兴业投资：受减产预期和地缘局势支撑 油价持稳于两个月高位

兴业投资：受减产预期和地缘局势支撑 油价持稳于两个月高位
2019year11month25day
sufferOPEC及其盟友有望延长减产协议至2020年中和中东地缘政治紧张局势的提振，国际油价上周五早盘刷新两个多月高位，但随着贸易不确定重现，投资者获利了结，以及美元全线走强，拖累油价反转走低，不过美国石油钻井平台数继续下降，这限制了油价下行空间。美国截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil1monthfuturesClosing down0.31USD, or0.53%Report57.98dollar/Bucket, highest reach58.73dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to57.49dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil1Monthly futures closed lower0.1USD, or0.16%Report63.61dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray64.24dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to62.96dollar/Bucket.
据报导称OPEC产油国与俄罗斯12month5日在维也纳召开的OPEC政策会议时，料将现行减产措施再延长三个月至2020年中。俄罗斯方面表示将继续与OPEC合作，以保持全球石油市场的平衡;OPEC消息人士透露，为了支撑油价，OPEC及其盟友可能会在下月开会时将石油限产措施延长至明年6月。消息人士表示，目前看来不太可能正式宣布更大幅度的减产。
此外，伊朗和伊拉克的动乱令投资者担忧原油供给可能会受到影响，也一定程度利好油价。OPEC第二大成员国的伊拉克，最近几周暴力镇压了反腐败示威活动，这些示威活动已扩散到南部石油中心巴士拉。伊朗石油出口因美国制裁而大幅减少，该国也残酷打压了经济停滞引发的抗议活动。法新社援引以色列总理本杰明?内塔尼亚胡的评论称，伊朗正计划对这个犹太国家发动袭击。此外，来自半岛电视台的新闻提到，伊朗逮捕了一些雇佣兵，并声称美国、以色列和沙特阿拉伯利用了该国最近的抗议活动。伊朗第一副总统提出警告称，外部势力不要干涉伊朗内政。若一些地区国家被证实与伊朗动乱有关，那么这些国家“日子将不好过”。
Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(Baker Hughes)The latest data shows that as of11month22During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased3Seat to671座，连续五周下滑;美国石油和天然气活跃钻井总数减少3Seat to803seat;天然气活跃钻井数持平于129座。石油活跃钻井数减少意味着原油产量下降，这为油价提供一些支持。
即便如此，美元的强势仍然会对商品价格产生抑制作用，因此，需要对市场情绪的任何转变进行密切关注，以确定进一步的方向。
USD Index
美元指数上周五早盘短暂调整至97.798低点后再度上扬，突破98.00心理关口，触及98.272的一周新高，因美国公布的经济数据乐观，强化了美联储将在未来几次政策会议上按兵不动的意愿，对美元构成有力支撑。此外，美国国债收益率上涨，也提振了美元的吸引力。
IHS Markit上周五发布的采购经理人指数(PMI)Data display, United States11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIInitial value increased to52.2Better than expected51.5And before value51.3;U.S.A11monthMarkitService industryPMIInitial value increased to51.5Better than expected51And before value50.6。此采购经理人调查显示，美国11月制造业产出加速增长，创下七个月来的最快增速，服务业活动增长速度也高于预期，这是美国经济在贸易摩擦和其他不利因素的影响下持续显现韧性的迹象。
此外，密歇根大学公布的消费者信心调查数据也表现强劲。11月份消费者信心指数从上个月的95.5Climb to96.8，市场预期将降至94.9。
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily image: The Poly Plus channel slightly rises, with oil prices approaching the upper track of development;14and20日均线上行势头趋缓;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
4小时图：保利加通道上扬，油价自上轨回撤;14and20Bullish moving average;Random indicators fluctuate lower.
1小时图：保利加通道扩散，油价在中轨下方发展;14and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days56.60-59.50Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month22Daily high point58.75After breaking through, we will explore further9month23Daily high point58.85And then9month19Daily high point59.50and60.00Psychological barriers, and7month15Daily high point60.90and9month17Daily high point62.55;And the following supports attention11month22Daily high point57.50Falling below will lead to exploration11month21Daily low point56.60And then11month8Daily low point55.75and11month20Daily low point54.85, and11month1Daily low point54.10and10month31Daily low point53.70。
Brent crude oil
Daily image: Poly Plus channel diffusion, oil prices approaching the upper track of development;14and20Daily moving average bullish;随机指标进入超买区。
4小时图：保利加通道上扬，油价自上轨回撤;14and20Bullish moving average;随机指标试图转向走高。
1小时图：保利加通道下滑，油价在中轨下方发展;14小时均线下穿20Hourly moving average;Random indicators have declined.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days61.90-64.60Oscillation within the range can be attempted by throwing high and absorbing low. Attention to resistance above11month22Daily high point64.25Breakthrough will be explored9month24Daily high point64.60And then9month20Daily high point65.25and9month19Daily high point65.55, and66.00Psychological barriers and7month16Daily high point67.05;And the following supports attention11month22Daily low point62.95Falling below will lead to exploration11month21Daily low point61.90And then11month13Daily low point61.20and11month19Daily low point60.65, and60.00Psychological barriers and11month1Daily low point59.40。
Follow on Monday:
U.S.A10Monthly Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index
U.S.A11Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month
美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话