MBG Markets：欧美PMI良莠分化，加拿大零售稍缓担忧

欧元区服务业突发走软，欧元单日大跌(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar73Points, closing down0.41%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5趋于下行，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to42-43一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注1.1085Below support attention1.1030。
　　
Fundamentals:eurozone11Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value recorded46.6，创三个月最高水平；11月制造业产出指数录得47.1，同创三个月最高水平。但令人意外的是，欧元区11Monthly service industryPMIInitial value recorded51.5, for10The lowest in months.Markit首席经济学家评论称：11月份，欧元区经济连续第三个月保持停滞，PMI数据表现不佳，显示四季度GDP季度增速将自三季度的0.2%Slide down to0.1%。欧洲央行行长拉加德：将会继续推行支持经济增长的货币政策，并在维护物价稳定的前提下应对未来风险；欧元区内部需求过于疲弱且通胀过低，因此各国间的再平衡变得更加困难；将在近期内开始政策评估。
　　
U.S.APMI好于预期，消费者信心同见回暖(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day10Individual points, closing up0.06%，连续第四日收阳。日线BOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价隔夜上破布林中轨下行；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to54-55一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注109.25Below support attention108.22。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial valuenewspaper52.2，优于预期51.5及前值51.3；U.S.A11monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial valuenewspaper51.6，优于预期51及前值50.6。机构评论称，美国11monthPMI初值出现可喜的上升，这进一步证明最近美国经济的疲软时期可能已经过去。受新业务流入改善的推动，11月份制造业和服务业的总产出出现了自7月以来的最快增速。美国11Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month96.8，好于前值和预期。多项经济数据走强支撑美元。
　　
核心零售销售稍好，加元延续盘整(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达47Individual points, closing up0.16%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to62-63一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力观察1.3325Below support attention10日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:Canada9Monthly retail sales ratenewspaper-0.1%符合市场预期，前值由-0.1%Upgraded to0.1%；Canada9月核心零售销售月率Recorded0.2%，优于市场预期0.1%及前值-0.2%。宏利资管首席经济学家：加拿大核心通胀连续6个月处在或略高于2%，新增就业维持稳健，第三季度零售销售量尽管温和但也是年内最佳。这样的经济并不会促使加拿大央行降息。该行希望看到切实证据证明经济需要降息的刺激。在2015年时，该行降息是出于对油价大跌的负面预期。而现今国际贸易不确定性对经济的冲击很难预估，所以除非出现更糟的前景预期，否则加行不会降息。
　　
　　
　　
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