Nearby long (buy up), 2/10 positions, stop loss0.4USD, target46.0-46.5Nearby; Dislocation47.0Near.
　　
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