兴业投资：供需前景改善，美油再创多月新高

兴业投资：供需前景改善，美油再创多月新高
2019year12month19day
Due to the United StatesEIAcrude oil库存下降，且中美工业生产数据向好及贸易局势好转将提升原油需求，国际油价周三连续第五个交易日走高，再创三个月新高。不过美中贸易协议仍然存疑和英国无协议脱欧风险重现，抑制了油价的上行空间。美国截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil1monthfuturesIncome increase0.30USD, or0.50%Report60.85dollar/Bucket, highest reach61.17dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.29dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil2Monthly futures up0.35USD, or0.53%Report66.12dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray66.39dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to65.53dollar/Bucket.
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of12month13During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased108.510000 barrels to4.468亿桶，市场预期减少128.810000 barrels;Reduced inventory of Cushing crude oil26.5Ten thousand barrels, continuous6周下滑;Refined oil inventory increase150.9Ten thousand barrels, continuous4周增长，市场预期减少31.410000 barrels;Increase in gasoline inventory252.9Ten thousand barrels, continuous6周增长，市场预期增加190万桶。此外，上周美国国内原油产量持平于128010000 barrels/日。尽管库存降幅低于预期，但美油和布油仍爆发了上行势头。
随着第一阶段贸易协议的完成和OPEC+的进一步减产，地缘政治紧张局势得以缓解，以及中国和美国令人鼓舞的工业生产数据推动了原油价格的持续上涨。
然而，加拿大皇家银行表示，如果贸易进展不能转化为具体的经济增长，油价可能停滞不前。经济复苏的萌芽将有助于提振市场人气。但对于宏观经济的担忧、石油需求疲软以及生产商对冲，可能继续成为近期油价的不利因素。
面对市场动态的这些变化，摩根大通上调了2020年油价预估，并预期明年油市供需平衡将收紧。该行将2020年美油平均价格预期从57.50The US dollar has been raised to60美元，将布油平均价格预期从稍早前的每桶59The US dollar has been raised to64.5美元。摩根大通表示：“我们仍预计全球石油需求将以每天100万桶的速度增长。OPEC、俄罗斯和其他产油国，即OPEC+，已同意在2020年第一季度将日产量再削减50万桶。”
路透社周三援引四位熟悉谈判的消息人士的话报道中称，沙特阿拉伯寻求其海湾盟友阿拉伯联合酋长国(阿联酋)的帮助，说服俄罗斯在本月OPEC会议上签署进一步削减石油供应的协议。根据欧佩克的消息来源和能源方面等分析师的估计，“如果没有俄罗斯的参与，全球油价很可能已经下跌。”
USD Index
美元指数周三开盘后自97.185水平持续上扬，触及97.437多日新高，美国近期公布的多项经济数据好于预期，为美联储不会很快降息提供更多有利证据，同时美联储官员讲话整体偏鹰，支撑了美元。
纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周三表示，美联储在改变货币政策之前，必须看到经济状况发生重大变化。“货币政策处于良好状态，”威廉姆斯对CNBCreporterSteve Liesman称，“但是，正如我们过去已经证明的那样，如果经济条件发生变化，发生实质性的变化……显然，我们准备相应地调整我们的政策观点。通过今年的降息，我们创造了一种货币政策支持和适应增长的局面。考虑到目前的经济形势，这是一个不错的立场。”
芝加哥联储主席埃文斯周三在印第安纳州经济俱乐部发表讲话称，他预计美联储目前不需要进一步降息，他对美联储政策制定者预测的2021Year and2022年两次加息的中间值“相当满意”。他认为将通胀率提高到2%是非常重要的，预计到2022年底通胀率将达到2.2%。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道扩散，油价跟随上轨发展;14and20Daily moving average bullish;随机指标转向走低。
4小时图：保利加通道上扬，油价在中轨上方发展;14and20Bullish moving average;随机指标转向走低。
1小时图：保利加通道上扬，油价靠近中轨发展;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;随机指标接近超卖区转向走高。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days59.70-62.00Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above12month18Daily high point61.15After breaking through, we will explore further5month23Daily high point61.40And then62.00Psychological barriers and9month17Daily high point62.60, and9month16Daily high point63.35and5month20Daily high point63.80;And the following supports attention12month18Daily low point60.30Falling below will lead to exploration12month16Daily low point59.70And then12month13Daily low point59.25and12month12Daily low point58.70, and12month11Daily low point58.10and12month6Daily low point57.70。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道扩散，油价跟随上轨发展;14and20Daily moving average bullish;The random indicator continues to rise in the overbought area.
4Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14and20Bullish moving average;Random indicators are attempting to decline.
1小时图：保利加通道上扬，油价向中轨靠近;14and20Hourly moving average bullish;随机指标接近超卖区转向走高。
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days65.10-67.45Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above12month18Daily high point66.40Breakthrough will be explored7month1Daily high point66.70And then7month15Daily high point67.45and7month11Daily high point67.65, and68.00Psychological barriers and9month17Daily high point69.20;And the following supports attention12month18Daily low point65.50Falling below will lead to exploration12month17Daily low point65.10And then12month13Daily low point64.50and12month12Daily low point63.85, and12month11Daily low point63.00, and12month5Daily low point62.70。
Follow on Thursday:
Weekly unemployment claims in the United States
U.S.A12Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
US Q3 Current Account
U.S.A11Monthly Housing Sales