花旗银行分析称,全球经济下行依然是导致加拿大央行降息的主要风险。此前加拿大央行行长波洛兹否认会采取保险性降息,这意味着降息只会伴随着外部前景的实质性恶化。市场目前定价加央行在未来6个月内降息25The probability of a basis point is100%。
According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve12月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%The probability of the interval is94.8%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is5.2%; By next year1月维持当前利率在1.50%-1.75%The probability of the interval is84.9%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is10.5%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is4.6%。
日内重点关注
17:00 Switzerland11monthZEWInvestor confidence index
21:30 US Q3 ActualGDPRevised value of annualized quarterly rate
21:30 From the United States to11month23Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week
21:30 U.S.A10Monthly rate of durable goods orders
22:45 U.S.A11Month ChicagoPMI
23:00 U.S.A10Monthly personal expenditure rate
23:00 U.S.A10Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing
23:00 U.S.A10Monthly CorePCE物价指数月率及年率
The next day03:00 Federal Reserve Announces Economic Situation Brown Book
Technical aspect:
国际黄金周二触底反弹再度上演V型反转,周二早间金价自1455一线温和下行维持低点1453一线区间窄幅维持,上午盘金价小幅加速下探触及1452Form a short line after a single lineV型反转,亚盘交易时间金价逐步维稳短线反弹压力位价格区间形成短线上行较为良好延续。下午盘金价维持偏震荡走高延续最高触及1459一线后震荡回落。晚间美盘交易时间金价震荡下行扩大日内回落幅度,随着美经济数据陆续公布金价加速下探最低触及1450一线后形成底部V型反转,周三凌晨金价最高触及1463一线后维持高点区间窄幅收盘。日线录得下影线较长小幅阳线,短期金价仍承压于日线移动平均线技术指标压力位价格,近期金价下行中并未表现出明显单边空头动能,关注短期反弹区间维持状况,当前短线底部反转多头延续良好。小时线显示短期金价反弹幅度扩大再度维稳于日线移动平均线技术指标支撑位价格上方,短期均线呈向上交叉金叉排列,日内重点关注高点区间维持状况,短期处于偏多表现。
Bo Hu's Message on Gold: As a lone soldier, do you feel like you are walking on thin ice in this financial market and struggling to move forward? If you are tired of unproductive investments and lost in the foggy market; If you suffer losses one after another but feel unwilling. So, it's time to change the status quo. Good birds choose trees to live on, your choices determine your future!
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