Zhou Hongjin:2.28黄金短线下滑，原油暴跌破低-晚间黄金原油行情走势分析操作策略

Summary:goldTrend analysis, gold trading strategy, gold market analysiscrude oilTrend analysis and crude oil operation suggestions
　　在风险市场的投资活动中，规避和防范风险是第一要务，也是取得长期成功的保障，顺应价格运动趋势从而顺势而为是第二要务，也是市场生存的不二法则，牢牢把握这二点是走向投资成功之路的必备前提！
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　　2month28日，现货黄金价格下滑，创下一周新低至1621.29dollar/盎司。但金价仍获得支撑，本月迄今累计上涨约2.4%，为连续第三个月线上涨。因全球公共卫生事件快速蔓延提高了市场对主要央行的降息预期。从伊朗到澳洲等多国政府都关闭了学校，取消大型活动，囤积医疗用品，并做好了应急准备。WHO表示，所有国家都需要做好抗击新冠病毒的准备。原油可能创出近九年来最大周线跌幅，因全球公共卫生事件蔓延加剧了需求放缓担忧。鸿金认为，OPEC+进一步减产的幅度要比其技术委员会建议的每天60万桶大得多。第二季度至少再减产10010000 barrels/日。我们承认，之前低估了过去几周需求端遭到的破坏性打击。

1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold

　　现货黄金下跌，现报1630.53dollar/Ounces, decline0.86%；尽管卫生事件在全球范围内蔓延，金融市场充斥着恐慌情绪，但避险需求近期对金价影响有限，鉴于全球经济不可避免遭遇冲击，这可能冲击实物黄金的需求，投资者对黄金进一步走高保持谨慎态度，投机多头获利了结头寸，且当下大宗商品暴跌，商品属性也令黄金有所承压。

　　技术面来看，由于公共卫生事件在全球的发展，美联储三月份降息预期显著升温，令美元承压，全球股市下跌，给金价提供支撑；但金价在过去两个交易日受阻于1660Nearby resistance,K线录得较长的上引线，指示上方阻力较强，日线MACD红能持续萎缩，KDJ死叉运行，金价短线存在震荡筑顶的迹象，初步支撑在日内低点1621.29Nearby,1month8The daily high is supported by1611.42Nearby, then1600整数关口，一旦失守该位置，短线顶部信号将得到确认；上方初步阻力在1650关口附近，然后是隔夜高点1660.38位置，进一步阻力在2month25Daily high point1664.04附近，若金价意外顶破该位置，则增加后市进一步冲高的机会。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上周鸿金（zh66646）My personal suggestion is to prioritize high altitude and prioritize low altitude;

Focus on resistance above:1650.00；1660.00；

Focus on support below: 1621.29；1611.42；

Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:

Short order suggestion: rebound1650Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1640-1638；

Multiple order suggestion: callback1622Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1638-1640；

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2、 Analysis of the trend of US crude oil

　　国际油价继续下跌，美原油现报45.69dollar/Barrel, decline2.97%；对卫生风险影响需求的担忧似乎没有缓和的迹象。澳大利亚联邦银行表示自卫生风险爆发以来，原油价格下跌反映出这种大宗商品对全球增长忧虑的敏感性，如果卫生风险继续蔓延，原油需求可能进一步恶化。《金融时报》援引五位知情人士报道称，沙特希望包括俄罗斯在内的同盟同意进一步集体减产10010000 barrels/日。但俄罗斯对于是否参与进一步减产还没拿定注意。

　　技术面来看，公共卫生事件在海外的局势令市场担忧情绪进一步升温，全球股市普遍下跌，这加剧了市场对原油需求前景的担忧，油价在跌破49.31支撑后加速下跌，本周以累计下跌近15%可能录得近十年最大单周跌幅。日线MACDDead fork operation,KDJ死叉运行，油价一度失守45关口，存进一步下跌风险；初步支撑在2019year1month2Daily low point44.35附近，该位置支撑比较强，一旦跌破则看向2018Annual low point42.36Location. However, the poor demand outlook will increaseOPEC+There is a possibility of expanding the scale of production reduction next week, and Saudi Arabia is also seeking to further expand the scale of production reduction100Ten thousand days/桶，这可能会限制油价的短线下行空间；且由于油价短线跌幅过大，今日周线，月线收官也需要提防部分空单平仓离场或者调整仓位，若油价坚守44.35支撑上方，油价可能存在温和反弹的机会；上方初步阻力参考2018year12month26Daily high point47.00Nearby,5Daily moving average resistance48.36Nearby,2month3Resistance at daily low points49.31附近，油价需要重新运行在该位置上方才能有效削弱目前的看空信号；综合来看，今日操作思路上周鸿金（zh66646）My personal suggestion is to prioritize high altitude and prioritize low altitude;

Focus on resistance above:47.00；48.36；

Focus on support below:44.35；42.36；

Suggestions for short-term crude oil operations:

Short order suggestion: rebound46.8Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target45.2-45.0；

　　多单建议：盘中实时安排，暂不提前给出；

　　行情实时变化，策略仅供参考，实时进出场点位及中长线布局咨询周鸿金免费获取！

Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.

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　　金融投资者失败的根源，就在于当他面对市场的走势，总是以自我为中心，把自己的主观猜测、估计、判断等妄想强加在价格走势的身上，与趋势进行争斗，最终会以自己的失败而告终！解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资趋势，对黄金、原油投资有兴趣却无从下手或者已经在接触却并不理想的朋友，订阅关注“周鸿金”（zh66646）Get the latest financial information, daily market trend analysis, real-time trading strategies, and medium to long term layout.
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